Philly Front Office

Two weeks down and I’m sitting at even. While that is a solid start, it’s not going to be enough to pay the bills. The good news is that last week we were profitable and can now start a winning streak in Week 3. My incredibly handsome Super Bowl MVP QB with his beautiful lips once said, “rent is due every day.” That quote perfectly captures my mindset going into these weekly pick articles. Nothing is given. Everything is earned. I am going to outwork all the other degenerate gamblers and win this season. To show that, this week’s article is going well beyond just five picks.

One team that is achieving early season success are the Red Raiders of Texas Tech. They score points with reckless abandon (129 points scored in two games) while also covering back-to-back massive spreads. Boosters have poured money into this program over the last couple of years and I think the roster is showing that in 2025. Every degenerate gambler has stories of teams they rode during a particular season. One of mine was the Andrew Luck era Stanford Cardinal who easily covered every week’s spread and usually hit every over themselves. It took a while for books to raise the numbers to high enough levels that eventually forced action against them. That might be Texas Tech this season.

The Oregon Ducks look absolutely dominant through two weeks. To embarrass a program like Oklahoma State in the way they did was a major statement. They visit Happy Valley in Week 5 for a major showdown in what will be a white out game for Penn State. Today, the line on that game shows Penn State as 6.5 favorites. I will be laying the wood on Oregon if it stays that way.

Saturday is shaping up to be an amazing sports day. There are lots of really good games this week plus a nice UFC card and a monster boxing matchup on Netflix (EDITOR’S NOTE: Phillies Royals anyone? No? Forget you guys). Add to that the crisp air of the late summer in the Northeast, and you got yourself an elite day. PRO TIP: Do NOT agree to apple picking this weekend. I was absolutely stunned when my wife floated this idea to me the other day. Can you believe she would ask me that? Strap in, boys. The rent is due.

GAME OF THE WEEK: Georgia at Tennessee (+3.5, O/U 49.5), Saturday September 13^th, 3:30 pm EST

The line on this game before the season started had Georgia favored by 7.5 points. What exactly is driving this massive move in the line? Is it an overreaction or a market adjustment based on two weeks of football?

I am betting on this being an overreaction. Here is why:

• Tennessee has beaten two cupcakes in Syracuse and East Tennessee State. In the Syracuse game, the Orange turned the ball over twice and were only outgained by the Vols by about 120 yards.
• I acknowledge that Georgia also hasn’t played anyone yet, either. But they also have been playing without their two best offensive linemen, who will both return this Saturday. The defense is reloaded after losing several first rounders in the draft and I think Kirby Smart is ready to unleash them on Saturday. Smart has notoriously held the dogs back in games against inferior opponents to open past seasons.
• Tennessee will be without their two best corners on Saturday.
• Look at Kirby Smart’s history versus Josh Heupel. Since Heupul became coach in 2021, none of their matchups have been close.

I am gladly taking Georgia here at -3.5.

Texas A&M at Notre Dame (-6.5, O/U 50.5), Saturday September 13th, 7:30 pm EST

This is a must win game for Notre Dame. They drew an impossible spot in their opener in Miami against a team that is showing to be a true national title threat. I thought QB CJ Carr looked pretty good in that tough road environment and if they had better play calling could have actually pulled that game out.

Texas A&M has a lot of offensive talent but lost a lot to the draft on the defensive side of the ball. Notre Dame’s defense might be a top 5 unit in the county, but I think A&M’s athleticism can get some points on the board.

I see this game being a 31-24 type of win for the Irish. Give me the over 50.5 in this one.

Oregon State at Texas Tech (-23.5, O/U 61.5), Saturday September 13th, 3:30 pm EST

You know where I am going with this one if you read my opening. I am riding Texas Tech until I am proven wrong.

Give me over 61.5 and play it up to 63.5. And give me the Red Raiders to cover the -23.5.

Oregon at Northwestern (+27.5, O/U 48.5), Saturday September 13^th, 12:00 pm EST

Again, as stated above, Oregon looks like the best team in the country right now. The noon kickoff (11:00 am local time) on the road gives me a little bit of pause, but Northwestern’s defense is not the caliber of what you have come to expect from them. They rank 122^nd in EPA per rush and I see no way in which they can contain Oregon’s rushing attack. This is probably the last time you can get Oregon at a number that isn’t completely overinflated.

I expect Oregon to be a major public play but I just can’t deny what I am seeing with the Ducks. Lock in Oregon and pay to play it to -28 or less if the number climbs (which I expect to happen).

USF at Miami (-17.5, O/U 57.5), Saturday September 13^th, 4:30 pm EST

This game has some serious juice and as an added bonus is on the CW Network. You might be able to catch some Dawson’s Creek reruns after the game.

USF is coming off back-to-back impressive wins as underdogs and have the attention of the college football world.

Miami is going to give USF the attention they deserve. They are stacked in the trenches, have dynamic wide receivers, and Carson Beck is a legitimate Heisman candidate. I also think USF runs out of gas after a hot start to the season against an extremely formidable opponent.

Miami -17.5 (buy down to -17 if you can) is the play.

Oklahoma at Temple (+23.5, O/U 52.5), Saturday September 13^th, 12:00 pm EST

I went against Oklahoma last week and lost. I am doubling down this week.

This is a situational play for me this time. Temple is certainly no powerhouse but has typically played these types of games tough. Oklahoma is coming off a primetime spot against Michigan last week and has Auburn on deck next week. I am banking on a letdown spot here.

Give me the Owls at the Linc at +23.5 (buy to 24 if you can).

USC at Purdue (+20.5, O/U 60.5), Saturday September 13^th, 3:30 pm EST

I loved USC last week and they cashed for us. I am going the opposite way this week. USC now hits the road for a Big Ten matchup in West Lafayette in a spot where it feels like they are favored by just too much. Once I dug into this one further, I found this eye-popping stat. USC has not won a game east of Colorado since 2012.

I am hammering Purdue at +20.5 and will also be taking the over.

Arkansas at Ole Miss (-6.5, O/U 62.5), Saturday September 13^th, 7:00 pm EST

This is a great matchup. Both teams bring elite offenses that should put up points in bunches. This feels really similar to the SMU vs Baylor game last week that ended up in the high 80’s.

Smash the over 62.5 and enjoy this nighttime SEC matchup.

Last Week: 3-2

2025 Season: 5-5