Philly Front Office

I’ve been downplaying the AJ Brown drama the last few weeks for 3 reasons:

1. He does this every year
2. He is right about the passing game
3. He always gives 100%

…then yesterday happened. Brown got behind the defense on a double move then seemed to give up on the play because he did his job and won the route but was resigned to not getting the ball. Except, he did get the ball. Hurts double clutched and tossed the ball up over the defense, overthrowing a jogging Brown by about 5 yards. Had he not given up on the route, he scores a 61-yard TD and the Eagles go up 24-3 late in the third quarter. Instead, it’s a punt and a 21-17 loss. There were many other individual reasons why the game ended the way it did, but that one sticks out as an unforced error.

Eagles Postgame Week 5: We Needed One Thing, Just One

I still do not believe trading Brown is the answer and do not believe that the Eagles would actually do it midseason, but playing out these scenarios is why I have this website. Let’s dig in.

Brown’s Current Contract

Before last season, Brown signed a 3/$96m contract extension with $84m guaranteed that put him briefly at the top of the WR pecking order. The Eagles acted early on the move because Brown is a star and had significantly outplayed his original 4/$100m deal. Keeping him happy was priority 1 for the Eagles. It seemed to work last year. Unfortunately, this isn’t about the money.

Brown’s cap hit this season is only around $17.5m. The Eagles set up their contracts with option bonuses instead of high salaries because it allows for each year to be spread out over several years for accounting purposes. This strategy works well when you have durable guys who you trust will age well with their contracts. They don’t give contracts to guys they feel will be a problem. That’s why trading Brown is not likely to happen. They simply did not account for ever needing to pull that lever.

Cap Effect of a Trade Before the Deadline

Trading Brown has very little effect on the Eagles 2025 cap situation. He makes a minimum salary so we would only save a few hundred thousand in game checks. However, his previous option years and signing bonus money would come due on next year’s salary cap. Instead of a $23.5m cap hit to play for the Eagles next year, that number would balloon to $43.5m to NOT play for the team.

That’s technically not impossible. Due to the rising cap, the team would still have some money to maneuver around, but much less than if this wasn’t happening obviously. It would free up cash in the future though, just in time for possible extensions for Nolan Smith, Jordan Davis, and Jalen Carter. I’m not calling a possible Brown trade a blessing in disguise because he is one of the best players in the league, but it would clean up the salary ledger in the long run.

Trading Brown This Summer

The offseason is a completely different story. Trading Brown before June 1 would result in the same $43.5m hit as trading him this season. Waiting until after June 1 though lowers his 2026 cap hit by around $7m from $23.5m to $16.5m. The rest of the owed money flows into 2027 to the tune of $27m (his original 2027 cap hit is $22.5m). Not having him on the team and still accounting $27m for him stinks, but its better than $43.5m.

Contracts

Trade Value

Regardless of how unlikely an AJ Brown trade is, Howie Roseman is going to take calls to gauge Brown’s value. It is what he does. Don’t poison yourselves with the bad press either, Brown’s value is sky high. Not only is he still a S-Tier receiver, but his contract is fantastic for an acquiring team.

This year, he would cost less than $1m. Excuse me??? Yes. Because of the option years and signing bonus, Brown would only cost the pro-rated portion of his minimum salary to an acquiring team. As for next year, it is that league minimum salary again, plus $5.5m (1 year’s portion of a $27.5m option bonus). That’s less than $8m for two years of AJ freakin’ Brown!

Considering the Super Bowl aspirations of the Eagles, the financial crater it would cause on our cap sheet, and conversely the monetary unicorn he would ride in to another organization, the initial ask would be 2 first round picks and more. There are teams that would seriously think about paying this like the Chargers, Bears, Browns, and Texans. The thing is, since the Eagles do not have to get rid of him, they are in a position for other teams to rise to their level not the other way around.

So, What Happens?

Having a dead cap hit for one of the best receivers in football is simply not ideal. There is literally no one the Eagles can bring in to replace AJ Brown either. He is a singular talent. DeVonta Smith would be a more than capable #1, but the receiver room gets real thin, real quick. The Eagles would possibly find themselves in a similar situation to the Titans when they traded AJ Brown. By taking a WR high in the draft, they are putting the pressure on a kid to be the next AJ Brown despite that being impossible. In the end, everyone needs to work this out.