…but first, the bad news! No bait and switch, just acknowledging that Trea Turner strained his hamstring Sunday running to first base. It’s a Grade 1 strain which means making it back before the playoffs is the goal, but not a guarantee. It could have been worse. That stinks. Turner had quietly been building a Top-5 MVP case in what has been his best full season with the Phillies. ALSO, Alec Bohm apparently hurt his should and he will be missing hopefully only 10 days. Oh yeah, and just for funsies, Brandon Marsh is sick. I promise there’s good news…
Monday, Sept. 8 at 6:45p – Aaron Nola vs Nolan McLean (R)
4 Game Series at Citizen’s Bank Park, Philadelphia, PA
Tuesday, Sept. 9 at 6:45p – Ranger Suarez vs Sean Manea (L)
Wednesday, Sept. 10 at 6:45p – Cristopher Sanchez vs Clay Holmes (R)
Thursday, Sept. 11 at 7:15p – Jesus Luzardo vs David Peterson (L)
The Playoffs
According to Fangraphs, the Phillies have a 100% chance of making the playoffs. That’s pretty good! It isn’t really 100%, but with the Giants losing last night and another Reds win over the Mets, the magic number to officially clinch the playoffs is down to 9. The Reds face the Padres and the Giants face the Diamondbacks over the next 3 days.
As for the main course, the Phillies currently have a 7 game lead on the Mets in the NL East. Despite leaving Flushing two weeks ago with our heads hung and our lead whittled down to 4 games, we are back like nothing happened. Over their last ten, the Phillies have gone 7-3 while the Mets went 4-6. Thanks guys. The magic number for the division is down to 13. With the Mets coming to town for 4 games. remember, each Phillies win counts as 2 for the magic number. One thing to know is that regardless of what happens in the upcoming 4 game series at Citizen’s Bank Park, the Mets own the head-to-head tie breaker already
More good fortune has found our way out of Los Angeles over the last 2 weeks. The Dodgers have lost 7 out of their last 9 (to bad teams) dropping their overall record to 79-64, 4 games behind the Phillies for the 2 seed. The magic number for this first round bye is 16, but the teams have a 3 game series starting next week in LA. The Phillies won 2 out of 3 in Philly earlier in the season, so another series win would clinch the tiebreaker.
Replacements In the Infield
By no means am I saying it was good for Turner to go down, but the Phillies have a more than capable backup at their disposal in Edmundo Sosa. Sosa plays better defense than Turner, absolutely wrecks left-handed pitching (.323/.370/.515), and has killed the Mets so far this year with a 1.727 OPS. That’s 3 doubles and a HR in 11 at bats. Granted it is a small sample size, but the Mets are throwing 2 lefties at us in Manea and Peterson, so Sosa probably would have played anyway. Now we get his energy in the lineup every day. For what it’s worth, Turner has been dreadful against the Mets this year. In 41 plate appearances, he has a .526 OPS.
Alec Bohm apparently has a cyst in his shoulder that needs to be drained. Honestly, getting him out of the lineup is for the best. Over the last 2 weeks, he has been hitting .191 with a .475 OPS. This, my friends, is a good thing. Why? Because being able to blame poor performance on injury is much better than him just being bad on his own. He has had a pretty bad year in general, so anything we can point to that could signal an improvement is desirable. 10 days off? That’ll fix him!
In his place, Otto Kemp is back along with a guy named Donovan Walton. Kemp has been mostly bad this season in his extended look over the summer, but he hasn’t been terrible against lefties. A slash of .239/.327/.413 tells me that he can put together good at bats, something Bohm hasn’t been able to do at all. At least there won’t be any defensive downgrade. Walton is a 30-year-old lefty who hasn’t done much of anything in 5 years with Seattle and SF but can play a little defense. That being said, he has at least been hot at AAA before the call-up. In 50 games he is hitting .339/.413/.424 with about equal K:BB ratio. Expect him to split 3rd base duties with Kemp. We simply do not have any more left-handed infielders.
Losing Turner stinks, but getting Bohm out of the lineup is an upgrade at the moment. He has a miserable attitude and a terrible approach at the plate which all boiled over 2 weeks ago in NYC with that whole batter’s eye nonsense. I’m not saying he won’t have a part to play in the playoffs, but some time away for him and us can’t hurt. In his place we have guys with energy who will at least appreciate the opportunity they have.
The Outfield
Brandon Marsh has been one of the best hitters on the team lately. Unfortunately, him being sick means that he will miss at least the first two games of the series with a lefty up in Game 2. Well, this is why we have an outfield rotation, right? Nick Castellanos has been on the outside looking in lately but will go back to right field for likely the next 2 games. If anyone will miraculously begin hitting out of spite, it’s Nick. Plus, we now have a rejuvenated Max Kepler and a red hot Harrison Bader manning the other two spots.
There is also a chance we see the defensively challenged Weston Wilson man left field on Tuesday against Manea. What a lineup that could be that day. Wilson, Kemp, Sosa, Castellanos…we are going to need to get lucky.
The last time we played the Mets, Bader still had not settled in at the plate. Since then, he’s batting .364/.404/.659. He’s a legitimate part of this lineup now.
Home Field
For all the doom and gloom surrounding the series at Citi Field, the recent one sidedness of this rivalry ends there. Earlier in the season and after the first Citi Field sweep, the Phillies bounced back just fine. Game 1 was a 10-2 blow out lead by Nick Castellanos of all people. Game 2 was a Mick Abel/Joe Ross/Michael Mercado mess and none of them are on the team anymore. Game 3 was a Jesus Luzardo gem that happened to come AFTER his mess of a May. The Phillies lit up David Peterson that day with a lineup featuring Kemp, Sosa, Buddy Kennedy, and Johan Rojas. Oh yeah, we didn’t have Bryce Harper the whole series.
The Series
Earlier in the day I wrote about how all the playoff teams fair against lefties in consideration of the Phillies going with Cristopher Sanchez, Ranger Suarez, and Jesus Luzardo for a series. The Dodgers are a problem, but for the most part, the Mets are not. The whole team is hitting well lately, but they haven’t faced any good lefty pitching. Having our 3 best line up behind Aaron Nola in Game 1 is not only to our advantage, but puts all 3 in an early playoff like test.
Speaking of Nola, his back is against the wall. He knows that if he messes up Game 1, not only is the team in the hole, but so is his spot in the rotation. Getting Walker Buehler was not an innocent move. The Phillies know they need a righty in the rotation at some point and Nola and his 6.78 ERA ain’t cutting it. This is a good test for him as well.
Are We Feeling Positive?
Am I reaching here? Maybe a little bit. What I like about this series coming right now is that with so many things seemingly going wrong, the team will probably be a lot looser. The pitchers know that they have a job to do and the hitters are so thinned out that the Mets could look past them. I’m just feeling good. 180 degrees from how I felt 2 weeks ago!
Philly Front Office 
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