Philly Front Office

The thing that kills me about the Braves and their fans isn’t that they continue to trick players into signing team friendly deals, it isn’t that opponents keep making sweetheart trades with them, and it isn’t that they keep developing MLB level talent seemingly at will; it isn’t even the chop! It’s that despite these advantages; they still cry their eyes out with excuses every time they lose. Grow up and blame yourselves once in a while like Phillies and Mets fans do. It’s not injuries, it’s not too much rest, it’s not luck, and no matter how many “well, actually” arguments you want to start, you lost. Deal with it.

All the above is true though. The roster is still stacked thanks to the never-ending prospect pipeline and great trades while their two injured stars look ready to come back and make a difference. They are a formidable group from top to bottom. It makes my blood boil, but we have to deal with them.

Lineup

As if the lineup wasn’t annoying enough as is, they signed Jurickson Profar. This not only helps them bridge the gap until Acuna returns from injury, but gives them a contact hitting on base machine in a lineup that already had a few of those. He would have looked good in left field at CBP, I’m not going to lie.

Speaking of Acuna, he is expected back by June. He is an absolute force on the field, at least until the playoffs come around. Before getting hurt last year, he was in the midst of a down season. Still, that is not something I am counting on. He is just too good of a talent and maybe the best player in baseball at his peak, which wasn’t exactly very long ago.

The rest of lineup is a murderer’s row of under-market talent. Almost everyone on the roster signed team friendly extensions that allowed more and more players to get locked up for longer and longer periods. The only starter on the roster not signed through next season is Marcell Ozuna, who is playing out his own team friendly option this season. It’s enough to drive you crazy. I’ll do a deep dive into the absurd bargains that are the Braves contracts eventually (everyone should feel bad for Ozzie Albies).

Here is the optimal Braves lineup:

1. Ronald Acuna, RF (not trying to be an ass, I just don’t know how to put the right “c” character in his name)
2. Profar, LF
3. Austin Riley, 3b
4. Matt Olson, 1b
5. Marcel Ozuna, DH
6. Ozzie Albies, 2b
7. Sean Murphy, C
8. Michael Harris, CF
9. Orlando Arcia, SS

With the exception of Atta Boy Arcia, that’s as lethal a lineup as there is in baseball. The only hope is that the down seasons they all had last year were due to an actual downhill trajectory and not just injuries.

Rotation

We were all really hoping that Spencer Strider might not come back as sharp after surgery wiped out his 2024 season. So much for that. He was pumping upper 90s in his one spring start so far and will probably only miss a turn or two in the rotation. With him fully operational, they have the potential for a Death Star like rotation, albeit one with injury concerns. Even without Max Fried or a certified 5th starter, it still stacks up as one of the league’s best:

1. Strider
2. Chris Sale
3. Reynaldo Lopez
4. Spencer Shwellenbach
5. Grant Holmes or AJ Smith-Shawver

Strider and Sale are Cy Young Candidates with Sale winning last year. Lopez had a 1.99 ERA last year, but did not qualify for the ERA title due to a lack of innings. Shwellenbach is just another quality arm they I Dream of Genie blinked into existence.

Sale was brought in strictly to make the team more formidable in the playoffs. Unfortunately, he didn’t make it to the playoffs last year. It was his most healthy season in years, but he still didn’t make it to when the Braves needed him.

Bullpen

The one vulnerable spot in the armor is the bullpen. Ace reliever Joe Jimenez is out for the season and AJ Minter is now in Queens. This leaves Raisel Iglesias, Aaron Bummer, and a whole bunch of question marks. Those question marks are notable to Phillies fans though as they include old friends Hector Neris, Enyel de los Santos, and Craig Kimbral. Let’s all hope Kimbral blows one to the Phillies for some karma. He owes us after 2023 in Arizona.

Prospects

I neglected to mention that the team has possible plug and play prospects right where they need them. With no Sean Murphy at catcher for a little bit, they can turn to Drake Baldwin. The 5th starter role might eventually go to Hursten Waldrep. Both are rookies and ready for the majors. Of course they are. The Braves are probably just waiting to sign both for lifetime contracts at minimum wage before officially promoting them.

Cash and Trades

The Braves are running out a much lower payroll this year compared to last year and about $10m below the tax line. This is one big place the Braves differ from the Phillies and the Mets. The Braves are owned by a publicly traded company with a board of directors and what not. The number one goal of this team is to make money, not to compete, as all companies are. They do a great job of doing both, but there is no single guy in charge that can direct the team to spend more money than it needs to on a whim. Whereas Dave Dombrowski can convince John Middleton that he needs some extra cash, Alex Anthopoulos does not have that luxury. For the most part, the budget is the budget.

Still, they have money to spend and once again have assets to make moves. With the payroll around $40m less than last year, you could imagine them taking on higher payroll guys for lower prospect cost like they did with Raisel Iglesias two years ago. Just like the Phillies and Mets, they are going to be looking for a high leverage reliever at the deadline.

Prediction

It should be a total dogfight with the Braves and Phillies this season with the winner of the division getting to about 95 wins. The Braves in theory have the better lineup but have much higher injury concerns than the Phillies. If everyone stays healthy and reaches their potential, they will score mad runs, mad of them. That being said, the Phillies have the advantage in the rotation, but not by much. Where the Phillies might be 1-5 better than anyone on the Mets, the Braves have probably #2 and #3 on that same chart (and its close). Nearly the whole team got injured last season, but significant decreases in productivity were already showing after absurd career years in 2023. We’ll see what Braves team shows up this season, the world beaters of 2023 or the declining MASH unit from 2024.