Philly Front Office

[UPDATE: Shortly after this was posted, the Baltimore Orioles signed Pet Alonso to a 5/$155m contract]

The Phillies made a big move yesterday in bringing back Kyle Schwarber on a 5/$150m contract. I legitimately thought the Mets and owner Steve Cohen would try to do to the Phillies with Schwarber what they did to the Yankees with Juan Soto last year, a show of financial dominance. They didn’t. From the reports out there, they didn’t even make a true offer. Then I started thinking about how they weren’t in on Dylan Cease either (not that they should have been, don’t get me wrong). What’s going on in Queens? I have spent way too much time thinking about the Mets, so let’s take a look at probably the most fascinating team of the offseason.

[Editor’s Note: This was supposed to be a look around the whole division, but I just kept writing about the Mets. I feel very gross.]

Phillies Re-Sign Kyle Schwarber

Front Office

The Mets front office is made up of a cartoonish good angel/bad angel dichotomy. On one shoulder is the owner who is in the uncommon position of not only being a multi-multi-billionaire but also a Mets fan. Most billionaires buy a team either as a good investment or as a status symbol in their city. For Steve Cohen, this is a grown man living out a childhood fantasy with the financial ability to do whatever he wants. He isn’t though. Why? Because of who is on the other shoulder, GM David Stearns.

With the Soto deal, everyone was on notice that Cohen can and will do whatever he wants. For some reason “whatever he wants” has been working the margins, building a farm system, and being financially prudent under the frugal stewardship of David Stearns. I’m not saying this is wrong, just VERY unexpected. Instead of being the Dodgers who both develop and splurge, the Mets are simply choosing not to flex their financial might.

The Mets have made two big deals so far. The first was swapping Brandon Nimmo for Marcus Simien. This can be seen as a salary swap of two overpaid guys on the downward slope of their careers. Simien costs more in a shorter term but will still provide solid defense (it also got my arch nemetsis the hell away from me. The other move was bringing in Devin Williams, Stearns’s old buddy from Milwaukee. The thought of teaming Williams with Edwin Diaz had Mets fans feeling good. Then Diaz signed with the Dodgers and a lot of things became clear. The Mets are not going to overpay just to get their guy. Apparently, they offered 3/$66m with deferrals, while the Dodgers offered 3/$69m without deferrals. Really??? Why have Steve Cohen’s wallet if you are worried about the change in his couch?

Starting Pitching

Stearns is known for not wanting to go more than a couple years with starting pitchers, as he’s wary of the back end of the deals. That’s going to be a problem, just like it was last season. In 2025, the Mets completely ran out of bullets in the rotation. Kodai Senga blew up, David Peterson’s 2nd half was atrocious, Tyler Megill, Sean Manea, Griffin Canning, and Frankie Montas were all hurt, and it left 3 rookies in the rotation by the end of the year with converted reliever Clay Holmes. You can say that’s bad luck, and it was, but the Mets also didn’t go out and exactly fortify their rotation before the season. They shopped at Target for Canning, Montas, and Holmes instead of going to any high-end stores (I still can’t believe they didn’t go after Corbin Burnes, though he got hurt too). Is the plan really to do that again this season?

McLean looks like he is going to be giving us problems for a long time and will probably be the Opening Day Starter. As for the other two rookies, Jonah Tong and Brandon Sproat, the Mets would probably like them to start the year in AAA, but might not have a choice. Who else will be in the rotation? Clay Holmes is probably the #2 right now, but he is a time bomb. He went from pitching around 60 innings per season to 165 last year as a 32-year-old (We’ll get to this with Michael King in a minute). Rumor has it that they are looking to trade David Peterson. If he stays, he’s #3. Manea? Senga? That’s the same recipe that poisoned them last year. They objectively need to make some moves for front line pitching.

The top pitchers out there are Ranger Suarez (please no), Framber Valdez, Tatsuya Imai, Michael King, and Zac Gallen. The Mets could easily land two of them and turn their weakness into a strength, but would Stearns do that? Suarez and Valdez are going to be looking for 5-7 year deals in the $150m to $210m range. Does that mean the Mets will simply not consider them based on principle? Valdez is the most durable of the bunch while Ranger probably looks the best when he’s on. Hell, I’m happy if they pass on them, but it would probably be a mistake. King looks great at times, but he is also a converted reliever who went from 50 innings to 100 to 175 in 3 seasons and it landed him on the IL multiple times last year. He has to be the betting favorite to be the guy the Mets get because he will cost less and looks good on paper. That arm is very risky though. I’m not saying they shouldn’t sign him, I’m saying they shouldn’t sign ONLY him. McLean and a healthy King are a formidable 1-2, but one is a rookie (and presumably on an innings limit) and the other is an IL trip waiting to happen. Throw in the reliable Gallen or the question mark Imai and they might have something.

Let’s address the Tarik Skubal elephant in the room while we are here. Skubal is the best pitcher in baseball and wants to become the highest paid pitcher ever. The Tigers are probably 60/40 going to deal him and the 29-year-old will be pricey even as a 1-year rental. The Tigers will ask for Nolan McLean and the Mets will offer Tong and Senga/Peterson. If they can get the deal done without McLean, it is a no brainer. As for an extension, the Mets should be the team to offer Skubal record setting pitcher money, but will they? Would Stearns? If I didn’t hate them so much, I would love to see this play out.

Let’s Trade Tarik Skubal

The Lineup

The rotation isn’t the only issue. They are set in right with Soto, SS with Lindor, 2B with Simien, catcher with Francisco Alvarez, and probably more of the Baty/Vientos combo at 3rd. But with Pete Alonso in the wind, there are glaring holes at first base and DH as well as left and center. Kyle Schwarber would have looked real good batting behind Juan Soto. Just like with pitching, the Mets could be in on anyone: Kyle Tucker to play left (really right, but you get me), Cody Bellinger to play center, and Eugenio Suarez / Munetaka Murakami for 1B/DH. Hell, they could punt Baty and bring in Alex Bregman to play 3rd if they wanted to. They could do anything, but, again, will they?

The Mets do have a few options in the minors. If Kyle Tucker isn’t even considered for the outfield, it is because of Carson Benge, a consensus Top 25 prospect, might already be penciled into that spot. The same could be true with Jett Williams in CF. Would they want to block either with expensive signings? They seem like reason enough to have gone after Schwarber. I understand saving money and building around young guys, but the inherent savings that comes with starting rookies opens the door and damn near necessitates spending elsewhere. Are the Mets going to do that?

Budget

I am by no means claiming the Mets are cheap. Last year they spent $341m with a tax bill of an additional $86m. The previous 3 years they had the highest payroll in the sport. They spend. This year including arbitration estimates they are sitting at $274m. They have the room and the need to spend. The question is whether they want to spend on space fillers or difference makers. Last year after Soto, they spent on space fillers. I can’t help but wonder if they do the same again. After all, they already downgraded from Edwin Diaz to Devin Williams. Could they do the same with Pete Alonso? We’ll see.

The Mets are the boogieman right now. We fear what they could do, but it also might just be a story to scare everyone.