The Phillies and Kyle Schwarber in agreement on a 5/$150m contract. That’s bonkers. Let’s break down what it all means.
The Contract
Kyle Schwarber is a 33-year-old, DH only, but is also one of the preeminent power threats in all of baseball. There is very little precedent for someone in his situation getting a contract anywhere near this. Brent Rooker? Marcell Ozuna? 2022 Kyle Schwarber? None of them were coming off a 56 HR, MVP runner up season before signing their next contract. Do you know who was? David Ortiz 20 years ago. Ortiz signed for 4/$52m at age 32 and fresh off a runner up MVP finish. With baseball inflation1, that comes to 4/$100m. Schwarber left that in the dust.
How did this happen? Well, for some reason teams who usually don’t spend were in on Schwarber. While I was busy worrying about the Mets, it ended up being the Pirates who drove up his price. They apparently offered 4/$120m for his services. Once the price went that high, then the Phillies had to give a 5th year apparently. $30m per year is a TON for a guy who does not have a position.
Since the signing has not been made official yet, let’s hope there is some deferred money involved here to lower the AAV for tax purposes. That is not the Phillies style, but it could be in this offseason of tight purse strings.
The Phillies
Do you know how many 20+ HR hitters the Phillies had last year? Besides Schwarber, only Bryce Harper had more than 18. The team as a whole had 212, so losing more than a quarter of that total would have been devastating. I had “power” as the #2 concern for the Phillies whole offseason. Looks like the Phillies had it #1.
The problem with giving Kyle Schwarber $30m per year is that we now only have around $16m to spend on the rest of the roster. Last offseason, the Phillies topped off spending at the final tax threshold. With Kyle coming back but before any trades, the Phillies are sitting at around $288m in tax payroll. The tax line is $304m. We still need a catcher, CF, LF, and a bullpen arm. YIKES! As much as I like Schwarber, I would have liked that money to be used on a position player.
Of course, there is a chance that the team busts past that final tax line. If they do, all expenditures will be it with a 110% tax, so basically another dollar for every dollar spent. This is not impossible for the right player. The Phillies were ready to give Yoshinobu Yamamoto $300m a few years back and could very well consider blowing past the tax line for a difference maker, especially one from Japan.
There is also the chance that the Phillies make some trades. Alec Bohm, Bryson Stott, and Brandon Marsh are all in arbitration and set to earn around $22m between them. Matt Strahm and Jose Alvarado are making around $17m together. Then there is the dynamic duo of Taijuan Walker and Nick Castellanos making $38m. Any of these guys could be traded to make room.
Speaking of Taijuan and Nick, they are warnings about signing players for too long. Walker was set to be our 4th/5th starter but still cost 4/$72m. Even at his best, Walker is an average pitcher who should never have seen anywhere close to that much money. The Phillies could have gone with a stopgap instead. As for Castellanos, he was coming off a great season, but his 5th year is now one less player we can add this year. Hopefully that’s not Kyle Schwarber’s fate in 2030.
What’s Next?
Buried in the Schwarber news was a contract extension for Manager Rob Thomson. It is a one year pact which is standard fare for managers in their last year. The Phillies did not want him to be a lame duck. I am no fan of Topper, but he seems to at least be an okay regular season manager. As for in game decisions, not so much. The Phillies have been rumored to pursue their GM’s dad, Don Mattingly for the position of bench coach who would handle more of the everyday, in-game affairs.
If this theme of running it back holds true, next on the agenda is catcher, JT Realmuto. The Phillies simply have no other options for the position. In Philadelphia, JT gets to play damn near everyday and compete for a World Series. There is no other place where he will get that opportunity. It is rumored that he is seeking a 2-year deal, which I predict will be in the $14m per season range. Here is hoping it is closer to $10m!
From there, the budget will be mostly shot, but the trade and Japanese markets will still interest the Phillies.
All salary info courtesy of Spotrac.
- The average salary has increased from $2.7m to $5.2m ↩︎
Philly Front Office 
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