[UPDATE: I took out the collusion accusations between the NFL and Buffalo because scheduling is determined years in advance. I’ve still got my eye on you NFL!]
Though with a lot less finger pointing, the Ravens are currently going through an Eagles style media gauntlet of doubters. At 1-3, premature obituaries are running all over the internet throwing dirt on Baltimore’s season. It’s completely ridiculous, even with Lamar Jackson’s injury. The only thing dead here is context, something impossible for most NFL loudmouths to consider. Without going to deep into metrics, body language, or even the mysticism (Mahomes Magic!) that most analysts rely on, just look at the schedule and all of your small sample size worries should be dissolved. The NFL went out of its way this season to give the Ravens, Chiefs, and Eagles absurdly hard schedules. It is just the opposite for the Bills.
Baltimore Ravens
You would be hard pressed to find a team that schedule makers hate more than the Ravens. Here’s a look at their opening 6 weeks (keep in mind that Houston won their division last year and were expected to be better this season):
- at Bills
- vs Browns
- vs Lions
- at Chiefs
- vs Texans
- vs Rams
That’s insane! That is FIVE 2024 division winners to start the season including going to maybe the 2 biggest home field advantages in football. The Browns are the only cupcake on there and the Ravens destroyed them. KC kicked their ass, but the Lions and Bills losses were only a costly fumble each from going the other way. No, there are no moral victories in the NFL, but this is not a team that’s lost.
For more context, the season gets considerably easier for the Ravens from here. Even if they drop 1 of their next 2, they would be 2-4 heading into a bye week then get to face the Bears, Dolphins, Vikings, Browns, Jets, and Bengals. They are going to be 8-4 heading into their early December showdown with Pittsburgh that will probably determine the division.
Yes, the Ravens will need to exercise demons in Buffalo and KC at some point, but this is not a lost season in the least. Even if Lamar Jackson misses the next two weeks and the bye, they will still be in the thick of the Super Bowl conversation by the end of the season. Expect to see revelatory articles about how Baltimore “turned their season around” when really, the schedule just evened out.
Buffalo Bills
The Bills will have the #1 seed in the AFC. It was preordained. Considering the hellscape Baltimore had to start with and the season long Hunger Games of the Eagles, Buffalo is basically picking daisies by a stream on a beautiful summer day. Not only do they play in one of the two worst divisions in football, but their out of conference schedule includes the other worst division, the NFC South. That means two games each against the Jets, Dolphins, and Patriots plus Carolina, Atlanta, and New Orleans. The Browns are in there too. That’s 10 wins before taking a snap.
So far this season they had a great win over Baltimore followed by easy, but closer than you’d think, wins over the Jets, Dolphins, and Saints. Those teams have a combined record of 1-11. That opponent’s win percentage will only continue to devolve in the coming weeks with the Patriots, Falcons, and Panthers on the slate.
Don’t they have to play some good teams like the Ravens, Chiefs, Bucs and Eagles? Not every schedule is perfect, but this is damn close. Do you know how many of those more difficult games are on the road? ZERO! All 4 will be in Buffalo, just like all of their playoff games. Changing the rules to help Buffalo wasn’t enough, now they have to gift wrap them a schedule too. These types of things are predetermined, but it’s a cakewalk nonetheless. They still won’t beat the Chiefs in the playoffs.
Kansas City Chiefs
Going into the season, it wasn’t a crazy to say that there were 5 elite teams in the league: Chiefs, Ravens, Bills, Lions, and Eagles. Throw in the Commanders and you have all your bases covered. Any combination of these 5 + 1 were probably 99% of Super Bowl picks. The Chiefs have to face all of them. They are 1-1 so far. They have Detroit and Washington at home before going to Buffalo in early November.
Even with that incredibly tough first half of the season, KC really can’t relax. Due to their division, they only have a handful of easy games on the schedule. They already beat the Giants, have the Jaguars this week, and the Titans later in the year. Sure, they get the Raiders twice, but that’s a rivalry game.
As much as we all want to see cracks in the Chief armor, they still have one of the greatest QBs of all time and will be getting Rashee Rice back for their receiving corps. The Justin Herbert MVP train derailed against the Giants last week1 allowing the Chiefs back in the division hunt. As long as they make it, they will be battle tested and ready to steal Josh Allen’s lunch again.
Philadelphia Eagles
What the actual f*** is this schedule? Take away the century long rivalries within our division, and we still have one of the hardest schedules you’ve ever seen. As if that wasn’t enough, damn near everything has an extra layer of difficulty like a video game in hard mode. The schedule itself famously has no back-to-back home games all season, and that’s just the beginning.
Our out of division games this year are against the NFC North and the AFC West, probably the two best divisions in the NFL. That means at the Chiefs, Vikings, Packers, and Chargers and home against the Broncos, Lions, Bears, and Raiders. That’s 3 Super Bowl contenders! At least we get the extra home game in LA (winky face).
My favorite two scheduling quirks though are the games at Tampa and at Buffalo. Not only are they good teams, but we have to face them on the road at the worst times. We get to face Tampa in Tampa in September at 1pm, basically the hottest possible game in the NFL.2 Then we get to face Buffalo in Buffalo in late December at 4:25, basically the coldest possible game of the year. That’s some Dark Souls style bullshit. I get it, we have to face division winners because we won our division, but damn.
In the end, we have to face the best of the league in the worst possible conditions. Sucks for everyone else though, they have to face us with all the advantage and still lose. KC and Tampa already took their losses despite having everything go in their favor. To be the man, you have to beat the man, WOOOO!!!!
- All of the talk last week was about Jalen Hurts going 0-8 in the 2nd half against Tampa while possibly being concussed. I didn’t hear anything about Herbert going 6-13 for 39 yards and an interception in the 2nd half against the MUCH worse NY Giants. That INT led directly to a Giant TD. I’m sorry, but that is much worse. ↩︎
- The Bucs have had 8 home games at 1p in September over the last 11 years. This is the hottest most advantageous time for them to be home. Do you know how many of those 8 have been against the Eagles? 3. WTF? ↩︎
Philly Front Office 
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