Philly Front Office

MLB Free Agency is here, and the hot stove is…well not hot yet. Don’t fret! We are going to get some prediction wood and really light this thing up nicely. Promise. Here are the top 10 free agents out there along with predictions on teams and contracts. I’ll probably get to 11-20 next week. Last year, I didn’t do too bad calling teams for Soto, Adames, Alonso, Santander, and Teoscar Hernandez, while getting the Corbin Burnes contract numbers dead on (but wrong team). Let’s get to it…

(Ranked by CBS Sports)

1. Kyle Tucker
   • Overview: Tucker was a tale of two seasons last year with a torrid first half cooling off in the second half, likely due to injury. Before the injury, he was looking at maybe the 3rd biggest contract of all time in the $500m+ range. That’s probably not happening anymore. He does have one significant thing going for him though: good, young, outfielders are not hitting free agency anymore. Tucker is a 5+ WAR player who turns 29 this off season. He will be a hot commodity.
   • Prediction: The Dodgers are going to play in this game, but the Mets and Yankees probably will not because they can’t handle other outfielders. He is exactly the kind of player the Phillies need though. He can replace Nick Castellanos and give us the kind of consistency and plate discipline that we haven’t had from an OF in years. Phillies – 10/$425m
2. Alex Bregman
   • Overview: Alex Bregman has to have the weirdest free agency case there is. Last year he didn’t have a market but still found his way into a 4/$120m contract with multiple opt-outs. He wants a 5-year deal, but he also missed 50 games last year. With Kristian Campbell and Marcelo Mayer in the fold and #1 prospect Franklin Arias maybe not that far away, the Red Sox are not going to throw him the same bone this offseason. He is back where he was last year, who wants to give a 32-year-old 3rd baseman a big deal?
   • Prediction: This comes down to whether the Phillies or Dodgers want to upgrade at 3rd base. My guess is that the Dodgers want that upgrade more. Unfortunately for him, he is going to find that his market is just as bad as last year. Bregman will probably sign an incredibly strange deal with opt outs, deferred money, strange guarantees, and performance bonuses. Dodgers – 4/$140m with half of each season deferred into the future and an opt out after each season.
3. Bo Bichette
   • Overview: Bichette ended up playing 2nd base when he returned for the World Series because Andres Gimenez was playing SS. While they could bring him back and move Gimenez back to SS, that might not be what is best for the team in the long term. Still, odds are they run it back.
   • Prediction: BUT THAT’S NO FUN!!! In my gut, Bichette seems like a Giant to me. They are always the team that tries to give out money and no one takes it. With Chapman at 3rd, Adames at SS, and Devers likely at first or DH, they could use a high average guy playing 2nd base. Giants – 11/$301m
4. Framber Valdez
   • Overview: Personally, I want nothing to do with this guy after he threw at his own catcher and then the catcher took the blame for it! That’s probably not going to affect his market though since he is considered the best pitcher available. The Astros need him, but there is no way they are ponying up for him after dealing Tucker last year and not resigning Bregman. At 32, he is probably going to get less money and years than people think though.
   • Prediction: The Mets got cheap last year with starting pitching and it killed them. I refuse to predict Ranger to them, so I will go with Valdez. If one is a good guy and one is a bad guy, I’ll send the bad guy to Queens. Mets – 5/$150m
5. Kyle Schwarber
   • Overview: There is no comparable for Kyle Schwarber other than David Ortiz 20 years ago (which is not very helpful). The good news for Phillies fans is that the Dodgers and Yankees are not going to be in on his bidding because they can’t field a DH. The Reds are the sentimental favorite, but despite them having a ton of money to spend they probably are not going to spend it. The Red Sox are rumored, but they aren’t going to shell out top dollar for a DH. That leaves the Phillies, Cubs, and Mets.
   • Prediction: The bad news is – and it pains me to write this – that I have this awful feeling that the Mets are going to do to the Phillies this year what they did to the Yankees last year with Juan Soto and just not lose a bidding war. I hope I’m wrong. Mets – 4/$140m¹
6. Cody Bellinger
   • Overview: I still don’t think anyone actually trusts Cody Bellinger. After bursting on to the scene with the Dodgers and winning MVP he completely fell off a cliff before rebounding with the Cubs. With the Yankees last year he hit 29 HRs with an .813 OPS and great defense which caused him to opt out of the final year of his contract. In theory he would be great in Philly as an outfielder with a history of reverse splits and could be an option without Tucker. Away from Yankee Stadium though, he wasn’t very good. There is still a bad Bellinger lurking in there.
   • Prediction: I can’t really explain it, but he is exactly the guy who goes back to the Yankees. I’m not sure who else would like to have him at the kind of dollars he is going to want. Maybe the Dodgers, but probably not. Yankees – 4/$110m.
7. Pete Alonso
   • Overview: Alonso had a tough go of free agency last year but delivered a fantastic platform season with probably his best showing since he was a rookie. Within minutes of the Mets losing he announced that he would opt out of his contract. Is that part of the negotiation or does he want out? Kind of like how I can’t see Ranger Suarez in a jersey other than the Phillies, Pete Alonso belongs with the Mets. Like Sanchez though, he is going to switch teams.
   • Prediction: He won’t be switching cities though. The Yankees return the favor on the Mets for poaching Soto and land the first baseman they’ve been needing for a while. He fits what they want to do too. Putting Alonso behind Judge in the batting order is going to be a problem for teams. The Yankees understand how that works. Yankees – 5/$150m
8. Ranger Suarez
   • Overview: I don’t want him to leave! We need to accept it though, the Phillies are probably not going to keep him. As much as they love pitching, the coming of Andrew Painter and the drafting of Gage Wood means this is the area they plan on saving money in the future. He is also going to have an awesome market. Who doesn’t want the guy who always pitches well in the playoffs and is unflappable? The Mets, Red Sox, Giants, and Blue Jays will all be in on him. It is possible that it comes down to Ranger or Luzardo for the Phillies.
   • Prediction: Ranger is going to follow Jeff Hoffman north to Toronto and be loved. Their pitching is going to get real thin real fast after 2026. After what they just saw from the Dodgers, they know they not only need more pitching, but versatile pitching too. Blue Jays – 6/$150m
9. Dylan Cease
   • Overview: I saw that someone predicted a 6/$200m+ contract and that seems insane. Cease’s breakout came 4 seasons ago now and he has 1 decent season since then. He is very durable and strikes out a ton of batters, but he also gets hit around. I see him signing a decent contract with some opt outs that allow him to rebuild his value.
   • Prediction: I am split on whether he goes to the Mets or Red Sox, but since I already have the Mets signing a pitcher, that will tip the scales ever so slightly. Red Sox – 3/$75m with opt outs after each season.
10. JT Realmuto
    • Overview: I went through JT’s whole market and comparables about 2 months ago but nothing has changed. Essentially the Phillies do not have anyone else to turn to as their full-time starting catcher and JT does not have any other options as the full-time starting catcher on a contender. They simply need each other.
    • Prediction: JT has to come back to the Phillies. It is a mutually satisfactory situation where the team doesn’t have anyone else and the player has nowhere else to go. Phillies – 2/$28m with a 3rd year option for $10m with a $2m buyout.

1. If the Phillies get Kyle Tucker, they will be out on Schwarber and vice versa ↩︎