It is the nature of sports media in 2025 that credit is quickly given for one’s lack of accomplishment while doing just the opposite for the real winners. Despite the Eagles taking home the trophy, it is the Washington Commanders who are the darlings of the NFC as everyone has dismissed last year’s incredible good fortune as sustainable talent rather than luck. Let’s investigate.
How Good was 2024?
The 2024 Commanders went 12-5 and reached the NFC Championship Game. Objectively, that’s not easy and something for a downtrodden franchise and its fans to be proud of. They have a rising star QB in Jayden Daniels who made none of the stereotypical rookie mistakes while showing poise and decision making beyond his years. They even had big wins over the future champs at the end of the season and won a barn burner over the #1 seed Lions in the playoffs. Of course this is a good team! Right?
That 12-5 record was made possible by an 8-4 record in 1-score games. That’s a good thing to be able to do but it’s not something that’s considered inherently repeatable year over year. Looking deeper, some of those wins should have never been so close. Home losses to Dallas and Pittsburgh? A 1-point win in New Orleans? Two close wins over the Giants (one was with 7 field goals)? Let’s not forget the miracle against Chicago. That 12-5 isn’t looking so dominant.
Of course, I have to address the part the Eagles played in this. The first meeting was on a Thursday in Week 11, a 26-18 Eagles win. Washington hung close most of the game, but got torched down the stretch with a turnover on downs, an interception, and absolutely no way to stop Saquon Barkley. The second meeting was looking like a blowout early until an unflagged cheap shot on Jalen Hurts ended his day early with a concussion and CJGJ was ejected for talking junk (like he does). Neither should have happened and both ultimately led to a last second Washington victory. A win is a win, but this was not some herculean defeat of the Final Boss at the peak of its powers. Just to prove it, the Eagles torched them in the NFC Championship, 55-23.1
Yes, they beat the Bucs and the Lions in the playoffs, but both were thanks to extreme turnover luck. Baker Mayfield fumbled on his own 12 late in the game and the Lions gave it up 5 times! In the playoffs, style points don’t mean anything obviously, but luck is also not a plan to build on.
Age and the Offseason
Speaking of building, when a first- or second-year QB goes on a run in the playoffs, the future is just so bright. What can’t they do in the seasons to come with such a young team! – record scratch – young team? Lost in the Jayden Daniels hoopla is that he has none of the young weapons or support that we usually take for granted with a young ascending QB. He is surrounded by the oldest roster in the league. Not only do they have 2nd place Pittsburgh by almost a year,2 but this is the oldest team in the last 13 years (by a lot) according to Jimmy Kempski.
With a young, cheap QB in the fold, teams usually do one of two things: they either acquire draft picks for a young team to grow together, or they splurge in free agency using their QB money savings on in-their-prime vets. Washington did neither. They certainly didn’t get younger and accumulate draft picks by trading for Laremy Tunsil and Deebo Samuel, but they also didn’t splurge on prime talent bringing in Jevon Kinlaw, Jonathan Jones, and Von Miller on short deals. Honestly, I don’t know what they are doing.
Tunsil is 31 and anchored one of the worst offensive lines in football last year. Houston was so bad at protecting the QB that they scrapped the whole unit and started over, deciding that Tunsil wasn’t worth it to protect their own young QB talent. To make this move, Washington gave up a 3rd this past NFL Draft and a 2nd and 4th next year. Does that make any sense? As for Deebo, he had an unbelievable 2021. Now he’s almost 30 and there isn’t really anything else to say about him. The addition of Von Miller is solid, but this isn’t prime Miller we are talking about. He is now a 36-year-old situational pass rusher.
On the defensive side of the ball, Jeremy Chinn and Dante Fowler left in free agency and were basically not replaced. The team released one of their best defenders in Jonathan Allen and brought in Jevon Kinlaw to replace him. Kinlaw isn’t good. On offense, leading rusher Brian Robinson was just released and has been replaced internally with 30-year-old Austin Ekeler. It wasn’t a great draft either with 1st round pick Josh Conerly not expected to start. I just don’t know what to say about these decisions.
Where is the Talent?
Most teams do not have the QB situation figured out. That’s not a problem in Washington. Even better, thanks to an extension finally getting worked out, they have a WR1 as well in Terry McLaurin.3 Then there is… who is their 3rd best player? They are probably hoping it’s Tunsil (thanks Danny), but again he’s 31 and wasn’t good enough for the worst line in the league. Zack Ertz? He was dependable for them, but will be 35 in November. What about Marshon Lattimore, the frequently injured 29 year old who cost them a 2nd round pick last year and got crushed by AJ Brown? The answer is Bobby Wagner. Despite just turning 35, he is still elite (11 straight years All-Pro). I don’t think there is a 4th best.
Having old players isn’t itself a bad thing. Wagner especially is still amazing. I asked the question though to highlight the dearth of young talent on this team. Other than Daniels, their drafting has been abysmal for the last…I’m struggling to find a great draft here. There are a few hits here and there, but their draft history has been a barren wasteland clinging to a few weeds of vegetation. There is no one other than the QB on this team under 25 who projects as a future Pro Bowler. For context, the Eagles have Jalen Carter, Quinyon Mitchell, Cooper DeJean, and Nolan Smith.4
Because of the bad drafting, there’s no depth here either. Obviously, the QB going down would be devastating, but there’s such a huge drop off in talent from the starters to the bench that anyone going down leaves this team in a lurch. Considering they are all in their 30s too, that’s not exactly something that’s unforeseeable.
Prediction
If you couldn’t tell, I see the 2025 Washington Commanders as a highwire act. They will need everything to go right for another trip to the playoffs: no injuries, no vets falling off a cliff, and no sophomore slump for Daniels. Lucky for them, they will be aided by a soft opening schedule that includes the Giants, Raiders, Falcons, Chargers, Bears, and Cowboys. I wouldn’t be surprised if they have a better early record than the Eagles. Things get harder starting in Week 8 though with the Chiefs, Seahawks, Lions, Broncos, Vikings, and two dates with the champs. In the end, I can’t see this aging team surviving the whole year with the same good fortune as 2024. They will be teetering around .500 and on the cusp of the playoffs. They better hope the Eagles having nothing to play for in Week 18.
All statistics courtesy of Pro Football Reference
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- The game was so lopsided that Washington started abusing the rules to the point that the refs had to warn them that they would award Philadelphia points if they didn’t stop their on-field tantrum. To stop the Tush Push, Jonathan Allen and Frankie Luvu either lined up offsides or jumped over the line before the snap 4 times. Because the Eagles were so close to the goal line, the only penalty was to move the ball a few inches closer each time as the count remained 2nd and Goal. The same people claiming the Tush Push is a bad look seemed to have no problem with Washington refusing to let the game actually be played to stop it. ↩︎
- AND PITTSBURGH EMPLOYS 41-YEAR-OLD AARON RODGERS ↩︎
- It should be noted that neither Daniels nor McLaurin are as young as you think. Despite being a rookie last year, Daniels will be 25 in December. As for McLaurin, he wasn’t negotiating his first extension, this was his second. He will be 30 in 2 weeks. ↩︎
- And who knows about Moro Ojomo, Jalyx Hunt, and Jihaad Campbell? ↩︎
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