To start, let me be clear, I know this is silly. The Steelers are not going to trade TJ Watt. Granted anything is possible in the NFL, but Pittsburgh just spent solid money on Aaron Rodgers for one season and traded for DK Metcalf and Jalen Ramsey. I think all of these moves were stupid, but internally the Steelers are all in. Being “all in” does not mean trading your best defensive player. It is not going to happen. That being said…
Local and national media are abuzz with the thought of TJ Watt changing teams generally, but specifically to the Eagles. The Eagles are the face of the NFL and seemingly have a hole at EDGE (they don’t but not replacing Josh Sweat is an easy storyline generator), so linking them and their gunslinger GM, Howie Roseman, to Watt is incredibly easy. Why is this happening though? Because Watt is in the final year of his contract with the Steelers and would like to change that. He wants a new deal and is not reporting to camp until he gets one or is traded.
Contract
Watt signed a 4/$112m extension in 2021. That contract will pay him $21m this season but comes with a $30m cap hit. This sounds familiar right? Well, he is not the first star defender to want a new deal this offseason. We went through this a couple months ago with Myles Garrett. He wanted a new deal and was immediately linked to the Eagles as well. His old deal still had 2 years left on it when he signed a 4/$160m extension with Cleveland. It is damn near a guarantee that Watt wants that same bag. Pittsburgh doesn’t seem to want to give it to him though.
To trade for Watt is to trade for his contract situation too, so any team that acquires him needs to be able to pay him. If you don’t think Watt deserves Garrett money, you would be incorrect. Pittsburgh probably points to their age difference first. The two came into the league the same year, but Watt is a year older. No matter, Garrett’s extension would cover his age 32-35 seasons, same as Watt. Then there is the matter of their stats. They are very similar:
| TJ Watt | Myles Garrett | |
| Games | 121 | 117 |
| Sacks | 108 | 102.5 |
| Forced Fumbles | 33 | 20 |
| Tackles For Loss | 126 | 116 |
| QB Hits | 225 | 200 |
| 1st Team All Pro | 4 | 4 |
| DPOY Top-5 | 2019, 2020, 2021, 2023, 2024 | 2022, 2023, 2024 |
After seeing this comparison, are you going to tell his agent he doesn’t deserve the Myles Garrett contract? He very clearly does. If you trade for Watt, you are looking at probably a 4/$162m extension ($2m more than Garrett, $1m more than Ja’Marr Chase). Maybe you could sell him on a 3/$135m deal to really push the market. Garrett received basically 3 seasons guaranteed though. I don’t think Watt would take any less. Either way, it will be a heavy commitment.
The Trade – Nolan Smith
Since Pittsburgh is in Win-Now Mode, you would have to think that draft picks might not be the trade assets they are looking for. The media has speculated that Nolan Smith would be the main course that gets a deal done with possibly some draft compensation as a nice side dish. Is that something we would consider?
Smith is still on his rookie contract and can’t even be offered an extension until after this season. Going into this year he looked like a first round bust, then everything changed. Smith ended the regular season with only 6.5 sacks and a forced fumble but then picked up 4 more sacks in the playoffs along with 4 TFLs. He is primed for a star turning breakout this season. He is only 24 years old.
No offense to Nolan Smith, but he will likely never be TJ Watt. Look at those stats, not even Myles Garrett is TJ Watt! That comparison misses that TJ Watt will likely never be TJ Watt again either. He will play this season at 31 and is already likely in decline. A declining Watt will still probably be better than Smith this year, but what about next year? The year after? Would you rather have Smith at 26 or Watt at 33?
The 2027 season is a good one to look at because it is the year Nolan Smith’s extension will likely kick in. Let’s say he signs for around Brian Burns money, 5/$141m. Would you rather be paying 33-year-old TJ Watt $40m-$45m (with an agonizing cap hit) or paying Smith the first year of a possible bargain deal at age 27? Combine that with the higher numbers for Jalen Hurts, Jalen Carter, and the rest of the roster and it is just not good cap management. Give me prime Smith over aging Watt.
Overview
Would I want TJ Watt on the Eagles? OF COURSE!!! Could you imagine him next to Jalen Carter and Nolan Smith? Teams would be absolutely screwed trying to throw, being forced to huck something in the air only to get it picked off by Cooper or Quinyon. Yes, please! But things don’t just work like that. If the trade were something like 2 first round picks and Watt was willing to take some kind of discount to come here, that would change everything. The money would be incredibly tight, but it could still work. I’m not giving up Nolan Smith though.
Philly Front Office 
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