Philly Front Office

Well, it wasn’t exactly the hottest start for your boy in Week 1. Going 2-3 on my first five picks of the season puts me in a bit of hole but it’s one that I will overcome through grit and rock hard determination. We now have our first impressions of teams and actually have something to work from as opposed to just completely relying on preseason projections. The NIL era of college football has drastically changed the landscape of how teams operate. With so many transfers and turnover, you have to see the product on the field to be able to get a feel for where these teams are headed. It’s time to break out the hardhats and lunch pales and go to work in grinding out these picks.

What did we learn in Week 1? I have to start with Arch Manning and Texas. That was about as underwhelming of a performance as you could have imagined for Manning. He looked completely uncomfortable throughout the game and his throwing mechanics were pretty alarming. At times last year for Texas, I was questioning why Quinn Ewers continued to be the starter. This is a guy who ended up getting drafted in the 7th round so it was also very apparent that the NFL didn’t think highly of him either. The fact that Sarkisian stuck with Ewers tells us a lot about what he truly thinks about Manning. I missed this point heading into Week 1 and should have known better.

We also learned that Alabama appears to be mediocre again. The dominance of the Saban era is long gone. There are lots of reasons why football teams succeed or fail, but there can be no argument that coaching significantly matters. Tying this into my beloved Eagles, I’ve heard people make the absurd argument that they don’t think Nick Sirriani is a good coach. You don’t have the type of success that Sirriani has had if you are bad at what you do. All you have to do is watch the culture the Eagles have developed since Sirriani took over (players love him and this team is as physical as it gets) and then watch Bama players last weekend getting bullied in the trenches to see how much coaching matters. This never happened under Saban.

LSU, Miami, and Florida State all had statement wins in Week 1. I am way higher on these teams now than I was going into the season. It feels like two of these three teams will be in the playoffs.

Finally, we need to address Bill Belichick. Admittedly, I took the bait on the hype with the stars in the crowd in Chapel Hill on Monday night and placed a large wager on UNC +3.5. I was heading into an Oasis concert at MetLife and was on top of the world and I got undisciplined. Had I known his 24 year-old girlfriend was going to be on the SIDELINES and berating him during the game, I would have obviously stayed as far away as possible. What a disaster. Anyways, the concert was unbelievable and easily a top 5 show I’ve ever seen. LONG LIVE OASIS.

Now it’s time for the picks. And it’s time to start profiting.

Game of the Week: Michigan at Oklahoma (-5.5, O/U 46.5) Saturday 9/6, 7:30 pm EST

The only matchup this week between two ranked teams. Michigan was one of my picks for last week. They didn’t cover and it almost seemed at times like they were playing with their food.

Oklahoma had a solid debut beating up on an overmatched Illinois State team. Their QB (John Mateer, a transfer from Washington State) can play and they are well coached. But I don’t think you can draw any strong conclusions on them until you see them against real competition.

This is a bet for me on the Big Ten and on true freshman QB Bryce Underwoood. Michigan can pound the rock and should have the advantage in the trenches to do this, especially in the second half in a low scoring road game. Underwood brings top of the food chain skills that I think show up on the big stage Saturday night. It’s obviously risky to take a true freshman in his first road test but I really feel this line is 2-3 points too high.

Give me Michigan +5.5.

Baylor vs SMU (-3, O/U 65.5), Saturday 9/6, 12:00 pm EST

Both of these offenses are high flying and are going to be to score at will on one another. This is the classic Big 12 game where defense will be optional. Baylor’s Sawyer Robertson threw for 419 yards and 3 scores against an SEC defense last week and Baylor lost because they couldn’t stop anything.

I love the over here and will be betting it up to 68.

UConn at Syracuse (-6.5, O/U 58.5), Saturday 9/6, 12:00 pm EST

This is another over play. UConn is pretty solid this year and should be able to score against a base Syracuse defense. Syracuse being at home also leads me to believe they will put points up.

Pound the over up to 60.

Kent State at Texas Tech (-48.5, O/U 58.5), Saturday 9/6, 12:00 pm EST

I know what you are thinking. JoeyBets can’t possibly hit three overs at noon Saturday, can he? Watch and learn, my friends.

Texas Tech put up 67 points in a game where they played two 8-minute quarters in the second half after a long weather delay.

They are going to hit this over by themselves.

Georgia Southern at USC (-28.5, O/U 61.5), Saturday 9/6, 7:30 pm EST

My favorite bet on the board this week. I love USC in this spot.

USC has beefed up both of their lines. They have landed a couple of nice players in the transfer portal and return Jayden Maiava at QB. I think they are in for a good year and will blow out Georgia Southern at home just like they blew out Missouri State last week (73-13).

Look to buy the half point to keep the line at -28, sit back, and profit.


Last Week: 2-3
2025 Season: 2-3