Philly Front Office

[UPDATE: The Royals and Red Sox have lost 6 straight this week and are falling out of contention. Ryan Refsnyder and Aroldis Chapman should be targets from Boston. KC has several relievers that could be of interest including John Schreiber. I don’t think Carlos Estevez will be coming back though]

As of the time I am writing this, the Phillies are in first place. We’ll see if that changes by the time I actually publish it (it didn’t, look at me finishing things on a weekend) or when you read it. Gloating isn’t the (only) reason for this post though. This is an exercise to gauge what teams already are and may become sellers at the trade deadline. Speaking of which, the deadline is on July 31 at 6pm EST which is…

…away.

Unfortunately, as of this writing there are WAY too many teams within shouting distance of the playoffs. The expanded 6 (12) team playoff format has teams that should be planning for next year already, holding out hope for a Phillies-esque run to the World Series. It keeps the amount of sellers way down.

While only the East division races seem to be actually competitive, most of the league is in Wild Card contention. As of June 21, we only have 6 teams officially out of it: Colorado Rockies, Chicago White Sox, Pittsburgh Pirates, Miami Marlins, Washington Nationals, and Not-Oakland A’s. That stinks! After them, there are a few teams hanging on either by preseason expectations or that fait possibility that Cinderella dreams might cram into a glass slipper.¹ Who else might join the ranks?

Baltimore Orioles

The young Orioles hitters are not breaking out and the pitching has been non existent. They are 33-43, 6.5 games out of the wild card and 11 out of the division. Unfortunately, they have 7 teams to get in front of to make the playoffs. They have barely shown a pulse all year.

Thinking About Phillies Trades (Bats)

While they won’t deal any of their young talent no matter how much it has underachieved, they do have veterans they would be happy to ship out. Zach Eflin is making $18m in the last year of his deal and Tomoyuki Sugano is pitching well at $13m. Both guys would instantly vault to the top of a thin pitching market. Baltimore would even be in the position to pay down their salaries for better prospects. Ther bullpen hasn’t been great, but names in their last contract years could be on the move including old friend Seranthony Dominguez and Greg Soto. We probably don’t want either of them back, but we would definitely have interest in Felix Bautista. He has 2 more years of control though.

On the hitting side, they have some valuable pieces in Cedric Mullins, Ramon Laureano, and especially Ryan O’Hearn. All 3 are having their best seasons in years and none will likely be back with the team next year. Mullins has been barely treading water, but the dearth of true centerfielders out there makes up for his shortcomings. O’Hearn has been slumping lately, so the Orioles better cash in as soon as they can.

Atlanta Braves

Much like the Orioles, this season was not supposed to go this way for the Braves. They are currently 6 games out of the wildcard and 11 back in the division at 34-40. Unlike Baltimore, they only have 5 teams to jump in order to make the playoffs. Atlanta is simultaneously seeing peak Ronald Acuna come back from injury while also learning that ace Chris Sale is going to be out for awhile with a fractured ribcage. That sound especially devastating for a pitcher. A previous stress fracture in his ribs had kept Sale out for 3 months in the 2022 season. Just when the Braves looked good sweeping the Mets, this happens and they promptly lost to the Marlins. They simply can’t seem to get on track this season.

The Braves Might Get Even Worse

The Braves are going to try to compete, but they do have a very frugal and corporate-based front office. They could see this for the sellers’ market that it is and finally restock a farm system that has been pilfered for upgrades for years. Players like Raisel Iglesias and Marcell Ozuna are in the last year of their contracts and could fetch a pretty big haul at the deadline. Another contract that could be on the move is Sean Murphy. They would be in no hurry to move him, but he is on a fair contract for several more years and the Braves have Drake Baldwin ready to be an everyday guy. I’m pretty sure the Braves wouldn’t mind moving his now extraneous salary.

Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim of California

The Angels were first out of the gates to make additions this winter and while it helped them in the short term, they are still a lost franchise. I don’t think anyone really sees them as a contender even though they are only 3 games out of the wild card. Having 6 teams to jump doesn’t help either. Plus, the Angels have a guys they can move. Tyler Anderson, Kyle Hendricks, Kenley Jansen, and Yoan Moncada are all on 1 year contracts and are serviceable upgrades for other teams. Taylor Ward and Jo Adell are not in their final years, but they have been on the trade block for years.

Minnesota Twins

The Twins went from bad to good to slowly slipping back into bad again. They were 13-20 then won 14 in a row right after I started salivating over their bullpen. After getting to 34-27 they started fading and now sit at 37-39. Who knows what happens to them from here. If they keep losing, the league will be watching. Jhoan Duran would be the biggest trade chip of the deadline if he were made available. While Griffin Jax and Danny Coulombe would fetch some nice returns themselves. Then there’s Byron Buxton and Royce Lewis. Both should be foundational pieces in Minny, but neither can be depended on to stay healthy. Do they want to finally move on from either despite being very cost controlled? Probably not, but they have to at least listen.

Phillies Bullpen Situation

The Rest

Barring any complete collapses in the next month, I do not see the rest of the middle of the pack becoming sellers. Teams like the Rangers, Diamondbacks, Royals, Guardians all expected to compete this season and aren’t far enough away to completely move away from that position. They are all too talented to fall too much further out of contention too. Everyone’s favorite pre-season trade partner, the Cardinals, are only a game out of the Wild Card. If anything, they could all be buyers. They have serious assets to be mined too, so this is a shame. The Reds are a team desperate to win and are pretty young, so don’t expect them to jump the gun selling either. They are cheap though, so it is possible.

In the end, we have 6 sellers, 2 should-be-sellers, and 2 more get-serious-and-be-sellers. That means 2/3 of the league is likely to still be in contention within the next month. While that should make for a fun September, it may suck for July. As always, the Phillies need a reliever.

1. It just dawned on me how incredibly dangerous glass footwear would be. This was a terrible idea by a so-called fairy god mother. And she wanted her to dance in them??? What was she thinking? ↩︎