Philly Front Office

Good morning! Another Sixers loss is in the books, flailing in another poor showing against the Celtics 124-104. This makes them 20-35 on the year. Personally, I think losses are good right now. I want them to do whatever they can to improve their odds at a bottom 6 record and thus keeping their first-round draft pick which is otherwise owed to OKC. The Sixers, however, foolishly believe wins are good. They want to win and keep trotting their injured stars out there to do so. It’s maddening. Since we have opposite goals, why don’t we start tracking both?

Lottery Odds

The only way the Sixers keep their draft pick is if it lands in the bottom 6 post lottery. Currently we are tied with Brooklyn for the 6th worst record in the league. There are two ways this can happen. First, winning the lottery. This does not just mean #1 overall as the top 4 picks are all determined by the whim of the sacred ping pong balls. Second, by finishing with the 6th worst record and everything goes chalk, we will keep the pick at #6. Since we are tied with Brooklyn, these odds are slightly less than having the 6th spot alone. If we tie for #6, this is determined by a random drawing, which WTF!!!! This makes our odds of keeping the pick as follows:

1 – 8.25%

2 – 8.5%

3 – 8.75%

4 – 8.85%

6 – 8.6% (assuming we win the tie breaker)

Total – 42.95% chance to keep the pick

Playoff Odds

The playoffs got weird a few years ago with the introduction of the play-in tournament. Now the 7 and 8 seeds are determined by the 7-10 best records playing each other. Currently the Sixers are 1.5 games behind the Chicago Bulls (22-34) for #10. If the Sixers qualify for the play-in but don’t end up making the playoffs, they still have a chance to win the lottery.

Per Basketball Reference, our current odds to finish in each place are:

10 – 33.6%

11 or worse – 62.2%

Odds of winning the play-in and making the playoffs – 7.6%

For all you completely jaded fans out there:

49.45% chance of missing the playoffs AND not keeping a draft pick.

Next up: Home against Brooklyn (BIG TANK GAME) on Saturday 2/22.