Last week I guaranteed a winning week. If not for two horrible bad beats on overs that absolutely should have hit, I would have cruised. Instead, I ended at a very sad, flaccid, poor, and inept 5-5. However, a wise man once told me “A push is a win, young man” and so I am going to go with that advice. You see, I did, in fact, win last week. My picks against the spread were strong; it was just those damn overs that I went a little overboard with. I told you I am seeing the board well. It’s time to double down!
Before getting into the picks, it’s a good time to check in on current playoff odds and what we could be looking at for this year’s playoff landscape. The first official playoff rankings come out in less than two weeks.
Playoff Locks
Ohio State (current odds are not listed on major gambling sites because they are making the playoffs)
The Buckeyes are simply kicking everyone’s asses right now. They haven’t been challenged in a game yet and no one on their remaining schedule poses much of a risk. The only game that might be close is their regular season finale at archrival Michigan. If they somehow lose that game and then lose the Big Ten championship game, they will still get in. They are the clear favorite to win it all again.
Indiana (-2500 to make the playoffs)
Who would have thought that Indiana would be looking at back-to-back playoff appearances? They once again field elite coaching, QB play, and defense and that’s a formula that will always be successful. It’s going to be interesting to see the Hoosiers and Buckeyes square off in the Big Ten title game before the playoffs kick off.
Alabama (-800 to make the playoffs)
As I mentioned last week, Alabama has been white hot. They easily beat Tennessee (and covered) and have now won against the #5, #16, #14, and #11 teams over the last month. It’s tough to envision a scenario where they don’t get in. Their two toughest remaining games against LSU and Oklahoma are both at home.
Texas A&M (-650 to make the playoffs)
Texas A&M is always a strong program. But they have been overshadowed of late by all the Texas hype. This year is different. They have their signature win already at Notre Dame. Their three most difficult remaining games are at LSU this week, at Missouri the following week, and then their season finale at Texas (I am very grateful that this rivalry has been restored). Even if they lose one of those games, they are guaranteed to be in. Lose two and it’s still probably better than 50/50.
Likely Getting In
Notre Dame (-320 to make the playoffs)
If you watched the Irish at all this year, this should not be controversial, but because they are Notre Dame, it will be. They are really good. Their two losses were close games to top ranked teams, with the Miami loss coming the first week of the season on the road before they figured out their ideal offensive scheme. As long as they win out (which they should), they will be in. If you think that’s unfair, ask yourself this question. Are there really 12 teams in the country better than Notre Dame? Of course not.
Miami (-270 to make the playoffs)
That was a bad loss last week to Louisville. While the Cardinals are no slouch, the loss for the Hurricanes came at home and featured a miserable performance by Carson Beck. To add insult to injury, he then threw his team under the bus in the post-game press conference. This team is too talented not to get in, but they will not be a true threat to win it all.
Texas Tech (-150 to make the playoffs)
The Red Raiders finally lost last week and because they are in the Big 12, their playoff chances took a big hit. However, it’s important to note that the loss at Arizona State was played with their backup QB. Texas Tech is still the best team in the Big 12 though, and they will win the conference getting the automatic bid. There is value in taking them at their current odds to win the title (+3000).
Oregon (-400 to make the playoffs)
Oregon deserves to get in assuming they win out. Their toughest remaining game comes in late November at home against USC. The Ducks have lost some of their luster since losing at home as a significant favorite against Indiana although that loss is looking better and better.
Georgia (-300 to make the playoffs)
Georgia checks a lot of boxes (SEC team, elite offensive line and ground attack, resume, etc). But this year’s team lacks the elite defense that we have come to expect from this program (thankfully a ton of their elite alumni play for the Birds now). They still have to get through Texas and a surprisingly awesome Georgia Tech team this season, but I don’t see a scenario where they lose more than one of their remaining games.
Might Not Get In But Should
Georgia Tech (+115 to make the playoffs)
The Yellow Jackets will be undefeated heading into their regular season finale against the aforementioned Georgia Bulldogs. My guess is that the line on that game will be Georgia -4 and, if that is the case, I will be laying the hammer on Georgia Tech. That said, if they lose that game and then win the ACC championship, they are in. If they lose both, they won’t get in. But even with two potential losses, I really like this team and think they are a top 12 team in the country.
Vanderbilt (+240 to make the playoffs)
I don’t know how you can watch this team and think they shouldn’t be in the dance. If they end up winning out (which is a big if), they will get in. But they have road games at Texas and Tennessee still remaining and won’t get the benefit of the doubt over the SEC blue bloods.
Should Not Get In But The Committee Will Give Them Every Benefit of The Doubt
Texas (+165 to make the playoffs)
Texas had 179 yards of total offense and 8 first downs against Kentucky last week. They somehow got the win in overtime despite being outgained by over 200 yards. They still have games against Vandy, Georgia, and Texas A&M remaining. Their current odds of +165 make no sense to me given the strong likelihood that they lose two of those three games. Arch Manning stinks and I think Sarkisian may have fallen off the wagon again. On a separate and hilarious note, Robert Griffin III tweeted out on August 19th “I’m convinced that the Indianapolis Colts are trying to tank for Arch Manning”. Talk about being down bad.
The Picks
Now onto the picks. I am going to refrain from my addiction to points and very selectively take only a couple of overs this week. I am tightening things up and cutting this shit out.
This Saturday will be spent with my family at a rodeo for a friend’s birthday. There are apparently pig races that hopefully we can gamble on so it’s shaping up to be an eventful day. Add to that, my friend has a great rack (he’s a man with the silky hair of an Asian ladyboy). Hopefully there is a TV available to catch some of these games and hopefully he reads this and sees my compliments. Let’s go!
North Texas at Charlotte (+25.5, O/U 60.5), Friday, October 24th, 7:00 pm EST
My Friday Night Special. And yes, I said I was cutting this shit out, but this is simply an over I can’t ignore. Charlotte sucks badly and North Texas puts up massive amounts of points. This one is hitting.
SMU at Wake Forest (+3.5, O/U 53.5), Saturday, October 25th, 12:00 pm EST
Wake is coming off a bye and in a nice spot as a home dog against SMU. This is a game I must bet out of principle. These teams are pretty similar and I will gladly take the 3.5 points on the Demon Deacons.
Northwestern at Nebraska (-7.5, O/U 44.5), Saturday, October 25th, 12:00 pm EST
A classic Big Ten matchup. I expect long drives, lots of punts, and good defense. Northwestern is playing good football right now having beaten Penn State, UCLA, and Purdue in the last month. I think they stay inside this number. Give me the Wildcats and make sure you get the +7.5.
BYU at Iowa State (-2.5, O/U 49.5), Saturday, October 25th, 3:30 pm EST
Another spot play. Iowa State is coming off a bye after losing their last two games on the road. BYU hits the road after a grueling home win in the Holy War against Utah. They were outgained in that game by over 100 yards but ultimately pulled out the victory by winning the turnover battle. The Big 12 is wide open and has many teams that can win it to grab its guaranteed playoff spot. Yes, BYU is undefeated but Iowa State needs to win this game or its season is over. I have to bet it because of all the factors I just outlined. Give me the Cyclones money line at -130.
Baylor at Cincinnati (-3.5, O/U 67.5), Saturday, October 25th, 4:00 pm EST
We know Baylor’s defense is awful. I expect a high scoring game here but instead of just taking the over, I am going to get saucy and take the team total over on the Bearcats at 34.5 -130.
Michigan at Michigan State (+13.5, O/U 47.5), Saturday, October 25th, 7:30 pm EST
I was dead set on only taking two overs this week. But this one is just screaming from the mountain tops to me. Michigan State’s defense is horrific. I like the fact that it’s a night game on national television and I like Michigan’s offense to score at least 30 here. I think we get there on the over.
Texas A&M at LSU (+2.5, O/U 48.5), Saturday, October 25th, 7:30 pm EST
My final over play for the week. A&M’s offense is flat out awesome and LSU will be able to score on the A&M defense. The line being in the 40s scares me a little as it shows that the bookmakers expect a lower scoring game, but scared money does not make money. Take the over and buy it down to 47.5.
Houston at Arizona State (-7.5, O/U 45.5), Saturday, October 25th, 8:00 pm EST
This line is inflated in my opinion. Yes, Arizona State has the major advantage of being at home but I just don’t see how they are favored by more than a touchdown. As stated again, the Big 12 is wide open and these two teams are in that group that can win it. I am taking the Cougars +7.5.
Last Week: 5-5
2025 Season: 28-34-1
Philly Front Office 
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