On November 1st, 2023, the Sixers traded James Harden to the Clippers for essentially a 2028 unprotected 1st, a 2029 pick swap, and two 2nd rounders. The Thunder and expiring player contracts were involved too, but for all intents and purposes, this was the trade. Considering the circumstances, this seemed at the time and still seems today like a decent transaction. The return isn’t really what I want to talk about though. I want to talk about what would have happened if the Sixers stayed in the James Harden business.
Background
The summer of 2023 was marred by one key phrase: Daryl Morey is a liar. Harden told this to a bunch of school kids when he was on a marketing tour through China, then the phrase started showing up on signs and in strip clubs (yes, for real). Was Daryl Morey a liar? What was he allegedly lying about? The NBA never found this out for sure (and they did investigate), but it was always assumed that the Sixers GM had implied in some way that he would give his best buddy Harden a max contract when the time came. One final big payday for Harden to ride into the sunset. Harden insisted that he had left money on the table in signing his previous contract extension and expected to be taken care of. It never happened. Instead of an extension that summer, Harden opted into his contract and demanded to be traded.
Harden had famously turned down a max contract extension with the Rockets back in 2020. At the time he still had 3 years and $133m left on his contract and Houston wanted to add another 2/$103m to the deal for the 2023-24 and 2024-25 seasons. This led to Harden getting traded to the Nets. Of course, after the Nets gave up 3 1sts and 5 pick swaps, they wanted some assurances that Harden would stick around too and offered him a 3/$166m extension. He turned that down too. The idea at the time was that Harden would turn down his coming player option and position himself to sign a 4/$223m max extension. It never happened. Harden demanded a trade out of Brooklyn to reunite with Daryl Morey in Philadelphia.
Harden did indeed turn down his player option that year, but he did not sign a max contract, not even close. Instead, Harden signed a 2/$69m deal that included a player option for year 2. It was obviously a HUGE discount, not just over the rejected extensions, but of his player option of $47m too. What in the world? Whether words were said or not, Harden didn’t do the Sixers a solid of taking less money for nothing. He expected to be compensated eventually. When he wasn’t, the relationship was over and he was LA bound.
What Happened Since?
Since Harden was playing out his 2nd year option with the Clippers, after his first season, he needed a new contract. The Clippers could only give him 2/$70m with a player option in year 2. The sides worked out a new deal the following summer, this time for 2/ $81.5m again with a player option. Despite these amicable extensions, Harden again wanted out of his situation and was traded to the Cavaliers for Darius Garland.
With the Clippers, Harden seemed rejuvenated. One of the reasons the Sixers did not want to give him a max extension was because he frankly didn’t deserve one. Harden looked a step slow and could no longer get to the rim at all. He looked old. While that didn’t exactly change in LA, he did make the team look much better. James Harden is simply an elite leader of offense, even if he can’t do everything he could back in his Houston days.
Now he is in Cleveland, and the Cavs have won 8 out of 9 since the trade (6 of 7 with Harden) to rescue themselves from the funk of the middle of the Eastern Conference standings. As of publication time, the Cavs are 37-22 and tied for 3rd place and have once again gained the hope of a contender after losing it through the first 50 games of the season.
What About the Sixers?
Well, it hasn’t been great, that’s for sure. Year 1 post Harden we lost to the Knicks in the first round of the playoffs as we struggled to put together reliable offense. In Year 2, Embiid’s health completely deteriorated and we ended up in the lottery. Since Harden and the contracts received in his trade came off the books that season, this was the year the team gave Paul George 4/$212m. Year 3 looks better because of Embiid’s return to form, but the Sixers still suffer from a completely unreliable and jagged offense. This plagues the Sixers at the end of games, but also in the 3rd quarter where first half leads go to die. Nick Nurse seems completely stymied for answers.
Had the Sixers given Harden the contract he thought he had been promised, it would have been for about 4/$210m and would still have one more year left at this point. Has he been worth it? Kinda! To say that the Sixers offense would not bog down with Harden running things is an understatement. That’s not what James Harden offenses do in the regular season. We would have absolutely been a better team with him around.
While that seems like it would have been a good gain for the Sixers against the Knicks in the 2024 playoffs, there’s no guarantee that he would have been there in the playoffs. Afterall, that is his Achillies Heel. Despite playing well in some playoff games (Games 1 and 4 against the Celtics in 2023), when the games got tough, James opted out (Games 6 and 7 against the Celtics in 2023). He’s even done it with the Clippers the last two years, losing both years in the first round thanks to Harden stinkers in elimination games.
2024-25 is a double-edged sword. On one side, the team never signs Paul George if Harden is on the team. That’s one less headache for one less year’s worth of bad salary. Harden also never gets hurt, the anti-George. However, the Sixers never would have bottomed out with Harden running the show. Sure, maybe seeing the Embiid health situation would have made him demand a trade (like he does), but there’s no chance a healthy Harden led team bottoms out to the point that the Sixers are in position to draft VJ Edgecombe. That huge loss of a season is a huge win in the end.
With an engaged Harden in 2025-26, the Sixers are probably in a similar situation to where the Cavs are now. The days without Embiid hurt a little less, but there would also be that nagging feeling that a playoff death knell isn’t too far off in the distance.
Verdict
What would you rather have right now?
A. James Harden, a 1st round pick somewhere in the 20s (because the VJ pick last year conveyed to OKC already), and the worry of playoff shortcomings
– OR –
B. Paul George, VJ Edgecombe, a mid-2028 Clippers pick, and basically no legitimate shot at contention for at least 2 more years?
Look, I get that this has not been a scientific look into prognosticating a life with James Harden. However, after 17 years in the NBA, I think we know what he is: an instant offensive lubricant that will under no circumstances help you win the title. While the on-court product would be infinitely more watchable, the last 3 years would not have their single most important result: VJ Edgecombe. The hope that he brings to the team as a rookie is worth everything short of a championship.
Further, the Rockets, Nets, Sixers, and Clippers all know one thing that the Cavs do not right now. While the honeymoon Harden phase feels great, it eventually ends in the playoffs. After Game 6 and 7 against Boston, I wanted nothing more to do with the Harden experience. I’m good with VJ, even if it means Paul George too.
Transaction info courtesy of Spotrac
Philly Front Office 
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