Fans know. They always know. They know if their team is going to make a dumb decision, you can see it on their face when they await the pick. They hope their team either “can’t screw it up” or hope against hope that their team will just get lucky. As Eagles fans, we are familiar with this. Remember when Howie Roseman was good at everything except drafting? He was downright BAD at this for a few years. His process seemed to be flawed and it resulted in huge reaches and wasted picks. After getting extremely lucky with Jalen Hurts, he turned it around. What teams out there are still making bad decisions? I’m going to make this real simple. Teams out there are smart or they are dumb. With one exception, there is no in between. That being said, some are very dumb.
NFL Mock Draft 1.0: Pre-Free Agency Edition
- Tennessee Titans – QB Cam Ward
- DUMB – The Titans may have hired a new GM, Mike Borgonzi, but it’s not like they sold the team. The same ownership group who hired the last two disastrous GMs hired this one too. Was it bad hiring or ownership getting in the way? There is nothing indicating that this team knows what it’s doing and therefore no benefits of the doubt will be given.
- On the bright side, it’s not like they can screw this pick up. Ward might not pan out, but they have to pick him.
- Cleveland Browns – EDGE Abdul Carter
- VERY DUMB – Does it even need to be said? The disastrous Deshaun Watson trade left them without a first round draft pick for 3 years. Just because they haven’t made a first round pick in years doesn’t mean you can expect them to be smart about it.
- I still think they should trade this pick too to fix themselves, but they can’t really go wrong taking Carter to at least have a monstrous pass rush. But if they take Hunter, oh baby!
- NY Giants – WR/CB Travis Hunter
- DUMB – Whatever the wrong thing to do is, the Giants will do it. I’m not saying Nabors was a bad pick or anything, but they don’t have a QB despite having 3 on the roster and Daniel Jones accounting for more than all of them combined on the cap sheet. Other than Nabors, their draft history is awful at best.
- I can’t wait for them to take Hunter. He is an incredible talent, but I am highly doubtful of his ability to hold up going both ways for an entire season let alone an entire career. I bet he looks like the best player in the league due to a few highlights early on, but that isn’t sustainable. Do you want him covering a WR1 in the 4th quarter right after getting hit by a LB and playing the whole game? At what point do you give him rest and then basically play a man down on defense?
- New England Patriots – OT Will Campbell
- SMARTish – The last couple Belichick years were a little rough, but they are back doing what they do again, and Bob Kraft isn’t an idiot. I think they overpaid on free agents this season but the guys they brought in are talented.
- Campbell or Membou here. They are going to pick a lineman and it will be the right move.
- Jacksonville Jaguars – DT Mason Graham
- DUMB – Firing long time dumbass GM Trent Baalke was the right move, but they only made the move because head coach candidates wouldn’t take the job with him still installed. Ownership simply doesn’t know what it’s doing. Expect Khan to remain involved with team decisions. That’s a bad thing.
- If they take Jeanty over Graham, I will be taking victory laps.
- Las Vegas Raiders – RB Ashton Jeanty
- DUMB – They hired a new GM, John Spytek (this cannot be a real name, right?), to work with new coach Pete Carroll. First move of the new regime? Trading for Geno Smith. Yup, good luck Raiders fans. Trading for an “everyone else” level QB isn’t bringing a championship to the desert. Also, in case you forgot, they have one of the worst owners in football leading the brain trust.
- Carroll is old. I’m not saying that means he is fundamentally flawed, but it does mean his timeline is shorter. He needs to win now. Jeanty is the biggest immediate impact in the draft. They would be LUCKY as a franchise if the Jags take him to protect them from themselves.
- NY Jets – WR Tetairoa McMillan
- DUMB – Another team that fired the GM but still has the same bad owner making the hiring decisions. Has Woody Johnson ever made a good decision?
- Part of me wants to put Tyler Warren here, but a new GM isn’t taking a tight end with his first pick. Despite having Garrett Wilson, they are going to double down on receiver despite not having a QB. It’s an easy flashy win for the new decision maker.
- Carolina Panthers – EDGE Shemar Stewart
- DUMB – I don’t know much about Dan Morgan, the GM entering his second draft, but I do know David Tepper is a hot head who doesn’t know how to NOT meddle with his front office. He is a toxic person who doesn’t understand why his same tough guy bully bullshit that works in the hedge fund world doesn’t work with sports.
- I went from loving Stewart to being totally off him. You simply can’t be that athletic and have that little production, 4.5 sacks in 3 years. I can’t imagine I am alone in this. Teams will only see one or the other, the athleticism versus the production and someone will jump.
- New Orleans Saints – QB Shadeur Sanders
- DUMBish – Mickie Loomis has been in control here forever and has no fear of losing his job. But what are they doing? They aren’t collecting young talent and aren’t getting better. This team desperately needs a new voice.
- As I wrote the quick profile of Mickie Loomis I realized that they probably are not going to take Sanders. He would mean a complete reset and that isn’t what this team does…even if that’s what they should do. If Sanders doesn’t go here, it almost has to be to Pittsburgh or to a team that trades up.
- Chicago Bears – TE Colston Loveland
- DUMB – Ryan Poles still has his job for some reason, but that won’t last much longer. This is a guy who bragged about NOT taking Jalen Carter 2 years ago! Do you think he’s going to take the best player available?
- Call this just a hunch that they take TE2 over TE1. Because he went to Michigan, I think he will try to draft someone midwestern and safe.
- SF 49ers – OT Armand Membou
- SMARTish – Yes, I am an SF hater, but the draft history of John Lynch is a VERY strange mixed bag. Other than Joey Bosa, their 1st round picks have been pretty rough over the years, but then they absolutely crush the rest of the draft. Not sure what to make of them.
- Membou would be a safe and solid pick to eventually replace the 37 year old Trent Williams. Considering this is basically a gap year, this makes sense. Knowing Lynch though, he might go with Warren if he is still available. Kittle is older than you think and only has 1 year left on his contract.
- Dallas Cowboys – TE Tyler Warren
- SMARTish – Jerry has no idea what he is doing when it comes to contract negotiation. The Draft however, he WAS good but fell off the last two years drafting Tyler Guyton and Mazi Smith. I can’t really call that a trend yet considering they were late round picks.
- Whether it is Warren or Loveland, I expect Jerry to address the receiver position with a tight end. Dallas has been missing this component for years and these guys are high end talents.
- Miami Dolphins – CB Will Johnson
- DUMB – I was ready to give them a DUMBish grade until I looked at the draft history. I didn’t realize it was that bad. From trading firsts for very little to outright bad drafting, why in the world has Chris Grier held on to this job for 9 years???
- Gee, do you think there is any correlation between trying to move Jalen Ramsey and targeting a CB in this draft? Chris Grier, master of misdirection.
- Indianapolis Colts – OT Kelvin Banks
- ??? – I want to hate the Colts brass, but I can’t go either way on them. They draft the most athletic talent available apparently. Whether it works or not, it is a philosophy that makes sense to me.
- By this logic, Shemar Stewart could be the pick if he is available. However, they need offensive line help and Banks has a solid RAS score. It isn’t Will Campbell, but still in the 8s.
- Atlanta Falcons – EDGE Jalon Walker
- DUMB!!! – I can’t stress enough the buffoonery of the ownership/GM tandem of Arthur Blank and Terry Fontenot. I REALLY want to put WR here because that is just the thing that they would do, but I can’t bring myself to stoop to their level. I won’t do it!
- They can’t pass up a position of need with a local guy available right? RIGHT???
- Arizona Cardinals – DT Kenneth Grant
- SMARTish – I’m just as surprised as you are. Marvin Harrison is going to break out this year, he is just too good even with Murray throwing to him. Paris Johnson is good too. They used to be bad at this, but the new GM really cleaned things up.
- Considering they just signed Josh Sweat, DT is the smart pick in this draft. It is a deep position and a position of need. If it isn’t Grant, it will be another DT.
- Cincinnati Bengals – EDGE Mykel Williams
- DUMB!!! – Picking Joe Burrow does not make this team smart. They barely even have a GM considering Duke Tobin has been there for 25 years and no one even knows who he is. This team does not understand how to build a team.
- With the impending loss of Trey Hendrickson (35 sacks the last 2 years) they MUST pick an EDGE rusher. They just have to!!! Expect them to pick the wrong one though. I really want this pick to be Shemar Stewart.
- Seattle Seahawks – WR Luther Burden III
- SMART – Do I think Darnold is the answer? No. They do draft well though. Charles Cross and Devon Witherspoon are top flight talents.
- They purged their older receivers and still need one more guy. You don’t pay Darnold just to not support him. Maybe they go Egbuka instead to keep the Ohio State thing going, but Burden seems to be the safer pick while Egbuka is more athletic. It’s a toss up.
- Tampa Bay Bucs – LB Jihaad Campbell
- SMARTish – Jason Licht has been there for awhile and seems to make smart moves without making the smartest moves.
- Giving the best LB in the draft to Tampa is almost too on the nose right?
- Denver Broncos – WR Emeka Egbuka
- SMART – Since George Paton got there, they haven’t missed on any picks, even while taking a risk on Bo Nix. They take risks, but have amassed some high end talent with Nix, Patrick Surtain, and Nic Bonitto.
- Ohio State receivers don’t tend to miss. This feels like the right pick for the right situation with Nix only in his 2nd year.
- Pittsburgh Steelers – QB Jalen Milroe
- DUMB – What happened to this team? My whole life they were the smart team that always stayed in contention without much fanfare (like the Cardinals in baseball). This will be Omar Khan’s 4th draft and what does he have to show for it? Two non-special tackles, and the ghost of Kenny Pickett??? They just traded for DK Metcalf without a QB.
- It has to be a QB right? You don’t trade for DK without a QB. I am picking Milroe over Dart because Dart is too much like Kenny Pickett…unless that means they are more likely to pick Dart? This franchise got real weird. They have an old team though. Is a rookie QB really the plan?
- LA Chargers – EDGE James Pierce
- SMART – They have fortified their offensive line to an incredible degree the last few years. With Alt and Slater, it is stacked. They haven’t missed.
- They lost all their pressure though in the off season. Pierce is another solid smart pick.
- Green Bay Packers – DT Derrick Harmon
- DUMBish – They haven’t drafted poorly but not exactly well either. Their hits were in the beginning of the GMs tenure, but nothing recently.
- This team needs to get tougher considering how much they have cried over the Tush Push this offseason. Maybe instead of complaining they should invest in DT in a deep draft?
- Minnesota Vikings – CB Jahdae Barron
- SMART – They have put together a solid team in free agency and the draft, one that JJ McCarthy should be able to step into and succeed. This grade next year hinges on McCarthy though. If he stinks, they are dumb. That’s how the NFL works.
- If they are going to hang with the Lions, they need to stop them. They have talent everywhere including CB, but this position needs to be stacked in today’s NFL.
- Houston Texans – OT Josh Simmons
- SMARTish – Since he came in, Nick Cesaro has done a solid job of getting blue chip talent in the door. Granted he has had high draft picks to do this, but talent is talent. However, he did miss on Kenyon Green with the 15th pick in 2022. Was that because their line coach is terrible? Maybe. I can’t give him the highest grade for only making his layups though.
- It has to be offensive line. Last year was a disaster AND they got rid of everyone. This unit needs to be rebuilt from scratch.
- LA Rams – G Tyler Booker
- SMART – They won a Super Bowl by trading their picks and then rebuilt on the fly by drafting incredibly well. They know what they are doing.
- They also do not care at all about how athletic a prospect is, relying heavily on production. Booker had an historically terrible RAS score in the 4s but he is obviously very skilled. Add in how bad they did containing Jalen Carter in the playoffs and Booker might almost be as perfect a choice as Campbell with the Bucs.
- Baltimore Ravens – DT Walter Nolan
- SMART – Their draft philosophy is to take the best player available almost no matter what. That’s how they routinely run out talented and competitive rosters and can afford to let players walk. They have known what they are doing for a long time.
- If the Eagles are looking at a player, you can bet the Ravens are too. That’s how this goes. If we want Nolan, we will have to get ahead of Baltimore.
- Detroit Lions – WR Matthew Golden
- SMART – Look, I thought they were dumb a few years ago when they took a LB, RB, and TE all in the first round. Since taking Penei Sewell with his first pick, Brad Holmes hasn’t missed, building one of the most talented teams in the league.
- The smart pick would probably be to continue building out the lines, but adding an electric WR to this offensive might give it another dimension that they can’t pass up. They need to be able to solve for the Eagles, and this could help them stretch out the defense.
- Washington Football Team – EDGE Mike Green
- DUMBish – I am absolutely a Washington hater, but Adam Peters picked Emmanuel Forbes over Christian Gonzalez which is basically Arcega-Whiteside over DK Metcalf 2.0. They are also a very old team outside of Jayden Daniels. They don’t get credit for Daniels considering they had no choice, much like the Bengals and Joe Burrow.
- Green is a prospect not on many draft boards due to allegations of domestic violence. Washington knows they have a defense problem considering what happened in the NFC Championship game last year. I expect them to take this gamble.
- Buffalo Bills – S Malaki Starks
- SMARTish – They have drafted well over the years despite regularly picking at the end of the first round, but no obvious homeruns since Josh Allen. Still, they have managed to keep together a solid roster.
- Even if the Eagles demolished the Chiefs in the Super Bowl, the Bills still can’t get past the boss. They have yet to be able to stop Mahomes and need to get another playmaker in their secondary. They signed Joey Bosa, so I wouldn’t expect this to be an EDGE rusher.
- Kansas City Chiefs – OT Josh Conerly –
- SMART – They keep adding high end talent no matter where they draft. Even if I want to ding them for their hubris in drafted Clyde Edwards-Helaire a few years ago, they keep hitting all over the draft.
- If Conerly is available, they should run the card up. Anyone who is in the market for an OT should make a call to the Bills to get ahead of KC, including the Eagles.
Super Bowl Champion Philadelphia Eagles– QB Jaxson Dart- SMART – Do I need to even say it? Howie Roseman has built the youngest most talented team in the league by drafting his ass off the last few years. The Howie Renaissance should be a lesson to all other GMs that you can change your ways. Howie wasn’t some draft savant, he had to make a lot of mistakes to get here.
- I love the idea of Cleveland, New York, or New Orleans trading up to #32 for a QB. It makes too much sense for Howie not to leverage those guys for a haul even to move down only a couple spots. Expect the Giants to get fleeced the hardest.
http://www.Pro-football-Reference.com may be the most useful website on the internet. Their draft histories were my #1 and only source for this mock draft.
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