Philly Front Office

In other sports, teams are on a level playing field when it comes to free agents financially other than state income tax. In baseball though, there is a clear demarcation between the spenders and the spend-nots. There is simply no chance that a team like the Marlins is going to sign Kyle Tucker even if they have $250m less in payroll commitments than the Dodgers. Who is actually in the market for the big names out there? By my count, it’s only 8 teams. Of course, it is always possible for someone to open the checkbook especially for a single player they feel might complete their team. The following 8 though you have to assume are willing to be in on anyone.

Dodgers

• Overview: The Dodgers just won the World Series (again) and have no significant free agents on the market. That being said, they very clearly had a bullpen problem by the end of the year with Blake Trienan, Tanner Scott, and Kirby Yates being completely ineffective.
• Significant Free Agents: None
• 2025 Payroll: $416m
• 2026 Budget: Infinite (I’m not kidding. Unlike every other team on this list, the Dodgers make a significant profit every year. They are only limited by the 26-man roster)
• Needs: 2B, 3B, RP, OF
• Targets:
  • They could do whatever they want including adding another high-priced Starter to combat injuries or if they want to move Roki Sasaki to the closer role full time. That being said, Bo Bichette could come in to play 2B/3B and Kyle Tucker could play the outfield they are going to be in on everyone because they can
  • That being said, the market you would expect them to be in, Japanese players, might not be on their radar this time. Munetaka Murakami might be able to play 3rd, but he is more of a DH/1B guy and that’s one of the few places the Dodgers can’t make any moves due to Freddie Freeman and Shohei Ohtani. Kazuma Okamoto is in the same boat.
  • If there’s one guy on the reliever market that would move the needle for them it’s Edwin Diaz. He’s the top bullpen arm and the only one without significant flaws.

The Value of Phillies Under Contract

Mets

• Overview: The Mets collapsed bad last year and that will probably mean that Uncle Steve opens his checkbook again. It wasn’t the offense that was the problem, it was the pitching. With 3 rookies potentially in the rotation next year, they need to go get an ace desperately. It was always strange that they weren’t in on Corbin Burnes last year.
• Significant Free Agents: Edwin Diaz, Pete Alonso
• 2025 Payroll: $341m
• 2026 Budget: Even though Steven Cohen has more money than anyone but the Dodgers’ conglomerate, billionaires don’t exactly like to lose money for no reason. The Mets lost $260m in 2024 and likely lost $100m more last year. The Mets aren’t going to cut payroll, but I bet $350m is the upper limit.
• Needs: Starting pitching (!!!), bullpen, power, CF
• Targets:
  • Raiding the Phillies for Ranger Suarez and Kyle Schwarber is high on the list of fears this offseason. Because the Mets are led by an evil billionaire, things can get personal. While the Dodgers do not care about things like this, Steve Cohen does. He stuck it to the Yankees last year and could look to do the same to the Phillies this year even if his GM is not keen on the idea.
  • Munetaka Murakami will likely want to be in the NY market if LA is out. He could be the Alonso replacement if they do not want to bring him back. The Yankees will want in too.
  • Brandon Woodruff is a former addition of Mets GM David Stearns when he was with the Brewers. He seems more likely than the Frambar Valdez or Dylan Cease due to Stearns desire to not sign pitchers to long term contracts
  • Reunions with Diaz and Alonso seem more likely than not to me.

Yankees¹

• Overview: The Yankees spent big on their bullpen last year and it simply didn’t work. Also, as soon as they get to the playoffs, the homeruns seem to stop going out.
• Significant Free Agents: Cody Bellinger, Trent Grisham, Paul Goldschmidt
• 2025 Payroll: $318m
• 2026 Budget: Probably about the same. The thing with second generation money is that they don’t want to lose what was given to them because they don’t know how to make more of it. It’s for this reason that the Yankees are not the same Yankees you grew up with. George Steinbrenner was the budget. That’s not true anymore.
• Needs: 1B, RP
• Targets:
  • The Yankees do not seem like a petty organization, so even though they need a first baseman and a reliever, don’t expect them to automatically be in on Pete Alonso and Edwin Diaz, though it’s not out of the question.
  • The Yankees are in a slight bind because of Aaron Judge and his elbow injuries. There is a legitimate chance that he becomes a DH only guy faster than anyone realized. For this reason, Kyle Schwarber is probably not a good candidate for the Bronx.
  • Bellinger seems like a lock to stay, so they are probably out on Kyle Tucker.
  • For the first base role, expect them to be VERY in on both Japanese stars, Murakami and Okamoto.

Blue Jays

• Overview: A runner up World Series finish in Game 7 is going to sting and probably mean the Blue Jays are going to reload as best as possible. They may be owned by a 3rd party company, but unlike the Braves Corp, the Blue Jays don’t seem to mind spending money.
• Significant Free Agents: Bo Bichette
• 2025 Payroll: $280m
• 2026 Budget: The Blue Jays have always been a team ready to spend but with few willing to take their money. Even though they are owned by a corporation, they could see increased spending simply because players might actually want their money after what happened this season. Expect them to go right up to the final tax line.
• Needs: SP, RP
• Targets:
  • Having Max Scherzer start Game 7 probably wasn’t ideal. While Trey Yesavage was the story of the playoffs, they probably would like to add one more good arm. Ranger Suarez and his proven playoff chops should be the guy.
  • As much as I want the Phillies to pursue Bichette, the Blue Jays are in the position to bring him back both financially and sentimentally, considering his huge HR in Game 7 that was almost enough. That being said, they don’t actually need him back in theory.
  • If they do not bring back Bichette, throwing money at Diaz is a possibility. Moving Jeff Hoffman to a setup role is probably in their best interest.

Red Sox

• Overview: The Red Sox plan to develop the farm and then spend on the big club finally yielded fruit this season with the trade and extend of Garret Crochet, signing of Alex Bregman, and several big-league graduations. The 2026 team is missing a star hitter.
• Significant Free Agents: Alex Bregman
• 2025 Payroll: $245m
• 2026 Budget: The Red Sox operate like a team strapped for cash but they rake in money every year thanks to a fully optimized Fenway Park and running payrolls lower than they can afford. There’s no reason they aren’t around $300m but will probably stick south of $250m
• Needs: 1B, power
• Targets:
  • Pete Alonso is going to be the main target considering their need at 1st base, need for power, and his ability to be Boston’s favorite cornball.
  • Anyone speculating that Kyle Schwarber is in the running for Boston seems to forget that he can’t play first base. Yes, they could do a double power whammy of Alonso at 1st and Schwarber at DH, but the Red Sox do not seem like an organization to put so many years into the DH role (despite doing that so famously with David Ortiz for so long).

Giants

• Overview: The addition of Rafael Devers changed a lot of things for the Giants who have always struggled to bring in free agent hitters due to their ballpark.
• Significant Free Agents: None
• 2025 Payroll: $218m
• 2026 Budget: The Giants are another team that always want to spend money but have trouble getting players to take it. Payroll was down last year, so if a star wants to take their money they probably have up to $244m to spend.
• Needs: SP, 2B, OF
• Targets:
  • Bo Bichette seems like the kind of player who plays for the Giants. His ability to hit for contact and to all fields makes their home park ideal for his kind of game. He would have to agree to playing 2nd base though which makes a union probably unlikely
  • They will probably be involved as a bridesmaid in the Kyle Tucker sweepstakes after they do not go high enough to get him but stay involved.
  • IT is hard to imagine Ranger Suarez in any other uniform and definitely not playing for the Mets. SF though? That makes some sense right?

Cubs

UPDATE: The Cubs completely botched their Shota Imanaga situation. They turned down his contract option that would have been for around $16m only to offer him the Qualifying Offer that they had to believe he would reject. Well, he too kit. That’s $22m less to spend this offseason and might take them out of most high profile bidding

• Overview: The Cubs just fizzled out right when they needed to pick it up. The big question is going to be how badly do they want to keep Kyle Tucker?
• Significant Free Agents: Kyle Tucker
• 2025 Payroll: $227m
• 2026 Budget: $244m (tax threshold 1)
• Needs: DH, RF, Ace, RP
• Targets:
  • A reunion with Kyle Schwarber makes sense considering their lack of power, but he might be part of a domino effect of Kyle Tucker going elsewhere. I expect the Phillies to be in on Tucker first, so if one of these two wins the Tucker sweepstakes, expect the other to be in on Schwarber.
  • Maybe it’s because he played for the White Sox, but Dylan Cease is probably on the Cubs’ radar. They probably need someone better than him but will settle…if paying $200m+ can be considered settling.

An Ideal and Rational Phillies Offseason

Phillies

• Overview: The Phillies either have all of their free agents or a ton of money to spend. Either way, they are major players in free agency.
• Significant Free Agents: Kyle Schwarber, Ranger Suarez, JT Realmuto
• 2025 Payroll: $308m
• 2026 Budget: Right up to the final tax line, $304m…and then a little more if they have a chance at a Japanese player
• Needs: Power and outfielders
• Targets:
  • JT Realmuto is the most likely of all our free agents to return. We have a need and he wants to be a starter on a contender. No one is going to overthink this.
  • Kyle Tucker is the ideal addition to the Phillies, there is no sugar coating it. He plays the outfield and we are in desperate need of something positive from the position.
  • The Phillies will absolutely be in on Munetaka Murakami and Kazuma Okamoto. It is killing Dombrowski and company that they are just completely shut out of the Eastern market. Ohtani wouldn’t give them a meeting and Yamamoto wouldn’t take their money. If Kyle Schwarber is not coming back, then these two will be on the wish list.

1. In some ways being a Yankees fan might seem good, considering the history and prestige, but any season that doesn’t end in a championship is taken like disaster. That seems like a horrible way to live. Also, how come the Phillies got shit about CBP being a “band box” but Yankees hitters becoming the biggest HR threats in baseball magically doesn’t lend itself to any Yankee Stadium derision? ↩︎