Philly Front Office

Sweet Merciful crap, the MLB season kicks off in a few days and we need to start talking about the Phillies and their rivals. Getting us started is the Washington Nationals. Last year, I was optimistic about the team. It seemed like they were in position to start surprising everyone…I was wrong. Instead, they made more trades, cut bait on their best pitcher, and are running a bare bones payroll. It is more of the same in Washington this year and they are in easy bet to finish in last place.

Phillies at Nationals: Bryce Harper, Before and After

Who Left?

Great news for the Phillies here. The two Nationals who torment the Phillies the most, Mackenzie Gore and Josh Bell, have left.

Gore routinely killed the Phillies to the tune of a career .703 OPS against, but things had been getting steadily worse. In 3 starts last year, Gore gave up a triple slash of .161/.200/.274. That’s ugly. Thankfully, he was traded to Texas in a prospect package headlined by 2025 12th overall pick Gavin Fien but included 4 other minor leaguers.¹ None of them are supposed to begin the year with the team.

Josh Bell is one of those guys who routinely ruins winnable games. He has a knack for ruining Phillies games with a HR to extend a lead or big hit just when you thought you had him. His numbers last year were bad but like Miguel Rojas, no one in the stands of Citizens Bank Park wants to see Bell at the plate. He has more HRs against the Phillies than any other team. He signed with Minnesota.

Who Leaves Next?

Also gone is head decision maker Mike Rizzo. Rizzo had been with the Nationals for 20 years, won a World Series, then was forced to trade/not sign all of the teams best players and lost his job when those transactions didn’t work out. In is former Phillies front office guy Ani Kilambi. He is 31 and thought to be an up-and-coming analytical genius. Whether that works or not, we have no idea. What it probably means though is more house cleaning. Who is likely on the block already?

• CJ Abrams – SS: Abrams has been worth 3.5 WAR each of the last three seasons. He is a solid major leaguer, but not a star. When you get traded for Juan Soto, even if you are just one part of that trade, you need to be better than just solid for people to really buy in. Abrams has 3 years of team control left and will probably be moved by the Trade Deadline this year.
• Luis Garcia – 2B: Garcia had a good 2024, but came back to Earth in 2025. He will turn 26 early in the season and only one more year of control after this season. Expect him to move quick if he has a hot start.
• Josiah Gray – SP: Gray is a bit of an afterthought at this point after essentially missing the last 2 years to injury. He was good in 2023 though and seems to finally be healthy. Fortunately for him, despite missing all that baseball, he was accumulating service time and will be a free agent in 2028. Considering the looming labor problems, any sign of life from Gray could mean a trade.
• Keibert Ruiz – C: Ruiz is the ONLY National under a guaranteed contract beyond this season after signing an 8/$50m extension in 2023. Of course, that didn’t stop the team from trading for MLB ready catcher Harry Ford. Considering catcher is such a premium position, look for him to move at the deadline to a perennially bad catching team like the Padres.
• Recent Signings: Zack Littell (SP), Miles Mikolas (SP), and Foster Griffin (RP) were all brought to the Nationals with the intention to leave the Nationals. They will get a chance to play and if they play well enough, they can go somewhere better.

Looking Around the NL East: Washington Nationals and Miami Marlins

Anything to Look Forward To?

I am trying to find positives here and there just aren’t many. The two best shots at core pieces for the future are James Wood and Cade Cavalli, but both have their flaws. Wood hit 38 doubles and 31 HRs as a 22 year old. That’s really good. However, he is a DH who nearly set an MLB record for season strikeouts with 221 last year.² Yikes! At least there is room for improvement there and as we all know with Kyle Schwarber, if you can hit enough bombs and walk enough, everything will be ok. Wood seems on his way. Cavalli finally made it back from TJ surgery to pitch 48 innings last year. He turns 28 during the season, but unlike Josiah Gray, he did not rack up any service time. That means a breakout could have him at the top of the Washington rotation for the next few years on the cheap.

The next level of guys are top prospects who really need to put together a good 2026: Brady House, Dylan Crews, and Daylen Lile. House and Crews are the well known names that have so far struggled in the majors. Not that anyone should write them off because they are so young and highly touted, but the Nationals will need to see signs of life. As for Lile, I almost put him with Wood above. He had a very impressive rookie season with 15 doubles, 11 (!) triples, and 9 HRs to match a good understanding of the strike zone. If he hits .300 again, Washington may have their leadoff hitter for the next long time.

Down on the Farm

The Nationals have 6 players worth knowing this season with the top 4 considered Top 100 prospects by MLB.com:

• Eli Willits was just selected #1 overall in 2025 and only just turned 18 in December. He is advanced for his age though and is considered one of the top prospects in the game. He won’t hit the majors for a while though.
• Travis Sykora was breezing through the minors and had a shot at a 2026 debut but TJ stopped him in his tracks.
• Harry Ford was brought in from the Mariners due to Cal Raleigh holding down the catcher duties for the foreseeable future in the Emerald City. His calling card is his batting eye which has him close to a 1:1 K/BB ratio.
• Jarlin Susana is 21 and enormous at 6’6″ and 235 pounds. As you would assume, his fastball gets up to 103. Injuries are his issue, but a clean season could have him knocking on the door by the Fall
• Gavin Fien came over for Mackenzie Gore and seems like a jack of all trades, master of none type. The plan is for him to pair with Willits on the left side of the infield in the minors and to let the develop together.
• Luis Perales has a huge fastball and already has TJ behind him, returning last year with the fastball up to 101. He will start the year in AAA and could see the majors by the summer depending on how he does.

Despite having the 3rd worst record in baseball last year, MLB rules forced the Nationals down to 11th in the Draft due to their continued suckitude. Washington should still be able to get a highly rated kid, but not the elite level prospect a #3 pick could have yielded. They will be back in the mix for the #1 pick next year though.

Phillies vs Nationals: Trea Turner’s Wild Ride

Payroll

The Nationals are owned by Mark Lerner, son of the real owner Ted Lerner who passed away in 2023. While Mark may cry poor with his father’s billions conveniently hidden just out of frame, that’s still no reason for Washington to be so thrifty. It is worth repeating that Keibert Ruiz is the ONLY NATIONAL WITH A GUARANTEED CONTRACT past this season. What the hell is that?³

The tax payroll is $108m but that’s deceptive. $20m of that is player benefits and Pre-Arb pool contributions that every team must pay. Ok, $88m? Not quite. $35m of that is still going to Steven Strasburg who hasn’t pitched at all since 2022 but legitimately since 2019. Because of a settlement they reached, they aren’t even paying that cash out this year, it is heavily deferred. That’s $53m. That’s the lowest in MLB, beating out the Marlins and their $59m real payroll by about 10%. What a joke.

Prediction

Best case scenario is for House and Crews to join Wood and Lile as legitimate hitters and giving the Nationals an up-and-coming top of the lineup. That would change everything for the franchise. Even with that, the pitching is simply terrible. So, if those two continue to hit in the low .200s, the season could get real messy, real fast. I expect them to be sellers at the deadline no matter what, but there is the potential for a true shitbomb of a season here with James Wood as the only reason to pay any attention to Capital Baseball.

Contracts: Spotrac

Stats: Baseball Reference

Prospects: MLB.com

Photo: Jess Rapfogel/Getty Images

1. Unthankfully, we face the Rangers to start the year and will likely see Gore in Game 3 of the season. Wonderful. That’s like when Jacob deGrom left the Mets and then pitched Opening Dat against the Phillies also with the Rangers. ↩︎
2. I needed to know, so do you: 1. Mark Reynolds – 223, 2. Adam Dunn – 222, 3. James Wood – 221. ↩︎
3. I can’t get over how everyone gets mad at the Dodgers and Mets, while teams like the Nationals simply do not participate at all in free agency. Even if they aren’t in on the top free agents, there is nothing stopping them from playing in the competitive middle, they just don’t do it. Instead of Ranger Suarez, Michael King, or Zack Gallen they went with Zack Littell on the mound and maybe the worst rotation in baseball. Congratulations. ↩︎