The Cristopher Sanchez Contract

The Phillies made headlines last week by signing Jesus Luzardo to a 5/$135m extension. It’s a fair deal for both sides considering Luzardo has an injury history but could also contend for a Cy Young this season. He figures to slot in as the Phillies #3 starter (and eventually the #2) with ace Cristopher Sanchez leading the way. Everything about Cristopher Sanchez has been a godsend for the Phillies.

History

The Steve Carlton for Rick Wise trade is probably the best trade in Phillies history. I’m not going to try to “well, actually” four Cy Young Awards. But ahead of getting Roy Halladay, Cliff Lee, Curt Schilling, Jim Bunning, and even Bobby Abreu for Kevin Stocker (man, the Phillies have had some good trades!) I would rank Cristopher Sanchez for Curtis Mead as #2.¹ It’s not just that the gulf between Mead and Sanchez as professionals has been so large, but we can’t forget that for awhile it seemed like we didn’t just lose this trade, but got our butts whipped like it was Ryne Sandberg all over again.²

November 20, 2019: Phillies Trade Curtis Mead for Cristopher Sanchez

Sanchez was signed out of the Dominican Republic for $65k as a 16-year-old by the Rays. It took him 3 years to get stateside and even then, couldn’t throw strikes. The Rays gave up on him and thought they had a steal themselves when they swapped him for Curtis Mead who immediately shot up prospect charts with Tampa. Since they both hit the majors though, Mead has flopped and is now with the White Sox while Sanchez has become one of the top starters in baseball. No one knew that was going to happen though when he signed his extension.

Extension

On June 22, 2024, Sanchez and the Phillies agreed to an early 4/$22.5m extension. I say “early” because the deal bought out 4 years of club control. The deal would pay $2m for his 3rd season (a raise over his likely league minimum that year), then $3.5m, $6.5m, and $9.5m for his arbitration years. For luxury tax purposes, this only counts as $5.65m per season. That’s right, Sanchez wasn’t even into his arb years when he signed. Why’d he do it?

At the time of signing, Sanchez was already 27.5 years old with just 36 career starts under his belt. Hell, he didn’t even have a full season in the majors at that point, basically one cup of coffee, another short season as a reliever, and then a good not great half season as a starter. When the deal was announced he had 14 starts in 2024 and was looking good, but no one knew yet if it was for real. That year he would finish with a 3.32 ERA in 181 innings, good for a 10th place Cy finish.

The reasoning for the new success was claimed to be a lowering of his velocity for better control. It worked. In Spring Training 2025 though, the velocity was back and the control stuck around. What resulted was a 2nd place Cy Young finish⁴ and a leveling up to one of the best pitchers in the world.

Can Cristopher Sanchez Win the Cy Young?

Back to the extension. The real kicker of the deal is that it comes with options. While the main part of the deal ends after the 2028 season when he will be almost 31, the Phillies have the option to pay him $15m in 2029 and $16m in 2030. These options are actually higher than they were at signing due to escalator clauses based on his Cy Young finishes. All tolled, the Phillies get a Cy Young level pitcher for 6/$53.5m.

Comps

Let’s start with the original contract and use his former lefty teammate Ranger Suarez as an example. In his 3rd year, he made the minimum at $730k. He never went to a hearing, but settled on the following arb contracts: Year 1-$2.95m, Year 2-$5.1m, and Year 3-$8.8m. That’s only $17.5m over 4 years. Jesus Luzardo was a Super-2 player and he received $25.6m over his last 4 years of team control. Granted, neither had a Top-2 Cy Young finish under their belt, but based on the averages of very good pitchers, the original contract was probably close to what he could have received.

Sanchez is 29 right now and would still be 3 years away from free agency had he never signed his extension. There simply isn’t much precedent for someone at his age with so much service time left. Jacob deGrom bought out 2 years of arbitration at 31 years old with a 5/$137.5m contract. He was the best pitcher in a generation at that point though. Corey Kluber was another late bloomer with Cleveland. He debuted for real at 27 then leveled up at 28 to win a Cy Young. With 4 years of control left at that point, he signed a 5/$38.5m contract that contained 2 option years at $17.5m and $18m and a $4m earned escalator. With Kluber though, at 35, his final option year was declined. He received 6/$56m. That’s essentially the Sanchez deal. It is the sad, underpaid story of the late bloomer.

Timeline

Based on merit and his coming projections, it isn’t hard to say the Sanchez deserves to be paid with the best. Without any context, it’s an easy argument to make. Take a look:

There are 8 pitchers (and Shohei Ohtani) making more than $30m per year right now. With the exception of Tarik Skubal at $32m, Sanchez is better than all of them (that includes Zack Wheeler at $42m).
If Sanchez were going into his final season before free agency at 29, what would he have received? He sure as hell would have bested Luzardo and his 5/$135m. Same for Garrett Crochet and his 6/$170m. Clayton Kershaw tops the list at 7/$215m when he was 25. With deGrom, they are the four biggest pitcher arb-extensions on the books. 5/$180m would probably get it done.
What if he were a free agent? Dylan Cease just got 7/$210m at 30 from the Blue Jays. Max Fried signed for 8/$218m with the Yankees. He would probably be in that range considering his easy delivery and lack of wear and tear on the arm.

In the end, the Phillies are getting $30m+ AAV production from just $5.65m. It is an incredible bargain that allows the Phillies to roster the enormous but fair $42m salary of Zack Wheeler, the bust of a $24m deal for Aaron Nola, and the market worthy extension of Jesus Luzardo at $27m. None of that is possible without Cristopher Sanchez.

Expect a Top 10 Best Phillies Trades article sometime soon ↩︎
Expect a Top 10 Worst Phillies Trades article sometime soon ↩︎
I’m sorry, but I can’t get over that Paul Skenes literally never had to pitch in a tough situation. He was great but rarely went past 6 innings and didn’t have to deal with a pennant race. I’m not saying Skenes and his 1.97 ERA shouldn’t have won, but it should not have been unanimous. ↩︎

Contracts: Spotrac.com

Stats: Baseball Reference

Photo Credit: Kyle Ross-Imagn Images