Philly Front Office

The Phillies bullpen could be the difference between being contenders for a World Series and being sitting ducks come playoff time. The Phillies know they need to improve, just made a move, hinted at more, and have…

…until the trade deadline. Let’s take stock.

Who Can Pitch in the Playoffs?

• Orion Kerkering – He walks too many guys and is not striking out as many as you would hope, but he is currently our best reliever. That’s not good. As a 7th inning guy, great. In the 9th? No way.
• Matt Strahm – Strahm has had a tale of two seasons so far. His fastball left him in May and he gave up some bad homeruns trying to find it. Now it’s back and he has been playing closer thanks to his ability to get hitters out on both sides of the dish. Ideally, he is pitching the 8th inning or against a tough pocket earlier.
• Tanner Banks – Situational lefties are not completely a thing of the past, but ideally Banks is either taking up time in a big win or in to face a tough lefty with runners on and 2 outs. Come playoff time, if you are facing Juan Soto, Shohei Ohtani, or Kyle Tucker in the 6th or 7th with the starter on the ropes, that’s when you bring in Banks.
• Jordan Romano, if we have to – Don’t get me wrong, I don’t want him anywhere near a close game, but if he is the 8th man in the pen for the playoffs, you could do worse. When he is off though, he really implodes. 7 out of the 11 times he has given up runs are multi-run innings. But, he has only given up runs in 2 of his last 13 appearances (and one of those was the unfortunate disaster in his second inning of work in SF). I don’t trust him, but still, we are pretty thin.
• Maybe Max Lazar, and I was encouraged by the game against Boston in extras, but he is still very green.

What Do We Know About the Phillies?

David Robertson

This week the Phillies signed reliever David Robertson to a pro-rated $16m contract. Crazy right? Obviously, no one was going to pay David Robertson $16m, but $6m for work from August through October is a premium the Phillies were willing to pay. Apparently, they weren’t the only ones. According to Matt Gelb, the Mets, Dodgers, Tigers, and all the other contenders were impressed and willing to bid on the 40 year old, but the Phillies struck fast and biggest, landing their guy.

Not everyone is exactly pleased with the move. Those of us who remember his first two stints in red pinstripes, know that the thought of David Robertson is often better than the execution. His first time through, the Phillies gave him 2/$23m back in 2019. He pitched 6.2 innings before getting hurt and missing the rest of the contract. Two years later, after putting up solid numbers for a going nowhere Cubs team, the Phillies again took a chance, sending minor league starter Ben Brown to Chicago. He faired better this time, but absolutely none of us trusted him down the stretch, probably because he injured himself celebrating beating the Cardinals in the playoffs and was left off the roster against the Braves. Were these both cases of terrible luck? Probably. Anyway, he’s back. Hopefully he stays healthy enough to be a decent late inning option at or near the level of Strahm.

The Kids

Dave Dombrowski knows that this bullpen still needs help. Aside from more trade options, Trader Dave gave a little hint that he isn’t exactly optimistic. In a recent media session, for the first time names like Mick Abel and Andrew Painter were bandied around as possible relief candidates. Thank the Good Lord! All season he has been adamant that they would stay in the rotation despite that not making any sense. If they are good enough to pitch and there is no room in the rotation, what was the plan? Just have them wither and die in the minors waiting to be used in case of injury? That’s asinine. It always made sense to limit their innings down the stretch by transitioning them to the bullpen for the playoffs. Apparently, that is now on the table.

• Andrew Painter – Painter has had a rough go in AAA so far with an ERA hovering around 5. As a starter he can touch 100 early on, but the velocity comes down over the outing. As a reliever, he should be able to maintain that velocity and possibly show more life. We have NO idea how he will perform in the majors, but his stuff is that of an elite closer. We are getting way ahead of ourselves though. At the very least, putting him in the bullpen to start September will keep his innings between 100-120, right where they want him.
• Mick Abel – Something happened when Abel made his first start against the Pirates. His fastball, which was usually in the mid-90s was hitting 98. I’m sure it was adrenaline, but I don’t think anyone knew he had that kind of juice in him. There is a strong chance Abel moves at the trade deadline considering the surplus of starting pitching within the system, but if he stays, that fastball will play nicely late in games. Hopefully it will keep him from giving up the HRs that plagues him before being sent down.

The Extra Starters

Come playoff time, a rotation only needs 4 arms. They are pretty clearly Zack Wheeler, Cristopher Sanchez, and Ranger Suarez. Due to his performance against tough lineups, Jesus Luzardo should probably be #4. That leaves…

• Aaron Nola – Nola has been hurt most of the year but wasn’t exactly effective before that. He apparently threw a bullpen the other day and is probably about 3 weeks away if they want him to start. Why stretch him out though? He has done nothing in the near past to warrant a spot in the playoff rotation other than signing an ill-advised monster extension. Use him in the bullpen! I know Nola fears change, but why hurt the team by giving him more innings than someone like Luzardo or, god forbid, Ranger Suarez?
• Taijuan Walker – Walker has not been bad this season, we just aren’t ready to trust him after last season. Ideally for John Middleton and probably Walker too, he gets traded at the deadline. There has to be some team out there in such dire need of a starter that they don’t mind paying some part of his $18m salary next year and $6.8m outstanding this season. If it came down to it, would the Phillies trust him in the bullpen or Jordan Romano?

Trades

I am adamant that the team needs a closer. When Jose Alvarado was suspended, it took away an element of the bullpen that has not been replaced: a reliable, lockdown, late-inning weapon. They don’t grow on trees, but they are out there if we want to pay the price. Looking at the list above, this really is the final piece.

• Emmanuel Clase – He is on a very good contract complete with team option years coming up and doesn’t give up HRs (or much of anything for that matter. Since an early season blip, he has been back to his regular miniscule ERA self. He did have a particularly bad playoff last year though. The only worry is that pitching in Philly in the playoffs is a little different than Cleveland. Since they don’t have to trade him, they probably want one of our Top-3 prospects and more for him at the very least.
• Jhoan Duran or Griffin Jax – They are together because only one of them will probably be on the move. Both throw 100+ and are absolutely nasty. Same as Clase, both Duran and Jax are not just rentals and the asking price is apparently two Top-100 prospects. The Phillies have those, but using them on a reliever is a risky proposition. If the price is something like two of Eduardo Tait (#59), Mick Abel (#83), and Aroon Escobar (#93) we would probably want a throw in of Harrison Bader (kill me) or lefty reliever Danny Coulombe.
• Felix Bautista – Just like the others, he still has team control remaining. Baltimore’s biggest problem over the last two years has been their lack of starting pitching. Would a group of Mick Abel and Alex McFarlane be enough to swing a deal for Bautista?
• David Bednar – The Pirates closer has 1 year left on his contract and the Pirates are acting like they don’t need to move him. Well, I say they do. The Pirates are not in a position to risk losing a free agent for nothing. Let’s say they are decent next season, and, with their pitching, they should be. They do not want to be in a position to NOT move Bednar because they team might make the playoffs. If they moved him anyway in the midst of a wild card chase, the fans would riot. It would probably take one of those 50-100 guys and someone else to swing a deal.

The Bullpen We Need

• Closer (my money is on Griffin Jax)
• Andrew Painter
• Matt Strahm
• Orion Kerkering
• Aaron Nola
• David Robertson
• Tanner Banks
• Jordan Romano or Max Lazar

That will play.

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