Philly Front Office

I have been pretty upset with how the Phillies, and their top decision maker Dave Dombrowski, have approached the offseason. While the team was already pretty stacked with talent, the mostly run-it-back approach has seemed uncreative and more interested with the status quo than competing with the Dodgers. Is that fair? It’s easy to get mad, but much harder to pinpoint realistic solutions. I want to go through the moves and grade them to see if I am being fair or just emotional, then see if I can do better without the benefit of hindsight…

[Keep in mind that the Phillies have an unofficial budget of approximately $315m. We might not like it, but we can’t change it]

November 6, 2025 – Phillies pick up the $9m option on Jose Alvarado: This seems 50/50 to me. The guy started the year great and back to his 2023 form, then he was busted for PEDs and those good results were revealed as a mirage. Take away those steroid infused early results and his 2025 was a lot like his 2024. Why was he worth $9m again? For a team on a budget, this seemed like an unnecessary expenditure. The reasoning was that there was a surplus of lefties in the pen and Strahm was the one who would be leaving. Grade: D

Dave Dombrowski and His 1-Year Contracts

December 9th, 2025 – Kyle Schwarber resigns for 5/$150m: Schwarber’s deal is the biggest ever given to a fulltime DH. However, this was the market. Had they offered any less, he would probably be in Baltimore and Pete Alonso would be splitting 1B/DH duties with Bryce Harper for the next 5 years instead. For anyone who thinks we should have moved on, Kyle Tucker and Bo Bichette were not realistic options considering what they eventually signed for. Personally, I’ll take Schwarber over Alonso all day even if the former doesn’t have a defensive position. Grade: A

December 15, 2025 – Adolis Garcia signs for 1/$10m: Garcia was eligible for Arbitration in 2026 with the Rangers. They cut him instead of paying an estimated $13m. 3 weeks later he was a Phillies. As nice as it was to break up the whitewash a little bit and see some defense in right field, we all quickly realized that we hadn’t seen Garcia since he was mashing in the 2023 playoffs. He hasn’t hit since. That’s not my problem with this move at all. The problem was jumping the outfield market. Was anyone dying to give him $10m? Then there is the Nick Castellanos of it all. The Phillies publicly said he was not coming back to the team. None of us really know what the story is here, but to give benefit of the doubt, let’s assume whatever happened was unforgivable. This is still dedicating $30m for bad hitting in right. Signing Garcia forced Justin Crawford to center and took the Phillies completely out of the outfield market. Grade: C-. While it’s good Crawford gets to play, he should probably be in right rather than CF.

December 17, 2025 – Brad Keller signs for 2/$22m: Fantastic deal. No notes. Right guy at the right price. Grade: A.

December 19, 2025 – Matt Strahm traded for Jonathan Bowlan: Maybe Bowlan is somewhat interesting and cheap, but this was a salary dump, plain and simple. I’m fine with that, in theory. Strahm did not have a great season last year and there is a decent chance he is falling apart. The problem is that the same can be said for Jose Alvarado. If you are going to get rid of one for potentially losing it, then you should probably get rid of both. JAlen Beeks, Andrew Chafin, and Danny Coulombe are all still out there and arguably better lefty options than Strahm or Alvarado. Caleb Ferguson signed for 1/$4.5m while Hoby Milner got 1/$3.75m. If every dollar counts, then why keep Alvarado for $9m and trade Strahm and his $7.5m? Grade: C.

January 8, 2026 – Arbitration Signing Day: I really like how the Phillies handle their arbitration business, rarely ever actually getting to a hearing. They even ended up saving a few dollars from projections this year. The thing with arbitration deals though, they are not guaranteed until you sign the contracts. $11m for Luzardo? Great. $7.5m for Jhoan Duran? Obvi! $10.2m for Alec Bohm? [record scratch] …really? Now I am not saying they should have stuck to their guns and gone to a hearing with him, but they could have non-tendered him. Maybe that would sacrifice value, but what is he bringing to the table for that $10.2m? No power, no speed, no defense, and a bad attitude isn’t exactly a $10m combination. For all those reasons he isn’t exactly easy to trade for value either. I would have non-tendered him. Grade: B.

January 16, 2026 – JT Realmuto signs for 3/$45m + incentives: Yes, the Phillies needed a catcher. The farm is barren and the free agent/trade markets weren’t great. However, overpaying for need is rarely the smart play. Word was that no one was offering Realmuto 3 years, no one was offering him $15m, and no real contenders had an opening. What the hell is that? Part of the problem this season was that because Taijuan Walker and Nick Castellanos signed deals that were 1 year too long, we don’t have $38m extra to spend. Why let history repeat itself? This move reeked of panic considering it came out just 2 hours after the Bo Bichette news. The worst part is that he’s not any good! His bat has been deteriorating and was down right awful last year. At 35, that bat ain’t coming back. He doesn’t walk, strikes out a lot, and has no power. What are we doing here? If we wanted a defensive catcher, one would have been easy to find for a fraction of the price. Grade: F. I just find this deal so insulting on so many levels.

What a Nightmare

My Way

If I had my way (no Alvarado, no Garcia, no Bohm, and no Realmuto), the Phillies would have around $44m more to spend right now. Granted we would have had even more melt downs from the fanbase and holes in the outfield, 3B, RP, and C, but we would also have around $47m to spend. What could we do with that money?

• Sign Kazuma Okamoto for 4/$68m to play 3rd base this year and RF going forward: We don’t know the full story with what happened to all of the Japanese guys this offseason, but all of them signed well below their expected markets. Maybe he never wanted to go to Philly, but the possibility of breaking into the Japanese market (Where Brandon Marsh already has a surprising following) would be worth the extra dollars. The move to right field the next season allows the team to either move on from Brandon Marsh or platoon him with Bader while allowing Aiden Miller to take 3rd. At $17m AAV, we still have $30m to spend.
• Sign Harrison Bader for the same 2/$20.5m he got from the Giants. I have heard the negatives about him, that his Phillies surge was helped by a completely unsustainable hot streak and that he had never hit so well in his career. But he is also notorious for being an irrationally confident and positive clubhouse guy who has no idea how to NOT try hard. That is the personality this team has lacked since the World Series in 2022. This brings us to around $20m to spend.
• Sign 1 of the relievers above for $4m: I don’t care which one. We need another lefty, so get another lefty. People have a good memory of the “Strike 1, Strike 2, Good Luck” Alvarado from a few years ago, but he is gone. Instead, we have the hittable wildman that won’t be dependable when we need him. Any of the other lefties works for me to deal with a threat. We are going to end up grabbing another reliever at the deadline anyway. $16m left to spend.
• Trade Nick Castellanos AND Taijuan Walker: I understand that trading Nick has proved difficult, but someone will be willing to spend something like $3m on him if the Phillies grab the rest. They are probably still trying to get someone to take on more than that. As for Walker, in the aftermath of the Wheeler injury, the team expects him to start the year in the rotation behind Sanchez, Luzardo, Nola, and Painter. Considering he proved himself to be a capable starter last year, getting someone to take him for half his salary isn’t crazy. These two deals add $12m to our total of now $28m.
• Re-sign Ranger Suarez OR sign Tatsuya Imai: Obviously, you aren’t trading Walker without one of these deals, but I wanted to finish strong here. Ranger signed in Boston for 5/$130m ($26m AAV) while Imai took 3/$54m ($18m AAV) from Houston. When Wheeler returns that seems like we will have the luxury of 6 more than competent starters, except that’s not likely. First, Nola and Wheeler bring their own uncertainty due to injury and possible ineffectiveness. Second, Painter will be a rookie. While his range of outcomes are all over, one thing we can count on is that he will be somewhat limited in innings. One of the hidden positives from his 2025 was getting to 118 innings. That means his 2026 should top out at around 150 health permitting. Getting him coming out of the bullpen down the stretch would probably be awesome. As we saw last year, reinforcements either for the rotation (Phillies) or coming out of the rotation (Dodgers) can be incredibly helpful. Signing either would also give the team insurance in case Luzardo left in the offseason. If we resigned Ranger, everyone would be happy and there would be $2m left. If we signed Imai instead, there would be $10m left to spend.
• Sign JT for 2/$20m or Victo Caratini for /$14m: If not the Phillies, then who for JT? Maybe he gets a 1/$12m deal from the Rays or 2/$20 from someone else, but no one was giving him 3/$45m. If he wants to stay at a reasonable deal and try to win a World Series, great. If not, honestly, it would not be a huge loss. Depending on what starting pitcher we signed above, we are either slightly over budget or under.

JT Realmuto, the Same Mistake

So that’s my offseason. In the end, the only difference is I waited out the market while Dave dove in headfirst. I tried not to rely on hindsight, just wait for moves to come to me instead of chasing them. I love that the team went after Bo Bichette, but they had no backup plan. Considering the deal he signed, he was never coming to the Phillies and it crushed our offseason. So, would you rather have Adolis Garcia in right and everyone else back or Marsh, Bader, and Crawford in the OF then Okamoto at the hot corner, basically the same bullpen, and an outrageous pitching staff all for the same price?