Philly Front Office

Maybe it’s because I watched Draft Day twice in the last three days, but I want tonight’s draft to get messy. It seems so chalk right now in viewing the mocks, but there are a few potential wild cards out there. Sometimes, all it takes is one domino to fall for things to go haywire. Here are the prospects, teams, and scenarios that could cause the most damage.

Shadeur Sanders

No one looms over the draft like Sanders, which is funny because no one is acting like they actually want him. The Giants, Browns, Steelers, and Saints all need a QB, but no one wants to take him too early. If they can get him later, its a steal…but make no mistake, they all want him. So, what happens?

• What if the Giants take him at 3? All of a sudden the Patriots #4 pick becomes a possible trade target. The next few teams could all be calling up the Foxboro war room offering deals for Carter or Hunter, whoever doesn’t get selected by Cleveland at #2. This is the best news possible for Jalen Milroe and Jaxson Dart. The top QBs are now scarce and could cause a rush on the #8 pick. With New Orleans selecting #9, the Browns or Steelers could panic and move up ahead of the Saints to get their guy.
• If he doesn’t go #3, the Saints would be the next pivot point. Do they pull the trigger on Sanders causing the panic above in the teens? The Saints don’t pick again until #40. If they feel they might be the last ones on the sidelines without a QB date, they could go early on Sanders.
• If the Saints pass the first time, it becomes a game of chicken in the mid teens. Will anyone move ahead of the Steelers at #21 for Sanders or do they wait for the Steelers to make their decision and get one of the other two?
• If the Steelers pass, he is officially in free fall. Now the Browns at #33, the Giants at #34, and the Saints at #40 could give up much smaller packages to move into the end of the first round for any of the 3 remaining QBs or just wait to see if any keep falling. Teams like the Vikings, Bills, Chiefs, and Eagles would all be looking to sell their slots.

Runs

• If any of the early Sanders scenarios happen, there could be a run on QBs. Since there is a possibility only Cam Ward goes in the first round, that’s 3 spots that end up getting filled by other positions. However, if 4 QBs go in the first, that means 3 first round talents slip to #32 or the second round.
• Right now, this draft is low on offensive lineman and heavy with defenders. Will Campbell is expected to go #4 to the Pats and Armand Membou shortly thereafter. If someone trades up for Membou, it could trigger a run on offensive linemen. Players like Kelvin Banks and Josh Simmons go higher than expected and pull fringe first rounders up with them, guys like Josh Conerly, Tyler Booker, and Donovan Jackson. This has the opposite effect on defenders as they get pushed down. Now the Georgia pass rushers and DTs like Walter Nolan and Derrick Harmon are in mid 20s range instead of the teens.
• Tight Ends are another position of scarcity that could cause a panic. It’s the consensus that Tyler Warren and Colston Loveland are the top two at the position. If they go too early, it could cause Mason Taylor and Elijah Arroyo to slip into the 20s when they are probably 2nd round talents. That would be bad for the Eagles pursuit of a Tight End, but great for the Nolan and Harmon crowd.
• When a run happens, it doesn’t just cause trade ups. Some teams find themselves on the outside looking in at a position that is no longer there. All of a sudden, the guy they thought would definitely fall to them is gone and they want to move out. Now there is an opportunity for teams like the Bills, Chiefs, and Eagles to move up on the cheap.

Trades for Picks

• #17 – The Bengals have their own pick in each of the first 6 rounds, but they need defensive talent desperately. They really should look to trade down and keep trading down for as many second rounders they can get and go DEFENSE DEFENSE DEFENSE.
• #21 – The Steelers do not have a 2nd rounder because of the DK Metcalf trade, so they go #21 followed by #83. If they don’t want Sanders, look for them to recoup some capital
• #24 – The Vikings only have 4 picks total and nothing between #24 and #97. They are also loaded with talent. A trade with SF, Jacksonville, or Cleveland who are loaded with 10+ picks should be on their radar
• Speaking of which, a lot has been made of the Eagles having 20 picks in 2 years, but SF has 11 picks this year. Look for them to possibly trade down and trade up in the first round to consolidate those picks into higher values

Trade for Vets

Extension season has begun with the Eagles keeping Cam Jurgens and the Bills extending everyone. Some guys haven’t signed extensions yet though. There’s no better time for trades than the draft. Teams feel the pressure to make deals and get that instant gratification of either filling a need or selecting a player. I don’t think Micah Parsons will be on the move, but the haul Dallas could get for him might be league breaking.

Three years ago, the Eagles traded for AJ Brown. No, he is not getting traded during this draft. But he did go for a mid-first round pick. Who else could go in this range?

• Trey Hendrickson – The Bengals are picking 17th and need help everywhere. Hendrickson has 35 sacks in 2 years and wants a new deal. The 49ers (11), Cowboys (12), and Commanders (29) could all be in the market for his services.
• George Kittle and Trent Williams – Both are older, need contracts, and might not fit in the SF timeline. I am not picking on SF because I don’t like them, I think it might be a good idea to use this season to fully reload. Both Williams and Kittle have succession problems. Could they trade both of them for enough ammo to get another mid first round pick? If you are a SF, how do you feel about getting Colston Loveland and Membou or Simmons? You feel pretty good about that.

Eagles

Chaos is good for the Eagles. We have the resources to move up and the motivation to trade down…but that was the same last year too. The Birds ended up staying put and letting the draft fall to them when there was a run on offensive linemen. Because no CBs had been picked, they were able to land the #1 corner in the draft, Quinyon Mitchell, without moving at all. All the chaos could let exactly who we want come to us. OR…Howie could take advantage of a panic.