Philly Front Office

[UPDATE: Added JT. Subtracted my enthusiasm.]

The Phillies are right up against their paywall already with the resigning of Kyle Schwarber and the return of JT Realmuto. That being said, we all know that Nick Castellanos and Taijuan Walker are in the last years of their deals and thus will be coming off the books in 2027 (assuming there is baseball in 2027). Let’s take a look at next year’s payroll to see how that should affect 2026 and what’s in store for 2027.

Guaranteed Contracts

This is a bit early considering the offseason isn’t done yet, so I will update as needed. With JT Realmuto, the Phillies have 8 players under contract for next year so far:

(these are luxury tax figures, not actual cash)

• Zack Wheeler – $42m
• Kyle Schwarber – $30m
• Trea Turner – $27.25m
• Bryce Harper – $25.25m
• Aaron Nola – $24.5m
• JT Realmuto – $15m
• Brad Keller – $11m
• Cristopher Sanchez – $5.5m

That comes to $180.5m. Considering that is 3/5 of a rotation, the current NL batting champion, and 2 guys chasing their 400th HRs in 2027, that’s not so bad.

The Value of Phillies Under Contract

Pre-Arbitration

Of course, those 7 above aren’t the only guys pre-destined to be on the Phillies next year. There are plenty of younger guys who aren’t even up for arbitration yet and will be making the league minimum unless they get some kind of early extension. This list also includes rookies who could make their debut at some point this season or make the team out of Spring Training next year.

• Andrew Painter
• Otto Kemp
• Justin Crawford
• Aiden Miller
• Weston Wilson
• Max Lazar
• Seth Johnson
• Moises Chace
• Jean Cabrera
• Alex McFarlane
• Gabriel Rincones
• Gage Wood
• Gabe Craig
• Dante Nori
• Keaton Anthony
• Jonathan Bowlan
• Kyle Backhus

All of these guys will be making somewhere around $850,000 in salary with the big club. In this group you likely have a rotation piece in painter, starting OF in Crawford, and a starting infielder in Aiden Miller. Lazar, Johnson, McFarlane, and Craig will likely be in the bullpen. Cabrera and Wood could see themselves in the rotation with good 2026s. Chace could be either depending on how his TJ recovery goes this season.

Phillies Top Prospects Report: End of Season

Arbitration

There are also a few players who will be in various levels of arbitration control. Here they are with early estimates of their salaries:

• Bryson Stott – $9m
• Brandon Marsh – $9m
• Rafael Marchan – $2m
• Garrett Stubbs – $2m
• Johan Rojas – $2m
• Orion Kerkering – $2m
• Tanner Banks – $3m
• Jhoan Duran – $12m

All tolled, that comes to $41m. While most of these numbers are palatable, paying $9m for Brandon Marsh is not, with Bryson Stott close behind. While Marsh is at least on semi-roster limbo right now, both could be in the 2026 Alec Bohm spot next year. For the purpose of this exercise, I’ll keep Marsh, but his non-guaranteed $9m is under the guillotine.

2027 Openings and Our Free Agents

I am banking on at least enough performance from everyone above to stay on the roster. This gives us 4/5s of a rotation but a hole in CF (as always). How much do we have to spend?

• $180.5m for guaranteed contracts
• $41m for arbitration
• $6m for 7 Pre-Arbs
• $22m for benefits and minor league salary

That means $249.5m. Assuming similar payroll, that means around $65m to spend. That’s what this offseason would have been like without Castellanos and Walker clogging things up.

One thing to consider, this will likely be Zack Wheeler’s final season. If we are going to fill that last rotation spot with someone, this would be the time to make it good. Conveniently, our one big free agent this year is Jesus Luzardo. Is he the guy? It’s possible. It is also possible that we spend on Tatsuya Imai this offseason and make this a moot point. The Phillies have several other free agents who will likely not be back for one reason or another: Edmundo Sosa, Jose Alvarado, and Alec Bohm.

Munetaka Murakami, Kazuma Okamoto, and the Rest of the Japanese Stars Coming to MLB

2027 Free Agents

What 2027 lacks in hitters, it makes up for in pitching:

• Outfield
  • Seiya Suzuki
  • Ramon Laureano
  • Trent Grisham
  • Ian Happ
  • Taylor Ward
  • Randy Arozarena
• Infield
  • Jonathan India
  • Jazz Chisholm
  • JP Crawford
  • Gleyber Torres
• Starters
  • Tarik Skubal
  • Freddy Peralta
  • Jesus Luzardo
  • Brandon Woodruff
  • Chris Sale
  • Shane Bieber
  • Nick Pivetta (no)
  • Corbin Burnes…maybe
• Releivers
  • Andres Munoz
  • Adrian Morejon
  • Kolby Allard
  • Joe Jimenez
  • David Bednar

MLB Free Agency Predictions

Outlook for 2026 and 2027

I did this exercise to try to get a longer view at what the Phillies are thinking this season. Aiden Miller is going to take over for one of Bryson Stott or Alec Bohm at some point. Hell, it is possible that he takes over for Turner who fills our CF problem, but I am not going to bank on it. That could mean a splurge at 3B this season and Miller taking Stott’s job down the line. If Stott is gone in 2027, that would free up $9m from our estimate.

The rotation this year could be “good enough” not to add an arm and instead wait until next year when Skubal becomes a legit target. I don’t think we should trade off our cheap top prospects for him, but signing him to the biggest pitching contract ever¹ is certainly doable considering we have the cash. Only a notch or two lower is Luzardo and Peralta. Unless Aaron Nola magically reinvents himself, we are probably going to need someone even if Painter is legit and Wood is ready.

Jhoan Duran will be in his final year of control with the Phillies in 2027 barring an extension. He needs a setup man NOW let alone next year. Munuz, Morejon, and Bednar will be looking to be closers, but money talks. Hopefully one of the Phillies younger guys breaks out, but you can never have too many good bullpen arms.

As for the outfield, this is why I wanted Kyle Tucker so bad. Teams lock up their good outfielders to early extensions because they are an endangered species. This problem is not going away. Looking to the trade market for a legitimate LF bat needs to be on the table. Just like the Stott situation, the addition of an every day corner OF would spell the end for Brandon Marsh, freeing up another $9m from our estimate.

For anyone worried about the future of the Phillies, the current regime has done a surprisingly good job of anchoring the roster with stars while giving us a lot of future flexibility. Now we just have to see how the rest of this offseason goes. Oh yeah, plus all of next season!

All salary numbers courtesy of Spotrac. Free Agent list from MLB Trade Rumors.

1. I don’t know what that is yet. Zack Wheeler makes $42m per season while Gerrit Cole signed for 9/$324 and Yoshinobu Yamamoto signed for 12/$325m. How does 8/$360m sound? ↩︎