Philly Front Office

Ever since the 2021 Draft trade with the Cowboys, you can’t put any options past Howie Roseman. Howie adheres to a Backstreet Boys philosophy that it doesn’t matter who you are or where you’re from, he will trade with you (as long as you love him). So, who could he possibly trade with?

What Do We Have?

The Eagles are armed with the following picks in this draft: 32 (1), 64 (2), 96 (3), 134 (4), 161 (5), 164 (5), 165 (5), and 168 (5). Solid, but no real extra ammo. It’s in 2026 that things get loaded. We have all of our own picks except a 6th rounder. We also have an extra 3rd round pick from the Jets (Haasan Reddick trade) and an extra 5th round pick from the Texans (CJGJ). Then there is the likelihood that we receive three compensatory picks, one each in the 3rd, 4th, and 5th rounds.

Trade Up

First, let’s take a look at what it will take to trade up generally. If the Eagles want to move up two or three spots, it will probably take a 4th round pick and maybe a little extra. This was the price we paid to get Andre Dillard in 2019 (4th+6th). A few more spots will cost a 3rd rounder, let’s say going from 32 to 25ish. Anything more than that will take draft reserves that I do not believe the Eagles would sacrifice. Let’s say we wanted to get to 10. Back in 2017, the Chiefs were sitting at 27 but wanted Patrick Mahomes. They traded that pick along with a future 1st and a 3rd to Buffalo for #10. It would probably take something like that for Philly to move up that far. I would assume 10-14 would take a future 1st, 15-19 might take a 2nd and more, 20-24 would take a 2nd. Since the Eagles have the last pick in every round, their value is a little less than everyone else’s. One other note, generally to value next year’s picks they are worth about a half round less than this year’s. For example, a high 3rd round pick this year could cost a 2nd round pick next year. The Eagles picked Kelee Ringo with a high 4th round pick in 2023 which cost them a 2024 3rd rounder.

Who could be looking to move?

• Minnesota (24): The Vikings only have 4 draft picks, an expensive roster, and nothing between 24 and 97. They could be interested in 32 and 64 in exchange for 24 and maybe a later pick.
• Pittsburgh (21): The Steelers do not have a 2nd round pick and need a QB. If Shadeur Sanders isn’t there at 21, they could look to move back to 32 to pick up Jalen Milroe or Jaxson Dart.
• Los Angeles Rams (26): Matt Stafford reportedly resigned with the team, but terms of the deal have not been disclosed. He is 36. Like Pittsburgh, since they do not have a 2nd they could look to move to 32 to pick Dart or Milroe.
• Houston (25): The Texans need all the offensive line help they can get. If who they want is not available at 25, they will be best served by getting more picks.
• Cincinatti (17): This is the highest the Eagles could conceivably go but it is a stretch. To get to 17, the Eagles would have to put up 32, 64, and probably next year’s 3rd. That’s iffy whether that would get it done. If it takes more than that, we would likely be out. Since we have 2 extra 3rds next year, that would be the trove Howie would want to spend from.
• Buffalo (30): The Bills have a ton of draft picks, but if an offensive tackle is sitting at 30, you have to think the Bills and Eagles would love to screw over the Chiefs at 31. That would be phenomenal, like the Eagles and Cowboys screwing the Giants in 2021.

Trade Down

The Eagles are in a sneaky good spot to move down. As the last pick in the 1st round, they offer the last opportunity to select someone with 5 years of control. First round picks come with a team’s ability to exercise a 5th year option. Even selection #33 doesn’t come with this. This is a big deal for certain positions like QB. The Eagles were able to trade for AJ Brown because as a 2nd round pick, he only had a 4-year contract. However, as pick #32, Baltimore held some leverage over Lamar Jackson. He played out his 5-year contract, then was franchise tagged for a 6th year which led to an extension shortly thereafter. That 5th year only cost Baltimore $23m rather than the $32m the franchise tag would have cost, plus it was a year they could delay his inevitable extension.

The extra fun with using Lamar as an example is that the Eagles were the ones who traded them the pick, exchanging 32 for 52 and a future 2nd, plus a swap of 4th rounders. The best-case scenario is Shadeur Sanders still being available when the Eagles are on the clock. Even if he is already picked, teams could still jockey for Dart or Milroe.

• Cleveland: The Browns are next on the board at 33, assuming they don’t take Sanders at #2 they will have interest in a QB despite the Watson, Flacco, Pickett malignancy they currently employ.
• New York Giants: If the Giants show interest in 32, Howie will be licking his lips like a jackal salivating over a wounded opossum.¹ It’s a cat playing with a mouse. If Sanders is available, we will be like Dave Chappelle trying to sign for medical marijuana in Half Baked. Joe Schoen will end up begging Howie to take a future 1st for the privilege of moving up 2 spots.
• New Orleans: The Saints have a serious QB issue on their hands with an injured Derek Carr taking up way too much of their budget. If they think #9 is too high to pick Sanders, they would be in position to offer a 2018 Lamar Jackson level trade for 32.

Other teams have future QB issues, but they don’t have the 2nd round picks to immediately offer or an imperative need to make a switch. No one really believes the Colts and Jets have their QB answers, but they will wait to bottom out this year before addressing them.

So What’s Going to Happen?

Howie has learned a lot of lessons over the years. He isn’t going to reach too far for a player or give up the farm. He knows an early 2nd rounder is more valuable and less expensive than a late 1st. The immediate satisfaction of drafting this year probably isn’t worth not getting a better pick next year. Trust me, Howie has more control than any of us do and will make the right move. I expect him to move down and out of the 1st round, making the 4 hours we spend next Thursday seem like a waste. As annoying as that will feel at the moment, it will quickly dissipate because we only have about 19 hours to prepare for our high second round pick!

1. Any Psych fans out there? ↩︎