When Kevin Durant was traded to the Rockets yesterday, I cracked my knuckles and went to my archives to pull up the article where I predicted this and got ready to gloat. I couldn’t find it. Sure I said Houston was the best fit, but it quickly dawned on me that I never laid out my predictions for the offseason. When you’re wrong, there is no need to remember these things, but when you’re right, BY GOD IT MUST BE SHOUTED FROM THE ROOFTOPS!!!
Predicting trades is a little hard, but someone like KD was very obviously getting moved. Free agency is a little easier. Still, let’s give it a try.
Kevin Durant
Cheating! Houston was the easy choice though. Not only did they have a need and Phoenix’s future draft picks, but Miami wasn’t a legit destination since they are not a contender and are low on assets while San Antonio didn’t seem like the team for an all in move for a 37 year old.
Quentin Grimes
This one is obviously of interest for Sixers fans. Grimes is a restricted free agent, meaning the Sixers can match any deal Grimes agrees to with another club. The Sixers will probably match anything up to around $20m for him unless they can come to an agreement in the $10-$20m AAV range in the meantime. There are only 2 teams that could realistically offer him that much money or more: Brooklyn and Detroit (Grimes picked a bad year to be a RFA). While we can all see them signing him to a poison pill contract for spite, the Nets are still not actually trying to be good. Grimes is a complementary piece and that just isn’t what they need. The Nets will be looking to lease their cap space to other teams in exchange for draft assets. Prediction: Grimes resigns with the Sixers for 4/$70m
Damian Lillard/Giannis Antetokounmpo
Everyone is saying and doing the loyal things in Milwaukee right now, but they are in an absolutely awful situation. They do not have assets, 1/3 of their payroll is hurt, and they aren’t that good anyway. What is Giannis holding on to there? It could be simple loyalty. If that’s naive, either Giannis or Dame MUST be out the door. They have a 2031 first round pick to trade, but that’s it. Do they want to move that to get off Dame? Would anyone take just a 1st for paying Dame 2/$90m? I don’t think they would. Plus, Milwaukee would be getting nothing back in return. It’s not happening. They have to trade Giannis. Nothing else makes sense. Prediction: Giannis to the Spurs for #2, 2027 1st via ATL, 2030 1st w/ Dal-Min swap rights, Devin Vassell, and Harrison Barnes. Getting a guy like Dylan Harper is the best the Bucks are going to do for Giannis while sending him to an actual contender.
Trae Young
The Hawks need to end this farce of a team. They finally have some young likeable guys and Trae Young does not help them win. It’s not fair of me to propose such a trade because I don’t like him, but they can’t extend him right? If they aren’t planning on extending him then he has to go now. The Miami Heat have been striking out everywhere. They are being stingy with their picks and assets. Wouldn’t he be perfect there though? Yes, I know him and Herro would play no defense, but if anyone could work around that, its them. Plus, this lets them move Herro down the line anyway. Prediction: Trae Young to the Miami Heat for Terry Rozier, Duncan Robinson, #20, and a 2029 1st.
Zion Williamson
There is no “star” with a lower value than Zion right now. A team trading for him would have to deal with a sex assault charge as well as injury issues. I think with new leadership, the Pelicans probably just want to move on. I hate to do them twice, but Zion makes too much sense in Miami. It’s good for him and it’s good for the team. Prediction: The above becomes a 3-team trade with Tyler Herro going to New Orleans.
Celtics
They need to shed salary, and prepare for a season where Jayson Tatum might, but probably won’t, be available for the playoffs. Would they trade a first round pick and Kristaps for Nic Claxton? It would save them something like $40m in tax and might make them better. How about Jrue Holiday to Detroit for Tobias Harris and a 2027 1st round pick? That would save around $50m. These seem silly but that’s a lot of money. The Nets don’t want Kristaps though. The Lakers need him, assuming he’s healthy. If they could squeeze out a few more assets for their trouble and remain bad, fantastic. Prediction: Kristaps Porzingis to the Lakers; Gabe Vincent, Dalton Knecht, Gabe Vincent, and a 2031 pick swap from LA along with a 2025 2nd (#32) and a 2026 1st from Boston to the Nets; Nic Claxton to Boston.
Miscellaneous
I will update this as I go, but this was already getting Trade Machine heavy and far-fetched. The NBA is just wide open. Anything can happen. There are other players who need to be moved like CJ McCollum, Karl-Anthony Towns, and probably Jalen Green again. We’ll see how things shake out.
I don’t know what trade machine people use, but I am a FanSpo guy. It’s the easiest in my opinion: NBA Trade Machine & Cap Manager | Fanspo
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