Philly Front Office

We are two months into the football season and there aren’t any great teams. There are a few contenders who seem to be above the rest, but no one is without their flaws and running away with things. So, without a superteam, who should be the NFL MVP?

If you are asking the gambling community, the answer is Patrick Mahomes who is the clear favorite across all the major books. Right behind him? That would be Josh Allen. Now, it is important to note that Las Vegas does not simply place odds on who they think will win this early in the season, but rather balances who they think will win with who the bets are coming in on. People will be on Patrick Mahomes more than Jonathan Taylor because they know Patrick Mahomes. Still, take a look at these odds from MGM as of October 29:

I’m not going to sugar coat it, this is ridiculous. Let’s go down the list:

1. Patrick Mahomes – We are in the midst of the most predictable narrative in the world. After a slow start to the season, Rashee Rice came back to face the terrible Raiders and the Jayden Daniels-less Commanders and the Chiefs were declared super powers again. Yes, he has 21 total TDs, but also 4 INTs and 3 fumbles. His only good win so far is a home victory over the Lions, while also losing to the Jaguars and Trevor Lawrence. Mahomes is still great and rumors of the Chiefs demise were greatly exaggerated, but his mistakes directly led to two of his team’s losses including to Jalen Hurts and the Eagles.
2. Josh Allen – After the first week of the season, it looked like Allen was going to be even better than his MVP form from last year. He pulled a win out from underneath Lamar Jackson in unbelievable fashion. Then the rest of the season happened. three of his 5 wins are against the 3 worst teams in the league and last week he defeated a surprising Carolina team that just happened to be without their starting QB. He has 17 total TDs, but 7 turnovers so far. In the Bills’ two losses, Allen turned the ball over 6 times.
3. Drake Maye – The hype behind Maye is absurd right now. The Patriots are an overachieving 6-2 and beat the Bills, making everyone lose their mind. In reality, the Bills are the only good team so far on the Pats schedule and even they were in the middle of a free fall at the time. Their other 5 wins were against the Dolphins, Panthers, Saints, Titans, and Browns. They lost to the RAIDERS!!! So, while you want your QB to beat the bad teams, and Maye is doing that with a nice 5:1 TD to INT ratio, there’s a big difference between facing the worst and facing the best. What he does have going for him is a VERY easy rest of his schedule too. Only the Bucs and the Bills stand much of a challenge.
4. Matthew Stafford – After a 5 TD effort against the Jags in London, Stafford is all of a sudden having a much better season than you realize. The Rams have an OT loss to SF and a last second loss to the Eagles. The problem is that their only good win is against the Colts (who might not actually be good). This leaves Stafford at a solid 17 TDs but with 5 turnovers. I think it’s ridiculous that he’s 4th overall here, but top 8 probably makes sense. His next 3 games are against Seattle, SF, and Tampa, so we’ll see if he keeps it up.
5. Baker Mayfield – The darling of the NFL just 2 weeks ago is not having the kind of season you think he is. Despite being considered Captain Comeback, it is his lack of solid play the rest of the game that is making those comebacks possible. He leads the NFL with 6 fumbles and has lost an astounding 5 of them. He only has 2 INTs, but both led directly to Bucs losses. He only has 13 TDs. He’s been flashy, but shouldn’t be in the running for the big award even with the 6-2 start.
6. Jonathan Taylor – Taylor leads the NFL with 850 rushing yards and 14 TDs. That’s 1800 yards and 30 TD pace. If Saquon can’t get MVP last year with what he did, Taylor would probably have to come close to the single season TD record held by Ladanian Tomlinson at 31.
7. Daniel Jones – Jones is 100% without a doubt, the feel good story of the year. He has the Colts at 7-1 and looking great under Shane Steichen after bottoming out with the Giants. He has 17 total TDs and only 3 INTs. That’s just steady work. He is having every bit as good a season as Mahomes and probably better than Allen right now. Granted he doesn’t have any flashy victories either, but he is doing all that you could hope for from a starting QB. We’ve seen other QBs try to make something out of nothing and lose, Jones isn’t forcing it and winning. He hasn’t exactly faced a tough defense yet though and still has the Texans fearsome D twice on the schedule. We’ll see how he holds up.
8. Jordan Love – Love had a great game against the Steelers while in the Aaron Rodgers spotlight and everyone forgot that he’s been a solid but not spectacular QB this year. He has 13 TDs and only 3 turnovers, but other than the initial win over the Lions, the Packers haven’t played anyone. I will absolutely change my tune if he shreds the Eagles in two weeks, but that’s not happening.
9. Jared Goff – What is it about Goff that people don’t like? Is it the falling out with the Rams? He has 15 TDs in 7 games with only 3 INTs. He has good losses to the Packers and Chiefs on the road while also beating the Ravens with Lamar Jackson and the Bucs last week. He should probably be 3rd or 4th on the list rather than 9th.
10. Jalen Hurts – I know I’m an Eagles fan, but Jalen Hurts having the 10th best odds to win is astounding. He is 6-2 with 20 total TDs and 1 INT. He has wins over Tampa in Tampa, KC in KC, and the Rams plus shredded the #1 passing defense in the NFL 2 weeks ago to a perfect passer rating. His only knock is yards per game. Why should he be penalized for not being behind in games that he has controlled? He has had to deal with more drama for winning games than any of these other QBs get for losing. The Eagles have had their troubles this season, but anyone who has watched knows that the cliche knocks against Hurts simply aren’t valid any more. He makes smart throws, accurate throws, deep throws, and other than against the Giants, doesn’t make any mistakes. In a down year for the NFL overall, Hurts is at the top of his game. He should probably be #1 on this list right now. Tell me how good any of these other guys would be against the same competition?