Philly Front Office

Last night the Brooklyn Nets lost to the Chicago Bulls despite holding a 10-point lead going into the fourth quarter. A win would have sent the Sixers into sole possession of the 5th lottery spot. Alas, it was not to be. Not satisfied with just this successful outcome, this morning it came out that Cam Thomas, their leading scorer, was done for the season. Diabolical chess move by the Nets. Meanwhile, around that same time it was announced that the league was looking into the Sixers for violating the player participation policy following their loss to the Pacers where they rolled with maybe the worst 8-man rotation in history. It seems we are destined to do this forever.

If the Sixers finish with a worse record than the Nets it will be the biggest victory the team has had in a very long time, since…damn…2001? Yup, Game 7 Eastern Conference Finals against Milwaukee. That is not hyperbole. We certainly haven’t beaten a worthy opponent in the Process era. Beating a Bulls team without Derrick Rose and Joquim Noah doesn’t count either (that was fun though). Is it even possible?

Both teams are 22-44 with 16 games to play. Brooklyn has 6 games remaining against bad teams (10th or worse) plus 2 winnable games against Atlanta. The Sixers don’t have it nearly as good, with 7 against bad teams plus 4 against Atlanta and Miami. We also have the possible return of Tyrese Maxey hanging around our necks. It’s going to take a remarkable amount of luck for Brooklyn to finish these last 16 with a better record than us.

Lottery Odds

Right now, we are still tied for the 5th best lottery odds, with those persistent Nets. Thankfully the Raptors have won 6 of 7 and have one of the easiest remaining schedules. Using the same criteria as above, they have 15 games remaining and 13 of them are against bad teams including Brooklyn and Philly. They are in trouble.

1 – 9.8%

2 – 9.9%

3 – 10.0%

4 – 10.1%

5 – 2.2%

6 – 20.1% (Odds split due to tiebreaker)

Total – 62.1 % chance to keep the pick (no change)

Playoff Odds

We are now 6 games clear of the play-in and should probably get a magic number going. Ok, I found it. It is 11. Any combination of 11 Bulls wins and Sixers losses eliminates us from play-in contention.

(Note: If the Sixers qualify for the play-in but don’t end up making the playoffs, they still have a chance to win the lottery)

Per Basketball Reference, our current odds to finish in each place are:

10 or better – .75%

11 or worse – 99.25% (3.55% increase)

Odds of winning the play-in and making the playoffs – .1% (decrease of .7%)

For those who just want to watch the world burn:

37.8% chance of missing the playoffs AND not keeping a draft pick (decrease of .7%)

Games to Follow Coming Up

Numbers in parenthesis is the number of games ahead and behind the Sixers in the standings. Sixers record is 22-44 with 16 games to play.

March 15 (BEWARE)

• Boston at Brooklyn (EVEN) – No chance
• New Orleans (-4.5) at San Antonio – San Antonio is trying to back slide into the lottery VERY hard. IT would be really nice for the Pelicans to pull this out.

March 16

• Sixers at Dallas – The Mavericks are still more competent than us and it has already been determined that Tyrese Maxey won’t play in this one, but they have lost 9 of 11 and all their stars are gone (either hurt or stupidly moved for barely anything). Just handle your business Sixers.
• Atlanta at Brooklyn (EVEN) – Second game of a back to back for Brooklyn. This is one of those games we need the Nets to win to have any chance of penetrating their defenses.
• Toronto (-1.5) at Portland – I’m not going to get greedy with the Raptors, you guys have been great. This is a winnable game, but don’t expect Toronto to be playing anyone and Portland is having a very good second half.