Philly Front Office

With their loss to the Miami Heat last night, the Sixers were officially eliminated from the playoffs. We had a less than 1% of 1% chance of making it before, but now it’s set in stone. Being officially out of contention can close the book on the worst season of Sixers basketball of my lifetime. That’s not hyperbole either. The Process years had a plan and the Bynum year at least didn’t have the expectation of MORE Bynum. The specter of the Embiid contract albatross flies over this season much more ominously. There are only two outcomes now, we keep our draft pick or we don’t. All can be redeemed with that draft pick.

Something wonderful happened on the way to elimination last night, the Nets won! Our great and worthy opponent, who we are destined to battle from afar for the next 8 games all for statistically better odds of an unaware ping pong ball bouncing a certain way, dropped a game in the reverse standings. Should we tie for the 5th spot, the possibility of getting a top 4 pick do not change very much, they are just split evenly with our pickmate. However, should neither team win a lottery spot, the 5th/6th position is determined by a coin flip basically. Should a single team jump in the lottery, that coin flip could be the difference in dropping from 6th to 7th and losing the pick. EVERY spot counts.

Lottery Odds

The tie for the 5th spot has been…UNTIED. I know, I’m very clever.

1 – 10.5%

2 – 10.5%

3 – 10.6%

4 – 10.5%

5 – 2.2%

6 – 19.6%

Total – 63.9 % chance to keep the pick (up 1.8%)

Playoff Odds

Magic Elimination Number: 0. WE DID IT! Considering how bad the season has gone, how weird is it to remember only like 20 games ago the team was still desperately trying to win games and make the playoffs? Paul George was using pain killing injections to play with a ruined hand and Maxey was struggling through injuries of his own. Thankfully they pivoted and realized this season was simply cursed.

(Note: If the Sixers qualify for the play-in but don’t end up making the playoffs, they still have a chance to win the lottery)(UPDATE: WHO CARES!!!)

Per Basketball Reference, our current odds to finish in each place are:

10 or better – 0%

11 or worse – 100%

Odds of winning the play-in and making the playoffs – 0%

For those who just want to watch the world burn:

36.1% chance of missing the playoffs AND not keeping a draft pick

Games to Follow Coming Up

Numbers in parenthesis is the number of games ahead and behind the Sixers in the standings. Sixers record is 23-51 with 8 games to play.

March 30

• Charlotte at New Orleans (-3) – With 8 games left, the Pelicans would have to get decently hot for us to have a chance and the Sixers would have to end the season on a wild 15 game losing streak basically. They have winnable games against Charlotte and Brooklyn on the schedule, but the rest will be tough. Maybe OKC rests their entire lineup on the last game of the season? Perhaps a forfeit? We don’t want anyone getting hurt Thunder.
• Toronto (+4) at Sixers – What was once billed as The Most Important Game of the Season II, has lost some luster. The Raptors couldn’t overcome their superior talent and easy schedule and have lost serious ground in the tank race. We still need to lose this one, but with Toronto now nearing the purgatory of a 7th spot lock (2.5 behind Brooklyn but 4.5 up on San Antonio), maybe they will try a little harder.