Philly Front Office

(SIXERS GET THE #3 PICK! Go down to the Prospects section. Pass GO, and collect your $200)

With 3 games to go, the Sixers sit with the 5th worst record in the league. There is still a slim hope of getting even with the 4th spot, but we would need some magic out in New Orleans for that one. If everything holds though, we will have a roughly 64% chance of keeping our draft pick. Let’s break that down:

• 63.9% chance of keeping the pick
• 36.1% chance of at least two teams jumping us, forcing the pick to OKC at #7 or worse
• 10.5% chance of winning the lottery (#1)
• 21% chance of drafting top 2
• 31.6% chance of being consolation winners (#2-4)
• 42.1% chance of getting our (ping pong) balls touched in any way (Top 4)
• 21.8% chance of 1 or fewer teams jumping us but we don’t get our balls touched (#5-6)

All clear? Basically, one team can get extra lucky in the lottery, but two can’t…unless the sixers jump too. The odds of that happening are about 1 in 3. We are all going to know it early on though. If one team isn’t called that’s supposed to be called, we are on red alert. If it happens a second time in the first 7 names, that means the Sixers have to jump. Since final standings aren’t set yet, I have to wait to publish A Neurotic Sixers Guide to the NBA Draft Lottery.

Part 1 – Sixers Sliding Doors: No Draft Pick

Today, we are looking at the satisfying 42.9% chance that we keep the pick but don’t get #1 or #2 overall. As with all of these scenarios, everything hinges on Joel Embiid’s health. I am not optimistic, but anything is possible, right?

Prospects

This draft has been all about Cooper Flagg for months. After him, Dylan Harper is basically set in stone. We are going to make the safe assumption that Flagg goes #1 and Harper goes #2 and we can discuss their fits in the next installment of this series. Who else is there? Below are some quick summaries of players who could come to us in the 3-6 range plus Harper for comparison sake. Apologies to Tre Johnson, Jeremiah Fears, Kasparas Jakucionis, and Kon Knueppel. They may go in the top 6, but I can’t imagine it would be to the Sixers.

Dylan Harper – The Rutgers shooting/point guard has been the presumptive #2 in this draft all year and did nothing to sink his stock. He had a great season individually in New Brunswick, but the team didn’t qualify for the tournament. He is a ball dominant guard who can score but is an iffy shooter. His body is a strong 6’6″ 215 pounds with a 6’10” wingspan that reminds you of Anthony Edwards. You aren’t going to ever have to worry about him getting bullied.

Ace Bailey – Harper’s teammate at Rutgers could really light up the scoreboard on some nights, but was not nearly as consistent as you would hope. He is a willing 3 point shooter, but not an elite one. His 69% (nice) FT percentage is not “nice” and is worrying for his attention to detail and future shooting ability. Defense is not one if his strong points despite being 6’10”. His problem is that he does the hard stuff well and the easy stuff poorly. He needs to be on a team that will hold him accountable. I’m talking myself into him.

VJ Edgecombe – In a long line of elite Baylor athletes, Edgecombe carries the torch proudly. He is a little shorter, a lot lighter, and has shorter arms than Harper, but he’s strong and relentless. As with most people with that combination, he needs to shoot better, but he isn’t exactly bad either. He’s a better free throw shooter than Harper and Bailey. Think of him as the jack of all trades, master of none athlete in the top 5. He will try his ass off though.

Derik Queen – Out of Maryland, Queen is big, can rebound, hits his free throws, and can score. Threes are not his game, but they aren’t out of the question considering he hit 3 of them against the Gators in the tournament. Despite his size, he is not a good defender.

Khaman Maluach – Duke’s big man ended his season in a rough way, zero rebounds. Granted he found out right before the game that his student visa was being revoked because he is from South Sudan, and that could not be easy to deal with. Still, he is a beast of a man. At 7’2″ and 250 pounds, he isn’t the total package defender you would want, but he is incredibly smart, athletic, and strong making you assume he will get there as both a defensive stalwart and rim running big with great touch.

Embiid’s Coming Back!

If Embiid is back and healthy, the Sixers should know it before the draft. He is having surgery soon and will be reevaluated in 6 weeks. We have roughly 3 months until the draft. If he is moving well and playing ball, he is likely on his way. For the sake of viewing the roster, that would have a chain reaction of likely bringing back 2 out of 3 of Oubre, Yabusele, and Grimes. Bringing back all 3 AND signing a draft pick would be almost impossible due to tax restrictions.

As constructed, the Sixers have plenty of guards, especially with the possibility of Grimes coming back. That’s Maxey, McCain, Grimes, and probably Jared Butler or Jeff Dowtin as the 10 minutes per game backup PG. Drafting another guard is a poor use of resources in this situation. That being said, Edgecombe could be the exception due to his defense and relentless style. If Grimes does not come back, he would be much more of a possibility. The problem is that the draft is before free agency. If the pick is Edgecombe, then you would have to assume the Sixers are aware of other factors that would keep them from resigning Grimes.

What we really need is a power forward. Could this be the offensive minded and nimble Queen? He would be my bet. Someone like him would allow Embiid to focus on defense and take much less of an offensive scoring load. This would likely imply that Yabu is the odd man out with Grimes and Oubre coming back.

Derik Queen isn’t going at #3 though. All of those shooting and point guards I didn’t profile will have some say in that. This opens the possibility for the Sixers to trade down. Would a team like San Antonio trade 8 and 14 to move up to 3 or 4 to take Ace Bailey? How about Brooklyn moving #6 and Cam Johnson for #3 and a sign and trade Quentin Grimes? This is silly, but how about #3, Paul George, and Andre Drummond to Portland for #9, Deni Avdija, and Jerami Grant? I’ll stop with the trade machine.

The Sixers could also explore trading #3 or #4 for an individual player but making that math work would be tough. It’s hard to do much maneuvering with Paul George on the roster.

(Solemnly) Embiid’s Not Walking Through That Door

Of course, if after those 3 months he is not moving around, I think you have to assume he’s done and will not factor into the Sixers for at least this season (and likely more). Not only does that mean Paul George and Tyrese Maxey are expendable, but the Sixers need a center of the future. Would Khaman Maluach be on the table? This would be the true canary in the coal mine of Embiid’s injury status. He would be a possibility at 6. How about earlier?

If we are picking at 3 with no Embiid on the horizon, how can the pick not be Ace Bailey? The team would be VERY light on defense, but it would certainly be a good time down at Wells Fargo in another rebuilding year. He has the upside to be a serious scorer in the NBA with his size and raw confidence. Of course, this would probably mean the team has a beat on trading Paul George. Honestly, anything that helps breakdown his $50m salary into tradeable parts would be a welcome trade, addition by subtraction. I can’t believe I am suggesting this, but how about sending him to Miami for Terry Rozier and Andrew Wiggins?

What I don’t think anyone wants to see is a trade of Maxey. You would have to consider it eventually though in a worst Embiid case scenerio. Embiid has the worst contract in basketball and it is completely unmovable if he isn’t playing. That means 4 more years of…this. You can’t win a championship with one arm tied behind your back and that contract is just that. It is a crippling void on the cap sheet. Maxey would have to go. For him mostly, but it would allow us to fully rebuild. Maybe it’s not this off season, but probably by next year. I don’t think that’s something he or the team wants, and it wouldn’t happen until they were 100% sure Embiid is done. If we moved him now though, he would fetch top dollar. You could probably get #2 in this draft, and possibly #1 depending on who owned the pick.

With no Embiid we are looking at a lineup of Maxey, McCain, Grimes, Justin Edwards, and…? Yeah, we would need anyone we could get. But at least we would have someone to look forward to again.