The Detroit Tigers are in a pickle. They are currently a contender considering they were maybe the best team in baseball last year until a late season collapse had them settle for a Wild Card. They then beat the Guardians and took the Mariners to the limit. However, they needed every bit of their back-to-back Cy Young winning, best pitcher on the planet, ace Tarik Subal to do it. Skubal has 1 year of team control left before he becomes a free agent at 30 years old next offseason. With Scott Boras as his agent, he is looking to become the highest paid pitcher-only1 in baseball history. The Tigers have indicated that they can’t/won’t do that. Unless they want to lose out on a great prospect haul and lose him for nothing, they NEED to trade him.
Comparables
What kind of trade are we looking for here? Well, it probably will not be the biggest of all time. Skubal is a one-man difference maker and ace of aces, but he is also a likely short-term rental who will make between $20m and $25m this season in arbitration. He will also not have the market you would think because of his enormous future price tag that can only be afforded by a select few. However, even those teams will want to work out an extension with him right away or they will be reluctant to trade their system for just the one year.
Last year Garrett Crochet was traded for two top 50ish prospects in catcher Kyle Teel and OF Braden Montgomery. Chicago also received two mid level Boston prospects in the deal. While Crochet had been great that year, he also came with injury red flags and 2 years of control. Another big trade last year was Kyle Tucker going from the Astros to the Cubs in exchange for top 100 prospect Cam Smith and solid regular Isaac Paredes.2 Kyle Tucker is no Tarik Skubal, but he isn’t far behind either. With Crochet getting considerably more than Tucker, it goes to show how much that extra year of control is worth.
Maybe the best comparable is Juan Soto going to the Yankees the year before. Now Soto IS in Skubal territory in terms of talent and cachet. For Soto (and Trent Grisham), the Yankees gave up high upside pitcher Michael King who still had 2 years of control left, catcher Kyle Higashioka, top-100 pitching prospect Drew Thorpe, and two young pitchers with upside, Jhony Brito and Randy Vasquez. Soto also came with the built in uncertainty of super-agent Scott Boras.
So, what kind of haul will the Tigers need to trade Skubal? If I am them, I am looking for two things: a high-end prospect and a controllable major league regular with all-star upside, preferably a pitcher.
Who is going to bid on him? Well, the big guns for one. The triumvirate of the Mets, Yankees, and Dodgers will all be in on the bidding as they will be the guys likely to sign him next year. A level below them are the teams that are looking to go for it and think they are a pitcher away. This could mean the Braves, Reds, Phillies, or Cubs. A few other teams like the Giants and Diamondbacks just don’t have the goods to pull off a trade. Let’s cook up some deals…
Trade Packages
Two things to know going in, the Tigers have all of the position prospects and will focus on pitching. Also, any potential deal will probably come with a few down the line prospects as well.
Phillies – The Phillies are always in on everyone, especially Boras guys. The problem is that they are up against the wall salary-wise and really want to bridge the gap from the current generation to the next generation. How would a trade like this work? You start with Andrew Painter and go from there. Painter is a Top-25 level prospect who didn’t look good last year coming back from TJ surgery. The Tigers would probably ask for recent draft pick Gage Wood as well. That’s probably top end of what the Phillies would consider, but only with assurances of a new contract. They are not going to punt that kind of pitching upside and risk another dark age. Skubal for the next 5 years is the kind of guy you trade the farm for, so they would need to work an extension ahead of time.
Braves – The Braves are not going to be the team that signs Skubal to a long-term deal, they just don’t do that kind of thing unless it is for a discount. However, it is possible that they take the plunge to give their current core the best possible chance it has for another title. It would take recent draftee and top 100 prospect Cam Caminiti plus a controllable good starter like Spencer Schwellenbach.
Reds – The Reds are trying to do something based on their interest in Kyle Schwarber. However, they do not have the cash to throw at Schwarber, let alone Skubal. Still, upgrading their pitching staff for a 1 year run could be on the table. Would top 100 pitcher Rhett Lowder and Andrew Abbott get the job done? If you were to compare these two to the two prospects from the Phillies, they would probably be 2nd and 3rd of the 4.
Cubs – Would the Cubs go all in again on a star trade they have no hope to resign? It’s possible considering the upside and youth of their lineup combines with a need for starting pitching. They do not have someone you would call an ace of the staff and putting Skubal at the top would make everyone else fit their role a lot better. Do they have the prospects? Maybe. Jaxon Wiggins is a Top-100 type who is close to MLB ready. Who is the ML ready guy they trade? Cade Horton? That would completely eliminate all of their young pitching. It might get the trade done, but that is a lot of future for the Cubs to mortgage for one season of Skubal.
Yankees – NY has a monster pitching prospect named Carlos Lagrange. I don’t mean monster in terms of top prospect, I mean he is 6’7, 250 pounds and can hit 102. Lagrange is a Top 100 guy and would need to come with Cam Schlitter as well. Obviously the Yankees are a team that could lock him up, even with recent trouble doing the same with Soto.
Dodgers – The only thing limiting the Dodgers is roster spots. They have Yamamoto, Snell, Glasnow, Ohtani, Emmit Sheehan, and Roki Sasaki as 6 for their 5 man unit. If I am the Dodgers, I am offering Sasaki straight up for Skubal and seeing if the Tigers bite. The Dodgers have any number of top 100 prospects to throw in the deal too, but top 100 lefty Jackson Ferris would probably clinch it. Holy hell, what a rotation that would be.
Mets – The Mets are in an interesting position of having the funds, the prospects, and the need for Skubal, but might not have the stomach for it. They have built a great farm system that is headlined by Nolan McLean who crushed it upon getting called up last year. If I am the Tigers, he is the ask in a 1 for 1 trade. I doubt the Mets want to let their guy go though. There is Jonah Tong who is a Top 50 guy, but like Painter, some of the shine might be off. Would the Tigers go for both Tong and fellow rookie pitcher Brandon Sproat? Would the Mets? Then there is Kodai Senga who might be the worst good pitcher there is. The Mets would love to upgrade his spot in the rotation by fitting Skubal next to McLean. Would Senga and Tong get it done? I think that gets beat by any number of possible trades above. It’s a tough spot.
Prediction
Which package above would you rather have if you are the Tigers? If I am ranking it, the Mets with McLean and the Dodgers with Sasaki are 1a and 1b. Both are controllable for 6 more years and have legit ace upside. The difference is that the Mets absolutely need a front line starter and the Dodgers do not. The Mets and Dodgers have to be considered the favorites with the Dodgers having the ability to top any Mets deal that isn’t for McLean… if that’s where the Mets want to go.
Prospect rankings courtesy of MLB Pipeline
Philly Front Office 
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