George Pickens is one of the singular talents in the NFL. He’s fast, he’s strong, and he’s athletic beyond belief. He’s also a bit of an a-hole. That’s not necessarily a bad thing, depending on where you are. In Pittsburgh, that was not okay. At least it wasn’t with Mike Tomlin. In Dallas though, he’s kind of perfect.
Jerry Jones likes his a-holes, as long as they perform. Boy, did Pickens ever perform last season. He put up 1429 yards on 93 catches with 9 TDs. That’s extra impressive when you realize he was the team’s 2nd receiving option (or at least 1a). CeeDee Lamb had 1077 yards, 75 catches and 3 TDs albeit in 3 less games than Pickens. Therein lies the problem though. How do you not even sniff the playoffs with a receiving duo like that? Well, the defense was historically bad. With Pickens a free agent and needs on the other side of the ball, can the Cowboys afford to sign Pickens? Should they?
Franchise
Jerry Jones is simply not known for his negotiating prowess. He made a mockery of the Micah Parsons situation last year, waited a year to cave to Lamb, and lost negotiations with Dak Prescott badly…twice. History is about to repeat itself with Pickens.
This will likely start with the franchise tag. Now there are two of these, the Exclusive and Non-Exclusive. The Exclusive tag is the one we are most familiar with. Pickens would be locked in to a $29m salary for 2026 unless he can work out an agreement with the Cowboys. The non-exclusive tag would be for the same amount, but the bidding would be open to everyone with Dallas getting the right of first refusal. Should they choose not to match, they would receive TWO 1st round picks for their trouble. Either can be seen as effective ways to limit the player’s earning power, but Jerry should opt for the Non-Exclusive tag to give him the option to save him from himself and allowing Pickens to leave with great compensation. If he goes with the Exclusive tag, he’s telling the league that he’s 100% doubling down on offense.
Salary Cap
Dallas is currently $30m over the cap without Pickens, but this is the NFL and that number isn’t real. Restructuring contracts for Dak, CeeDee, and others (plus just cutting Kenny Clark) can get the Cowboys quickly to nearly $100m in cap space. That will hurt them in the future, but for now it gives them all the space they need for at least the $29m likely coming for Pickens.
Of course, the Cowboys don’t really want to have Pickens count that much against the cap. They know they have to pay him, but a longer term deal means less cap money up front. Considering cap space now is necessarily worth more than cap space later due to the cap’s ever rising nature, this is the preferred option. It also has the added bonus of keeping him in silver and blue while taking a 2nd tag out of the equation (likely around $35m).
Contract
Pickens only turns 25 next month and he just put up an elite season, his first after 3 “just” very good seasons. He doesn’t regularly get hurt, but he does regularly ruffle feathers and ran himself out of one place already. Where does that get him in the overall WR salary hierarchy?
The top dog WR right now is Ja’Marr Chase with his 4/$161m deal signed before last season. It’s the top in terms of total dollars, AAV, and guarantee. Next up is Justin Jefferson with 4/$140m signed before the 2024 season. Needless to say, Chase wasn’t messing around and was going after highest non-QB money rather than just topping the WR market. Third on the list is CeeDee Lamb (4/$136m) followed closely by DK Metcalf (4/$132m).
Those last two are extra interesting because CeeDee is Pickens’ teammate in Dallas while DK basically took Pickens’ job in Pittsburgh. What this tells me is that Metcalf’s deal is the floor in negotiations. There is simply no way Pickens would accept a contract for any less than Metcalf since he is pretty easily the superior receiver and there is a ton of pride involved here. Sucks for Jerry that the Steelers made a mammoth overpay with their guy.
There are 2 more X-factors here. Puka Nacua and Jaxon Smith-Njigba are also up for contract extensions this offseason. Pickens is not a realistic threat to Chase’s title of highest paid, but these two are. They just put up very similar 120 catch, 1700 yard, 10 TD seasons (give or take) and have the kind of track record that Pickens does not. Are they Chase? Probably not, but they are close enough.
As it stands, Pickens would have a decent shot at topping Jefferson, and will probably be in the range of 4/$136-144m. However, that’s assuming he is the first to sign. If Nacua and JSN get their deals, that may change the equation. If they slot in under Chase, Pickens loses leverage and he will land closer to CeeDee. He won’t top those guys and can’t really make an argument to do so. However, if they beat Chase, which I expect they will, Pickens all of a sudden has a decent argument to go higher. If the S tier of the WR market is getting 4/$164-172m, then an A tier guy like Pickens will need to be in the $144-160m range. He might not be Chase, but Chase wouldn’t be on top of the board anymore.
Prediction
Jerry will reluctantly offer CeeDee’s deal and act like that’s more than fair. He’s not wrong, but that deal is now 2 years old. We saw last year with Micah Parsons that Jerry is very reluctant to give contracts that reflect a changing market and Pickens may be no different. Because of that, Pickens will likely play under the franchise tag this season or maybe even get traded. It would probably benefit the Cowboys to give him the non-exclusive franchise tag in order to possibly get draft pick compensation in case a big offer comes by. Dallas could then use the picks and the cap savings on defense. If he does sign a contract, I expect it to be right around Jefferson in the 4/$140-144m range.
All contract info courtesy of Spotrac but comparisons are my own
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