Last week I was pretty mad and I’m not thrilled that Topper is coming back, but the Phillies are not the lost cause we were all dreading after an errant throw ended the season. In fact, we are going to be pretty good. Why? Because we have a strong foundation, MLB-ready prospects, and money to spend. Let’s go through it in order to throw a little positivity into an otherwise downer of a sports month.
Foundation
The easiest way to feel good about next year’s Phillies is to look at the rotation. Cristopher Sanchez and Jesus Luzardo were AWESOME in the playoffs after pretty great seasons. Sanchez is going to be runner up for the NL Cy Young award and Luzardo had a 3.03 ERA if you take away the 2 starts where something was wrong and he gave up 20 runs. They will top the rotation next year to begin the season. Zack Wheeler should be back by May or June. Along with the Dodgers, that will be the best trio of arms in baseball. Jesus Luzardo needs a new contract, but we will get to that later.
We also have Bryce Harper and Trea Turner locked into 1st and SS. Yes, they both struggled in 3 out of 4 post season games, but they are still highly productive stars on good contracts. Even if you don’t like the thought of paying Harper over the next 3 years, his $25m luxury tax bill is 29th in baseball. Trea Turner, fresh off a batting title and a resurgent season in the field is making $27m, 19th highest for now. Combined they make as much as Juan Soto (ironically they were all teammates). That’s still pretty good. As much as people want to see Harper back in the outfield, his real positional versatility is likely only with the DH if Schwarber isn’t back.
Jhoan Duran had 400% more walks against the Dodgers than he did during all of his 23 appearances with the Phillies during the regular season. Yes, that is only 4 to 1. That doesn’t mean that we don’t still have one of the most dominant closers in baseball. We still have the cost controlled, dominant closer for 2 more years.
These 6 guys aren’t just good, they’re great and we have them all on reasonable contracts. Only Luzardo has a chance to not be here in 2 years.
What Needs Replacing?
The Phillies best outfielder under contract might be Justin Crawford and he has yet to make his major league debut. Brandon Marsh was fine this year, but he is a platoon bat in left field and a centerfielder only in a pinch. I love Nick Castellanos the Miami guy, but I can’t watch him play baseball anymore. I doubt the Phillies will simply cut him and take the $20m in dead tax hit, but they will have to eat a significant chunk in any trade. The idea for an acquiring team is that they take a flier on him, hope he turns it around, and either trade him or use him themselves. That’s probably a $5m bet some teams would take. I want Harrison Bader to be the CF for this team full time. We’ll see if that can be done.
Just like Castellanos, unless there is an injury, they can probably, FINALLY move Taijuan Walker. He makes $18m in the final year of his deal and will probably have to pay down a lot of that to move the deal. Someone will take him though. Let’s say we have to eat $12m to be conservative.
JT Realmuto NEEDS to be back more than any other free agent. Yes, I know we want 56 HRs back as well, but technically anyone can DH…not just anyone can catch. There is simply no one else out there to catch unless we want to take a flyer on Adley Rutschman.
I would like to end the Alec Bohm Experience. Through arbitration next year, he stands to make around $10m. That’s $10m for weak contact and passable defense. Our clean up hitter had 32 extra base hits last year and only 29 walks. That stinks. He is also 29 years old.
Power and Relief. I don’t know if Kyle Schwarber is coming back. I do know that without him we need to replace a hell of a lot of HRs. Some of that should come with a new outfield, but it’s not guaranteed like it is with Schwarber. We also need at least 2 more solid relievers. David Robertson isn’t coming back, we don’t know what we are getting out of Jose Alvarado next year if he even comes back, and Orion Kerkering is a total wild card.
Who Else Is Staying?
Bryson Stott and Edmundo Sosa are your 2nd basemen next year. Not only do they make a solid platoon with no defensive downside, but they double as our backup shortstop and third baseman if need be. Combined they will probably make around $13m. It is a little much but not crazy.
Aaron Nola has about 5/$125m left on his deal. Who wouldn’t give that contract to Ranger Suarez right now? Unfortunately…well, you know. He is our #4 starter next year. If he can give us closer to average Aaron Nola, we have to be fine with that. At least that large amount is going to be offset by Andrew Painter’s minimum rookie deal. He is your #5 starter. The rotation is set. I love Ranger and do not want him to leave, but for him to stay it probably means that Jesus Luzardo extension talks went south and he is on the block.
Tanner Banks and Matt Strahm are the only other relievers with any job security this season. We do have a guy named Gabe Craig in the minors that I am way too high on, but let’s wait on anointing any internal options just yet.
Let’s Go Shopping!
What’s our budget? Let’s say the Phillies want stay at least near the final tax threshold of around $304m. $22m comes off the top for benefits and minor league salary. Wheeler, Turner, Harper, Nola, Luzardo, Duran, Strahm, Sosa, Sanchez, Stott, and Marchan will cost around $161m. Trades to get rid of Castellanos and Walker will cost around $27m. That means we have close to $95m to spend.
Catcher: This almost has to be JT Realmuto coming back. Do I want that to happen? Ideally, no. There simply is not anyone else to take his place though. For some reason he hit very well against righties last year and couldn’t hit lefties at all.1 I see him costing around $14m next season. ($81m left to spend)
Corner Outfielder: I tried to want Jo Adell or Taylor Ward and I tried to go cheap here in order to get Bo Bichette to be our 3rd baseman, but I just couldn’t do it. Kyle Tucker just makes too much sense. Why? Not only does he make good contact and walks about as much as he strikes out, but guys like him are just not available. The outfield market is flawed in that there is a dearth of inventory. That’s not just this year either, I was looking for trades and there aren’t any out there. The good news is that he looked like an MVP candidate to start the season but tailed off considerably in the second half. Why is that good? Well, instead of Tucker going over $500m, I think a 10/$400m deal is his ceiling. If the Phillies could get him for 8/$280m, that would be tremendous. I’m going to pencil him in for $35m per season here. ($46m left to spend)
Centerfielder: It has to be Harrison Bader. It just has to. He fit in on this team like Cliff Lee in 2009. Everything worked out better than anyone could have imagined. He plays defense. He hits. He isn’t afraid. HE’S ALL WE HAVE!!! Seriously, the CF market sucks. I hope the bidding doesn’t get as high as $15m per season. I am thinking 3/$36m. This was a career year for the 31 year old, so let’s hope it wasn’t a fluke. ($34m left to spend)
Third Baseman: I think Aiden Miller is earmarked for this spot, but probably not to start the season. That means I am out on Alex Bregman. In the meantime, we are going to need a stop gap, preferably one with some versatility who is also cheap. My guy last year and now my guy this year is Yoan Moncada. While he is technically a switch hitter, he is much better from the left side (Miller is a righty). He provides versatility in his position and hit well last year for the Angels. Despite nearly half the at bats of Alec Bohm he almost matched his production and actually walked more. Moncada played for $5m last year and will probably get something similar this year. He will keep the seat warm for Miller and provide quality backup when he gets here. 2/$10m. ($29m left to spend)
Two Relievers: A lot of expensive arms went belly up last year including Ryan Pressly, Ryan Helsley, and Devin Williams. The first move is to bring back Jose Alvarado at around $5m per season rather than his $9m current mark. The second move is to get Kolby Allard back from the Guardians. He was shockingly good for Cleveland last year and will cost $2m this season, his final year of arbitration. Do you think we need one more? You think we need one more. The Rays got Griffin Jax at the deadline because they are not going to pay Pete Fairbanks $12.5m this season. That’s a lot to pay. Because of that though, it probably will not cost as much to pry him loose. ($9.5m left to spend)
Power 1B/DH: I want Kyle Schwarber back, but not at 5/$150m. I don’t think he will actually cost that much, but for this exercise, let’s say he goes somewhere else. I’m sorry, I can’t even think about Pete Alonso. I’ve hear he’s a good person and he is certainly clutch, but I just can’t. Imagine if the Eagles signed Deebo Samuel or the Flyers got Sidney Crosby. It just wouldn’t be right. I just can’t shake how badly the Phillies and Dave Dombrowski want to break into the Japanese market. That means…
Nope, not Munetaka Murakami. If you don’t know this guy, he is the premier slugger coming out of Japan this year in the Godzilla Hideki Matsui mold. He will be 26 and experts are claiming he will sign for $200m+…in Los Angeles or New York. I don’t think the Phillies will win that war. However, he is not the only power hitting 1st baseman being posted. My guy is Kazuma Okamoto. Okamoto is 4 years older and has been on the radar for years. While Murakami is the phenom with declining numbers, Okamoto has been a steady 30+ HR and 30 2B for years. He does not strikeout too much and takes his walks. He will also cost considerably less than Murakami. 3 years ago the Red Sox signed Masataka Yoshida to a 5/$90m contract. While Yoshida hit for a better average, Okamoto hits for more power. They will likely get similar contracts.
Wait! You are over budget! Yes, yes I am. This plan only works with a Japanese player in the fold. While we might think of this as a silly overpay, the Phillies think of it as an investment in the Japanese pipeline. Why should Japanese free agents only consider LA, SF, and NY? Dombrowski and Middleton want to get Philly’s foot in the door bad and he would overpay to do it, just like with Yamamoto 2 years ago (the Phillies were rumored to have the highest bid). (-$8.5m left to spend)
Remaining Roster: Between Tanner Banks, Gabe Craig, Johan Rojas, Andrew Painter, Aiden Miller and Justin Crawford, we need to fill out the rest of the roster. They should cost another $5m. That means we are over budget and the 4th level of luxury tax by $13.5m. Maybe that means no Fairbanks maybe it means we give up a little more on Castellanos and Walker’s trades, maybe it just means John Middleton pays the extra $15m in tax. I don’t know, but I like this roster:
- SP: Cristopher Sanchez, Jesus Luzardo, Zack Wheeler, Aaron Nola, Andrew Painter
- RP: Jhoan Duran, Pete Fairbanks, Matt Strahm, Kolby Allard, Tanner Banks, Jose Alvarado, Max Lazar, Gabe Craig
- C: JT Realmuto, Rafael Marchan
- 1B/DH: Bryce Harper, Kazuma Okamoto
- 2B: Bryson Stott, Edmundo Sosa
- 3B: Aiden Miller, Yoan Moncada
- SS: Trea Turner
- OF: Kyle Tucker, Harrison Bader, Justin Crawford, Otto Kemp, Johan Rojas
Batting Order:
| Order | vs R | vs L |
| 1 | Trea Turner | Trea Turner |
| 2 | Bryce Harper | Bryce Harper |
| 3 | Kyle Tucker | Kazuma Okamoto |
| 4 | Kazuma Okamoto | Kyle Tucker |
| 5 | Bryson Stott | Harrison Bader |
| 6 | JT Realmuto | Edmundo Sosa |
| 7 | Harrison Bader | JT Realmuto |
| 8 | Yoan Moncada | Aiden Miller |
| 9 | Justin Crawford | Justin Crawford |
- Despite this, the manager almost exclusively had back up switch hitter Rafael Marchan hit against righties despite being much better from the other side. ↩︎
Philly Front Office 
Leave a comment