Philly Front Office

The last two weeks have been infuriating. The overarching narrative hasn’t been Chiefs v. Eagles, it’s been Chiefs v. History. Everywhere we look it’s Chiefs inundation. It’s the Kelce brothers, it’s State Farm commercials, it’s Taylor Swift, it’s every talking head on every program…they are all stumping the Chiefs (I love you Jason, but everyone outside of Philly associates you with them now). Experts on ESPN, The Ringer (the absolute worst), and every other sports dispensary are picking the Chiefs more than 2-1.

The most common refrain is Mahomes Magic or some other non-descript bullshit that implies the Chiefs are an inevitability rather than an opponent. He’s amazing, the best QB in football, but Michael Jordan Mahomes he is not. He has lost. He has failed. He is human.

I can accept that these outlets employ loudmouths rather than real analysts for the most part. I give them a pass for what they are. It isn’t everyone though. The real cowards are the ones who know what they are talking about and begin their Chiefs reasoning with “The Eagles have the better roster but…” or “The Eagles have the better offense and the better defense but…”. HOW DO YOU EVEN FINISH THAT SENTENCE??? They do though, oh they do. “…you just can’t bet against Mahomes.” Come on! Have a spine. You know your gut isn’t just telling you the Eagles are better, it’s telling you the Eagles are significantly better. The Chiefs were better than the Eagles two years ago when the field was slop, were at least even with the 49ers last year, and were better than the Bucs when they got their doors blown off in Super Bowl 55. This Eagles team is better and more complete than all of them.

The real experts see this. The ones that have the guts to pick the Eagles see the stats but they also see the matchups:

Chiefs O-Line v. Eagles D-Line

• The Chiefs will not survive with Mike Caliendo doing bad impressions of a lineman in front of Jalen Carter. They will need to cheat with Creed Humphrey. This means they will have to manipulate their schemes every play to deal with him. Milton Williams will be single covered and have the opportunity to earn a $100m contract next month with a big game.
• With the Chiefs focused on Carter, no one has been talking about Nolan Smith. He is my bet to be the real MVP of this game. He will be single covered against converted guard Joe Thuney. His relentless motor should wear down his opponent and make Mahomes life a living hell. They can only double him by putting Kelce in front of him to chip block or by abandoning the running game completely. If he is regularly in the backfield, Mahomes will not have time to throw and our secondary can hunt turnovers. This is how the Bucs won 4 years ago.
• With these guys taking all the attention, expect Uncle Vic to send Baun on random blitzes to really force the issue or to just sit back and watch him and Cooper DeJean blow up his check downs.

Eagles Running Game v. Chiefs D-Line

• Some pundits have gone so far as to say that this is an advantage for the Chiefs. WTF? The Chiefs are ranked as the 8th best rush defense in the league but it’s misleading. Not only are teams usually losing to the Chiefs and therefore not running the ball, but they just haven’t faced many good rushing teams. The best rushing team they faced all year was the Ravens in week 1…they went for 170 yards!
• The Eagles on the other hand have faced the best rushing defenses. Despite going down very early and before the defense really locked in, we still had 100+ yards on the ground against Cleveland and Tampa. When we faced Baltimore in Baltimore (you know the team with the #1 rush defense?) we put up 140 yards. The Packers have the 7th best rush defense, we gashed them for 160+…twice.
• Saquan Barkley.

Mahomes v. Eagles Secondary

• Last Super Bowl the Eagles had no pass rush. It wasn’t supposed to be like that, but the “Sodfather” had the field in such bad shape that neither team could get any type of rush going. Our biggest advantage was neutralized without any special scheming. This game will be played on artificial turf.
• The Eagles had a solid secondary last time, but without a pass rush Mahomes was able to pick them apart. This year, the Eagles boast 4 above average corners with Mitchell and DeJean ranking higher than most despite being rookies. Safeties Blankenship and CJGJ are ballhawks who will be looking to take advantage.
• Travis Kelce ate up Trent Edwards 2 years ago. He is no Zack Baun. Baun has become one of the top coverage linebackers in the game this season. If the Chiefs are finding the Eagles pass rush problematic and elect to put a second tight end to help block, then Cooper DeJean could end up with the Kelce assignment. This is a good thing.
• Numbers have come out that Vic Fangio has not faired to well in his career against Andy Reid. These numbers are severely skewed. Those teams didn’t have nearly this amount of talent, and his offenses could not hold on to the ball. Those teams still held their own. This Eagles defense is lightyears ahead of what Jonathan Gannon was doing 2 years ago.

Hurts v. the Chiefs Secondary

• For all the shit he has received, Hurts always shows up to big games. Outside of the one random fumble, he outplayed Mahomes 2 years ago. This despite KCs secondary being significantly better back then. L’Jarius Sneed was still on his way to becoming one of the highest paid CBs in football. With Trent McDuffie, they were a formidable duo. Sneed is gone and replaced with 7th rounder Jaylon Watson. He will have to defend DeVonta Smith.
• The Eagles also do not have complete waste of space Quez Watkins on the team this year. He dropped a huge pass in the Super Bowl as we all wish we could forget. Jahan Dotson does not get a ton of opportunities but is still not the negative player Watkins was.
• Dallas Goedert is not only healthy but playing his best football. Steve Spagnola is known to blitz exotically. Look for Goedert to have a big game in the middle of the field.

Turnovers

• The Eagles have yet to turn the ball over in the postseason.
• They are +10 in turnover differential in the playoffs.
• Hurts has thrown 1 pick since week 3.
• To be fair, Mahomes has not thrown a pick since before Thanksgiving but the Chiefs haven’t caused any turnovers yet in the playoffs and sit -1.
• Turnovers win playoff games.

Intangibles

• I am getting into Mahomes Magic territory here, but I believe in Jalen Hurts. I don’t just think he’s a winner, I think he elevates in the biggest games and he KNOWS this is the biggest game of his life. This is the game that will validate everything he does. He will be Super Bowl Winner and MVP Jalen Hurts. No one will be able to question him again. He will not lose this game.

Prediction

My whole life I have hated feeling confident going into a sporting event. I learned early never to do that (that’s when they get ya!). But something happened on the morning of Feb. 4th, 2018, I felt good. It was Super Bowl 52 and I just knew we were going to win. It scared the hell out of me. Was I letting my team down by being confident (fandom is so weird)? I wasn’t. We won. I didn’t feel that way 2 years ago. We lost. This time, from the moment the Chiefs became the opponent, I felt we are going to win. We aren’t just going to win either, we are going to beat their ass. We are the better team. Eagles 35 – Chiefs 21.