Philly Front Office

One more. That’s all we need. After last night’s defeat to Columbus, all the Flyers need to do is lose one more regulation hockey matchup. Unfortunately, our opponents need to do the same. Game 82. It all comes down to this!

The season wrapped up for a few teams last night including the Boston Bruins and Seattle Kraken. Boston gained a perilous point in an overtime loss while Seattle lost straight up. This puts them both at 76 points. Boston has the lead in the clubhouse for the 4th worst record in the lead (and 4th best lottery odds) because they win the first tie-breaker by having only 26 regulation wins compared to Seattle’s 28.

The Flyers happen to also be sitting at 76 points and have a measly 21 regulation wins. This means that if the season were already over, the Flyers would lay claim to those 4th best odds. Alas, there is still one game to play. Tomorrow night in Buffalo, Philadelphia takes on the Sabres. They happen to have 77 points heading into their own final game.

Here is how this plays out. If the Flyers lose in regulation, they will finish with 76 points and the 4th worst record in the league, defeating Boston and Seattle on the regulation wins tie break. That win for Buffalo would drop them down to as low as 9th because they lose tiebreakers to Pittsburgh and Anaheim (both have 1 to play as well). However, if the Flyers lose in overtime or a shootout, they will finish with the 6th worst record. A regulation win by the Flyers puts them in 7th position, which is the lowest they can go. An overtime or shootout win only drops us to 6th.

What’s at stake? The NHL has two lottery draws for its first two picks; that’s it. If the Flyers finish 4th, the possibility of getting the first or second pick is 9.5%. More consequential though, the downside of finishing 4th means that they can only pick as low as 6th. The 7th spot comes with a 6.5% chance of picking first and a 6.7% chance of finishing 2nd. The downside there is possibly picking 9th if two lower seeds win the lottery.

Why is this important, besides the obvious of picking higher is better? According to the Athletic, there is a clear #1 overall pick in Matthew Schaefer, but then 4 prospects in Tier 2. Landing a top-5 pick represents getting a better class of prospect. Winning and losing tomorrow night could be the difference between getting a legit stud and just a solid player. The Flyers need all the talent they can get.

So tomorrow, for the last time this season, let’s hope for a Flyers loss and everyone can start looking forward to May 5th (or 6th, they still haven’t decided) and the lottery.