Philly Front Office

[Updated with possible fits]

The NBA knows drama better than TNT ever could. It’s already stocking up on possible off season story lines involving the trades of the league’s biggest stars. After the Luka trade, literally ANYTHING IS POSSIBLE!!! So, who could be on the move?

A few very relevant accelerants were added to the fire recently, most notably in Milwaukee and Los Angeles. First, Damian Lillard’s injury is the spark that could ignite the off-season. He has 2 years and approximately $113m left on his contract at 35 years old.¹ A torn Achillies tendon is just about the worst injury possible. He is likely going to miss all of next season and may never be the same. The Bucks have two options: trade Lillard for ANYONE productive…or move Giannis and start over. That’s a flame thrower.

Both the Bucks and Lakers lost their respective first round series. That’s a rude introduction into the post Dame world for Milwaukee and a cause for panic in LA. Both teams have to make moves.

Trade Likely

Kevin Durant – It’s going down. Phoenix is too awful, too expensive, and too F’d for Durant not to be on his way out. He will start next season at 37 years old but doesn’t seem too worse for wear somehow. Teams will trade for him, but Phoenix can’t expect the type of haul that they gave up for him: 5 1sts, Cameron Johnson, AND Mikel Bridges. I don’t think the Knicks would swap Bridges 1 for 1 for Durant if they could. Maybe. He has one year left on his contract for almost $55m.

Best Fit: The Sixers would be great if Joel Embiid were healthy, but he ain’t. If Houston bows out tonight, they definitely seem like the kind of team to make this move.

Damian Lillard – His recent injury is simply devastating for him, his career, and the Milwaukee Bucks. There is no world where you can be a contender and play a max contract down like they will have to next season (just ask the Sixers). This means they have to move him or risk Giannis asking out. Unfortunately for them, they don’t have anything to trade². So how do you move $54m in cap with no assets? Well, for a longer or worse bad cap. That’s it. Bradley Beal? That’s rough. Jerami Grant and Deandre Ayton for a Blazers reunion? Grant has 3 years and Ayton 1 year left on their contracts. This is a tough spot. They can’t stay where they are though. Staying put wastes a year of Giannis.

Best Fit: You would think Dame would need to be part of a 3-team deal, but that doesn’t work since the Bucks have nothing of value to send out. They need to find a team with a horrible salary that they want to offload that’s somehow worse than an unplayable Dame. Beal’s contract is just as long as Dame’s, but would allow the Suns to really tear things down while possibly getting a somewhat healthy Dame next season. Oh God, it’s Embiid isn’t it? His 4 years of crappy contract but possibility of playing might be worth trading Dame’s 2 years of likely nothing…Jesus wouldn’t that be something. Sixers wouldn’t do it though.

Austin Reaves – Whether you think he’s a star or not is immaterial, he’s getting moved this summer. He is their best trade chip to try to get over the hump as LeBron James keeps fighting father time. Unless LeBron decided to take a minimum salary to really stack the team, they need to trade Reeves for the big man they just don’t have.

Best Fit: Anyone who could offer a big man. They would love to get Bam Adebayo from the Heat, but he isn’t moving. I don’t think they have enough to get Lauri Markkanen, but maybe. What about Kristaps Porzingis? The Celtics and Lakers aren’t exactly kind bed fellows, but it could be a solution to both team’s problems.

Miami Heat – The Heat got pretty screwed this year. Much like Bret Hart though, the Heat screwed the Heat. By getting in the Jimmy Butler business then acting shocked by his very predictable actions, they brought this on themselves. They should have tried harder to trade him before the season or simply paid him. Oh well. The Heat don’t stay down for long. They are going to look to upgrade their roster with star power. Not going to lie, the best thing for all parties is for Zion to go to Miami and get himself together. Look for them to try to get any and all of the guys below. They have the Warriors pick to trade this year, and then I think 2030 and 2032.

Best Fit: Zion. They can offer some future firsts and have the salary to match up without giving up Bam or Herro.

More Possible Than You Think

Zion Williamson – The Zion in New Orleans experiment is over. What’s the point now? He can’t stay in shape or healthy in that organization and they are going nowhere. The roster has talent, but it’s built around someone who cannot be trusted to be there. He is such a singular prospect though, a 1 of 1 when he is on the floor, that there has to be a better future for him. Zion to the Heat really makes sense.

Best Fit: As much as Miami would be great for him, I can see the Hornets or Nets making a better offer.

Ja Morant – He has become such a headache for the Grizzlies and they don’t know what to do anymore. They also just got absolutely obliterated by the Thunder in the playoffs. They have young talent on the roster but things have gotten so volatile that they probably need to make a change. Would teams be willing to give up enough for the Grizzlies to move though? Someone may find him tantalizing enough to ignore all of his gun toting nonsense.

Best Fit: Is there a challenge trade on this list? How about Jalen Green and Reed Sheppard for Morant? Who says no there?

Trae Young – Could this finally be the season that the Hawks give up on Trae Young? This has seemed like the smart thing to do for a few years now, but Atlanta has to finally see that they are spinning their wheels, right? The team is poorly constructed, just missed the playoffs, and has very little going for it. Young has a year left before he can opt out. Are they going to try to extend him for like $300m or trade him? That seems like an easy choice to me. They desperately need to start over with the couple young guys they have.

Best Fit: I am the wrong person to propose a trade fit for Trae Young because I think he stinks. He’s a poor man’s James Harden who is half as likeable and plays even less defense. He’s Lamelo Ball but uglier and angry. Then there’s the likelihood that the Hawks overvalue him. The Heat? The Wizards? The Hawks need to pray they win the lottery and move on from Trae.

Jalen Green or Alperen Sengun – Seems crazy right? Maybe not. Houston is always the team trying to jump start things, trying to angle the franchise trajectory a little higher to speed things up. That’s why they overpaid Fred Van Vleet. FVV has a team option this year. Might they try to add one of the guys on this list to replace him? Since Green and Sengun don’t really play great together, maybe the Rockets move one of them for a more established star. If they lose in the first round this year, you have to think Tilman Fertitta will demand action.

Best Fit: The Rockets don’t want more draft picks, but they do have a high one this year thanks to Phoenix. If that one stays at #9, they could package that and Green to go fishing in a big pond for anyone on this list. I keep going back to Miami, but Green and #9 makes a lot of sense for Bam and the Heat. What happens if that pick jumps to #1 or #2 though? If that happens, Giannis is headed to Houston. Milwaukee would have to make that trade.

New York Knicks – The jury is still out on the Knicks. They are up 3-2 in a highly competitive series but even a win puts the Celtics right in their face. That’s the barometer. They were built with Boston in mind after all. Win or do well and the experiment lives another year. If Boston kicks their ass though, they have to make a move. Bridges is the only one not under contract for the long haul, but they just gave up the farm to get him. Is the answer KAT? He has the massive contract, but would Knicks fans swap him for Durant? How about Bam Adebayo? The real answer should be Thibs. Is he actually a good coach? He consistently overplays his best guys, burns them out, and craps out in the second round of the playoffs. Sounds like a perfect Sixers coach to me.

Best Fit: KAT for Anthony Davis?

They Might Ask Out

Giannis Antetokounmpo – Without Dame (and probably even with him), he has to see the Bucks are hopeless. Despite being 31 next year and firmly in the second half of his career, he is still PHENOMENAL. Each year he spends in Milwaukee now is a lost one. The big question is if he is chasing championships. Since he already has one title, he could be fine with living out his days in Milwaukee. If not, it is time to go. The Bucks are stuck in the incredibly bad position of being nothing without him and having nothing for him.

Best Fit: His best fit is the Lakers, but they can’t get him without the Bucks hiring Niko Harrison. Houston might be the best fit and the most likely. The Nets have a ton of picks, but no infrastructure to support him. If OKC doesn’t make the finals again, do they finally unload the draft pick clip? Let’s say Chet and like 6 firsts?

Paul George – The first year in Philly didn’t exactly go well (throws up). The Sixers aren’t ready to pivot yet though. If Joel Embiid seems done next year, I have no doubt PG will get moved at the deadline. Anything before that would be his decision. Does he see the Joel Embiid writing on the wall? No idea where he could go, but I doubt the Sixers want to go through another prolonged holding pattern with a star level player.

Best Fit: A garbage pile? It’s hard to find a landing spot for him. The garbage pile thing started as a joke, but let’s roll with it. The Bulls? Would they salary dump Vucevic and Patrick Williams for 3 years of George? Maybe they throw us one of their firsts? Not going to lie, that’s the kind of thing they would do. It gives the Sixers movable/expiring contracts too. What about the Kings? They are a stupid franchise. God, I don’t want anyone on that roster. Portland? George and Drummond for Ayton and Grant?

Boston Celtics – I don’t know which one they could look to trade, but even if they win back-to-back championships it will be very difficult to keep this team together. Their tax bill this season will be about $50m. That’s a lot, but next year…woof. With only 12 guys under contract and no Al Horford, Boston is projected to be about $40m over the tax threshold, $20m over the second apron, AND a repeater. Spotrac estimates the tax bill at around $240m right now.³ Thats just the tax, not the payroll. They have new ownership, but they might look to break it up rather than run it back.

Best Fit: Sending Porzingis to the Lakers makes a lot of sense especially if you had a third team to get them a different center. Let’s get weird though. How about sending Jaylen Brown to Houston for Sengun and Sheppard? This leaves the Rockets pretty small but would re-unite Udoka with Brown and drop Boston’s tax bill by $90m to $100m. That’s a lot of money.

Don’t Listen to Anyone

Nikola Jokic – This came up in the rumor mill for some reason. It shouldn’t be given oxygen. He is a walking contender, but he isn’t asking out and they aren’t moving him. They will likely use the fired coach situation to explain away any poor playoff showing this season. Next season we can speculate about dismantling this squad, but Jokic still isn’t leaving.

Best Fit: If Jokic absolutely forced them to make the trade, it would be star for star and then some. Would the Lakers give up Luka Doncic and their remaining draft picks? Yes. Would Boston give up Tatum and picks? Yes. Would the Thunder give up Shai? Maybe.

Joel Embiid – No Embiid trade makes sense unless the Sixers decide they want to get rid of him at all costs. If he is playing, he is too valuable to give up. If he isn’t playing, then he is too expensive to move. There is no in between. If you are the Sixers, do you pull the plug and trade Embiid for Lillard and rebuild? Would the Bucks take that chance? How about the Lakers? God damn this is depressing.

Best Fit: Is it wrong to say the Sixers? They truly need him more than anyone. The only other possibility is a desperate Bucks or desperate Lakers.

1. He has 1 year and a player option for another. His agent probably already sent in the paperwork to pick up that option. ↩︎
2. And I mean nothing. All of their future picks are either already gone or swapped out and untradeable. They do have a mid-second rounder this season. ↩︎
3. If Horford comes back at around $10m, the tax skyrockets. Not changing anything on the roster, I estimate the tax to be around $360m. At $50m over and a repeater, they could be taxed as high as 9.75x for the highest overages. ↩︎