Philly Front Office

To say I have been wrong so far in free agency has been an understatement…NO NO, DON’T LEAVE! The logic and comparisons for deals were sound, I swear, but things haven’t worked out. The Japanese players especially threw everyone for a loop. Give me another shot! Here is a recap of who went where and a re-look at where the top free agents might end up signing.

One thing to note, there was just some big news in terms of baseball finances. Main Street Sports, the team that was Diamond Sports just had its contracts terminated with several teams due to lack of payment. The Braves, Reds, Tigers, Royals, Angels, Marlins, Brewers, Cardinals and Rays just had one of their revenue streams taken from them. It is something to have in mind.

MLB Free Agency Predictions

Signed

• Kyle Schwarber
  • 5/$150m to the Phillies
  • Biggest DH deal ever, by a LOT
• Pete Alonso
  • 5/$155m to the Orioles
  • Looks like he had no desire to stay with the Mets who are now missing a ton of power
• Dylan Cease
  • 7/$210m to the Blue Jays
  • Metrics say Cease was amazing, the results say he was average. A big bet on science for the AL Pennant winners
• Michael King
  • 3/$75m to the Padres
  • Flirted with the east coast before going back to Xanadu
• Edwin Diaz
  • 3/$69m to the Dodgers
  • Got the hell out of Queens as soon as he could
• Robert Suarez
  • 3/$45m to the Braves
  • I was taught that if you don’t have anything nice to say, you shouldn’t say anything at all.
• Devin Williams
  • 3/$51m to the Mets
  • For awhile it looked like Williams might be the setup man in a crazy good Mets bullpen, instead he’s the closer
• Merrill Kelly
  • 2/$40m to the Diamondbacks
  • A lot to pay for a 37 year old, but still a solid starter
• Jorge Polanco
  • 2/$40m to the Mets
  • The regularly hurt Polanco is going to attempt to replace Pete Alonso at 1st after a rebound season last year.
• Ryan O’Hearn
  • $2/$29m to the Pirates
  • They were not competitive with Kyle Schwarber but needed to spend money somehow
• Munetaka Murakami
  • 2/$34m to the White Sox
  • Shockingly low deal after teams got spooked by his inability to hit velocity
• Kazuma Okamoto
  • 4/$60m to the Blue Jays
  • The move that likely kicked Bichette out the door
• Tatsuya Imai
  • 3/$54m to the Astros
  • Why the hell did the Phillies let this happen?

An Open Letter to the Phillies

Top Ten Remaining FAs

1. Kyle Tucker
   • I initially had him going to the Phillies at 10/$425m but that was probably more wishful thinking than anything. The more he stays on the market, the more it seems like the Dodgers will swoop in and sign him to some heavily deferred monster deal. The Mets should be in on him but aren’t. The Yankees are heavily focused on bringing back Bellinger.
   • Prediction: Let’s get weird. Tucker to the Dodgers for 8/$340m but with 2/$100m in the first two years followed by a player option for the remaining 6/$240m. All of it has deferrals.
2. Alex Bregman
   • I didn’t understand the love or market for Bregman last year that led him to sign a very strange contract with the Red Sox and I don’t get it now. He is almost 32 and had a good but not great season with Boston.
   • Prediction: I am sticking with 4/$140m and the Dodgers as my prediction. Deferrals and Opt-Outs after each season.
3. Bo Bichette
   • It seemed clear as day that he would go back to the Blue Jays, but I predicted he would sign with the Giants for 11/$301m anyway. Toronto seems to have moved on. If that amount of money and years were on the table somewhere, he would have signed by now. Now the word is that he is headed to Philly for an in person meeting on Monday. My hopes are WAY up.
   • Prediction: 7/$210m with the Phillies. That puts him in line with the vets on this team in terms of end of contract.
4. Framber Valdez
   • I haven’t heard a peep out of his market. There were Cubs rumors to start, but they just traded for Edward Cabrera from the Marlins. The Mets and Giants still need pitching, but neither seem likely to go after a 32-year-old who is trending downward.
   • Prediction: Still sticking with the Mets but lowering the years and raising the AAV. 3/$110m
5. Cody Bellinger
   • Everyone believes he is going back to the Yankees even if he has turned them down so far. He wants 7 years and $35m+. That’s crazy talk. I had him at 4/$140m or about $35 AAV. Tack on one more?
   • Prediction: Yankees, 5/$175m. Goddamn, that does seem crazy for Bellinger.
6. Ranger Suarez
   • Rumor has him going to the Mets and I can both see that and cry over it. Even if it damages my soul to its core, he is probably perfect for them. He is someone who doesn’t rattled, is playoff tested, and would be a feather in Cohen’s hat. I originally had him going to Toronto, which would have been nice for Phillies fans, but that ship sailed with Dylan Cease.
   • Prediction: Sticking with 6/$150m but moving it to San Fran because I just can’t live in a world where he is wearing blue and orange.
7. JT Realmuto
   • Everyone has only been looking at the catcher market from the Phillies side, seeing JT as the only option. However, what about from his side? What other contender would offer JT a starting job? Some teams like the Padres, Rangers, and Rays aren’t going to pay him. Maybe the Yankees? They love old heads who might be washed.
   • Prediction: Some team like the Cincy, Tampa, or Pittsburgh is going to see him as a bargain once his market falls out. I’ll say Rays 1/$10m
8. Eugenio Suarez
   • Suarez is one of the premier mashers in MLB with 49 HRs last year split between Arizona and Seattle. He has serious red flags though like striking out about 4x more than he walks, not playing third base well, being nearly 35, and inconsistency. He is the bargain (but still expensive) version of Kyle Schwarber and Pete Alonso. He made $15m last year and will want a raise.
   • Prediction: Someone would have to be really in need of power to think they can put Suarez at 3rd base moving forward. Who is that desperate? Well, the Reds just struck out on Schwarber and have an opening at DH. Christian Walker is a reasonable comp from last year considering he got 3/$60m as a less powerful but younger and better first baseman. Suarez to the Reds at 2/$45m with a 3rd year option for $15m with a $5m buyout.
9. Zac Gallen
   • Gallen is 30 years old and probably missed a huge payday by 1 season. Now instead of 5 out of 6 seasons with a high 2 to mid 3 ERA, he hits free agency coming off an abysmal 4.85 ERA season with a big uptick in HRs and his K% going the wrong way. Instead of an Aaron Nola type deal, he is going to see something along the lines of a Marcus Stroman deal in the low $20ms. He rejected his qualifying offer, so he may come with draft pick penalties.
   • Prediction: The Orioles are in need of pitching desperately and he might just be the kind of high upside bargain they need at 3/$72m
10. Harrison Bader
    • Bader is the only true CF on the market. That’s a good position to be in. Even though his run with the Phillies was buttressed by a huge spike in balls just missing gloves, he still offers consistent elite CF defense.
    • Prediction: 3/$36m still seems right for the breakout Bader, just not from the Phillies. Who else needs a CF? Depending on what happens with the Kyle Tucker, the Dodgers could be the team. Tommy Edman was bad last year but is at least better against lefties as a switch hitter. Bader is a righty, but was exponentially better against righties last season. At the very least he would be a great defensive replacement when they need him. This is a rich get richer situation.