It is too bad the Eagles don’t start for another week, because after a bad couple days in New York, Phillies fans need a distraction. What better way to do that then by looking at next year’s Phillies and MLB free agency! Wait, you’re saying that isn’t a distraction at all? You’re probably right.
What Do We Need?
I went into my roster predictions for next year last week and came up with a budget of around $70m-$90m to spend but with real vacancies at DH and Catcher thanks to the pending availability of Kyle Schwarber and JT Realmuto. I am estimating Schwarber should be around $27.5m per year and then $14m per year for JT, but there’s no guarantee they are coming back. There is also the possibility that we are looking for a new 3rd baseman and right fielder since Alec Bohm and Nick Castellanos both have 1 year of control left and are completely infuriating to watch.
Best Available
The Phillies will probably not be in the market for starters and not the highest end relievers either, so I will leave them off the list. This is going by The Athletic’s top 25 available free agents:
- Kyle Tucker OF – The best available talent on the market had visions of a $550m+ contract, but while he is a solid offensive player, that would be a pretty big overpay. He does everything well, but nothing great. Is a team going to pay $40m+ per season for a .275 AVG, 25 HRs, and solid approach at the plate? That’s all less than Vlad Guerrero only with better positional value. Guerrero signed a pre-free agency extension of 14/$500m at 26 years old. The lowest Tucker will probably accept is 10/$400m but it could go as high as 12 years or $45m AAV depending on whether the Mets and/or Dodgers want to get involved. As much as I would love Tucker in a Phillies uniform, I don’t think they want a 3rd monster contract on the team with Turner and Harper (at least not a bigger monster, we’ll get to that).
- Alex Bregman 3B – Bregman signed a very strange 3/$120m deal with the Red Sox with opt outs after every year. Assuming he exercises that option, he is going to want to top that mark or at least get close with more years after having a good season in Boston. There are problems though since he will be 32, has been hurt, and this year is his best statistically since he was 25. He probably wants 5/$200m. That would detonate the Phillies budget, but I can see it happening.
- Pete Alonso 1B – The human embodiment of Mr. Met did not get the deal he wanted from Uncle Steve last winter and will enter the market again after a stellar season. The goon will be 32 and is a good bet for 35 HRs and an .850 OPS year over year. Do we want him replacing Kyle Schwarber and rotating at first with Bryce Harper? For 5/$150m? He’s destined to stay in NY forever, right? I just can’t see him landing in Philly.
- Bo Bichette SS/3B – Bichette is my sleeper pick for the Phillies. He will be 28, hits from the right, and other than 2024 has always been good for a .300 AVG and .800 OPS. The problem is that he is likely going to cost around 10/$300m. Truth be told, that’s not nearly as big as when Trea Turner signed nearly the same deal 3 years ago. The good news on this market is that the Mets would likely be out and the Dodgers probably wouldn’t be all in. That leaves the Yankees, though I think they are more likely to pursue Bregman. A reunion with Toronto doesn’t seem likely considering what they are committed to Toronto, although a good playoff run could change everything.
- Cody Bellinger OF – Nobody trusts him. One bad season, like what Bichette had, people can forgive. But 3? Now he’s in NY and no one can trust their statistics either, especially with his mind boggling reverse splits (he is hitting .363 against lefties this year). If the Phillies can unload at least half of Castellano’s contract, a 4/$120m deal for Bellinger is in play, but he should probably stick in NY.
- Eugenio Suarez 3B – Suarez is 34 and has been knocking the cover off the ball for 6 years now. Unfortunately he strikes out a LOT and isn’t good at anything but knocking the cover off the ball when he makes contact. Still, power is at a premium in this league and he could probably get around $20m per season for 2-3 years. As much as the Phillies want to avoid adding Ks to their lineup, next year’s team could have a serious power outage if Schwarber leaves.
- Munetaka Murakami, 1B/3B/OF – The Japanese hitter can play all over the diamond, just not well and profiles really as a DH. He is here for his hitting and will likely be posted by his team in Tokyo. A .300 hitter with power will have suitors, but luckily the Dodgers probably will not be one of them due to his likely defensive role. The Phillies on the other hand have been trying to break into the Japanese market for years. If there is anyone they will overpay for just to start a pipeline it is Murakami. He is 25 years old, 6’2″, 225 pounds and hits lefty.
- Luis Arraez ??? – I don’t think most people know what to make of Arraez. He has 3 straight batting titles (and is one hot September from a 4th), but it comes with very little power. He never strikes out, but he never walks either. He is only 28, but isn’t athletic enough to field a position. What do you do with that? San Diego usually bats him leadoff, but he is probably better as a 2 or 5 hole hitter since he can only move guys over. Someone will overpay for the .300 hitting guarantee to the tune of 4/$72m, but I wouldn’t want him on the Phillies for anything more than 4/$40m.
- Trent Grisham CF – The 29 year old Grisham is having his best season at the plate and his worst in the field. There is something about those pinstripes, huh? The crazy part is that he is hitting better on the road than at Yankee Stadium! It doesn’t make much sense. Still, he is a strong side platoon bat that can play center. Team him up with Luis Robert Jr and you have yourselves a stew! 3/$18m sounds right.
- Marcell Ozuna DH – No.
Phillies
As you can see, there are no catchers on this list. If they want to pivot away from JT, then Adley Rutschman is their best bet on the trade market. That’s for another day. Theoretically, due to the cost savings by having Justin Crawford and Andrew Painter up next season, we could see the Phillies splurge on Bichette and Murakami while letting Schwarber walk and trading Bohm. How would you feel about this lineup:
- Trea Turner (R)
- Bryce Harper (L)
- Bo Bichette (R)
- Munetaka Murakami (L)
- JT Realmuto (R)
- Brandon Marsh (L)
- Nick Castellanos (R)
- Stott (L)/Sosa (R)
- Justin Crawford (L)
Man, we really need more outfielders.
All stats from Baseball Reference and all projections are my own.
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