The Eagles Rams game yesterday ended in an emotional orgasm that had most of us gasping for air in complete euphoria. With nothing left, all we could muster was the post-celebration cigarette of watching Caleb Williams destroy the Cowboys. Life was good. Oh right, there was a Phillies game. Let’s check that out…oh. Ranger gave up 6 runs. Time to scroll the phone. Wait, what’s this? The Mets lost? Again? And the Reds won? They are tied? Wait who has the tie-breaker…OH MY GOD! If the playoffs ended today, the Mets would be out??? The Mets would be out!!! Yup. With one week to go, there is still quite a bit of baseball left to play. Let’s take a look.
National League
Barring any absurd losing streaks, the top 5 in the NL is set. With the Brewers owning the tiebreak on the Phillies, the Phillies owning the tiebreak on the Dodgers, and the Dodgers owning the tiebreak on the Padres, we already know who will be playing who for the most part…except that final playoff spot. It is down to the Mets, Reds, and Diamondbacks. Currently the Mets and Reds are tied at 80-76 while the DBs are 1 game back at 79-77.
Mets (-) – 3 games at Cubs; 3 games at Marlins
Reds (-) – 3 games vs Pirates; 3 games at Brewers
Diamondbacks (-1) – 3 games vs Dodgers; 3 games at Padres
I am biased, but it looks to me that the Mets have the toughest road of the bunch while the Reds have it the easiest. While the Cubs have all but wrapped up the #4 seed over the Padres, it is not official yet meaning they won’t be resting any starters against the Mets. Then they play the Marlins who haven’t had anything to really play for over the last few months but are not technically eliminated yet. Their youthful lineup plays hard every day. Meanwhile, the Reds get the dead Pirates at home followed by the Brewers who will have nothing to play for at that point. The Diamondbacks need to play the Dodgers hard but could be facing a floating Padres team that will be getting their pitching ready to go to Chicago.
It also can’t be discounted that the Mets are all out of home games. They have been fantastic at Citi Field this year but are just 31-44 on the road. Ending on a road trip was not ideal scheduling for the blue and orange.
Tiebreakers
This is where things go from bad to worse for the Mets and from good to great for the Reds. The first level of tiebreak is head to head record. Cincy won the season series against both the Mets and Diamondbacks, so any 2-way ties is in their pocket. If it’s a 3 team tie, it goes to total record vs all tied teams. Obviously, the Reds get that too.
If the Reds fall back and Arizona and NY end up tied in the end, they also have a 3-3 record against each other. The next level of tie break is record within one’s own division. The Mets are 24-25 against the NL East with 3 games to play while the DBs are 25-21 against the rest of the NL West. Though the tiebreak would flip if the Mets swept the Marlins and the DBs lost out, they also wouldn’t be tied. Essentially, the Mets lose all tie breakers.
Final Matchups
(1) Brewers face the winner of (4) Cubs and (5) Padres
(2) Phillies face the winner of (3) Dodgers and (6) Reds/Mets/Diamondbacks
American League
I almost exclusively focus on the Phillies and their rivals, but the AL is just too juicy to leave alone right now. The Blue Jays have the best record, but only a 2 game lead on the Yankees for the division. The Tigers once massive Central Division lead is now down to just 1 over the Guardians. The Mariners have a 3 game lead on the Astros and somehow have the biggest lead in the AL despite being in a dogfight most of the year. Cleveland and Houston are tied for the final wild card with the Yankees firmly 4 games up but the Red Sox clinging to a 1 game lead. The scheduling gods were wise with the final week matchups, so anything can happen.
1 Seed (Winner of AL East)
Blue Jays (+2) – 3 games vs Red Sox; 3 games vs Rays
Yankees (-2) – 3 games vs White Sox; 3 games vs Orioles
The Mariners are still in the picture but 3 games back of the Blue Jays. Toronto holds the tiebreaker on NY and Seattle though. This one is almost wrapped up.
2 Seed (Winner of AL West)
Mariners (+3) – 3 games vs Colorado; 3 games vs Dodgers
Technically the Astros have not been eliminated, but the Mariners are up 3 with 6 to play, own the tiebreaker, and face the Colorado Rockies at home. Winning 2 out of 3 against Colorado wins the AL West and clinches the 2 seed at worst.
3 Seed (Winner of AL Central)
Tigers (+1) – 3 games at Guardians; 3 games at Red Sox
Guardians (-1) – 3 games vs Tigers; 3 games vs Rangers
As the great Keith Jackson would say, WHHHOOOOAAA NELLLLY. The Tigers were cruising most of the year, but seem to have come down with the same bug that afflicted the Phillies last year. Their once huge lead can evaporate completely as soon as Tuesday night in what will be a playoff atmosphere in late September in Cleveland. Currently the Guardians hold a 6-4 lead in the season series so just one win this series gives them the tie break, but Detroit winning 2 of 3 might be all they need to win the division anyway. If the Guardians win 2 out of 3, the division will be tied going into the final series but with Cleveland in possession of the tiebreaker.
4 Seed
Whoever loses the AL East between the Blue Jays and Yankees will likely slot into the 4 seed.
5/6 Seed
Red Sox (+1) – 3 games at Blue Jays; 3 games vs Tigers
Astros (-) – 3 games at Athletics; 3 games at Angels
There are 2 slots left for 3 teams vying for the wild card. Currently the Red Sox own a 1 game lead over both the Guardians and Astros. Houston loses tiebreaks to both Boston and Cleveland, so they have some work to do. Boston has the tiebreak on both. If all 3 end up tied, Boston and Cleveland are in.
Of course, that’s only if Cleveland doesn’t win the AL Central. What happens if the Tigers are in the mix instead? The Tigers swept Boston earlier in the year, but have 3 huge games to end the season. If Detroit wins one of those games, they would probably be in. Detroit also has the tie break on Houston. In the end, the Tigers might be dead men walking, but they do have a good shot to make the playoffs.
Final Matchup Prediction
(1) Blue Jays face the winner of (4) Yankees and (5) Tigers
(2) Mariners face the winner of (3) Guardians and (6) Red Sox
Philly Front Office 
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