Philly Front Office

Hurt and stale. With very few exceptions, the 2026 Braves are either injured or running back the same underachieving bunch that hasn’t won a playoff series over the last 4 seasons.¹ On paper they should be a threat to win a World Series, but in practice, it is hard to argue that last year’s 4th place finish was an anomaly rather than the result of more of the same.

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NL East Previews ’26

The Budget

For years, the Braves have been ruthlessly locking up their young stars VERY early and simply refusing to negotiate with anyone who wants to test free agency. That’s why Max Fried and Dansby Swanson aren’t still in the rotation or manning shortstop, two positions of huge need on the 2026 Braves. Instead, you have to following team friendly deals…

• Ronald Acuna Jr. – 8/$100m (plus two $17m team options)
• Ozzie Albies – 7/$35m (plus two $7m club options)
• Michael Harris II – 8/$72m (plus two team options for $15m and $20m)
• Sean Murphy – 6/$73m (plus one $15m team option)
• Matt Olson – 8/$168m (plus one $20m team option)
• Austin Riley – 10/$212m (plus one $20m team option)
• Spencer Strider – 6/$75m (plus one $22m team option)

All 7 of these deals are (or at least were) good deals. While they keep the Braves successful and profitable, they also make it very difficult for Atlanta to make any changes. That is essentially six starters in the lineup locked in no matter what. What do you do if Michael Harris² and Ozzie Albies stop hitting? How about if Ronald Acuna and Spencer Strider keep getting hurt? For a budget conscious team, they can’t go out and replace or trade these guys. For better and for worse, they are all Atlanta Braves no matter what.

This leaves little around the edges for improvement simply because of positional scarcity: left field, shortstop, and DH. To fill those roles, they brought in weak hitting 32-year-old Mauricio Dubon to play short and weak hitting 35 year old Mike Yastrzemski to play left. Their previous SS (Orlando Arcia) and LF (Jurickson Profar) are not available due to being boneheads.

Essentially, the only place they can really improve is with pitching. Chris Sale has been a godsend since coming over from the Red Sox and has given well above average innings for well below average pay. Outside of him though, the rest of the staff has been either injured or inconsistent. Reynaldo Lopez looked great but then missed all of last season. The prospects that they had depended on to give them what the position players gave them have not exactly panned out. While Spencer Strider looked like a future ace, he has been dealing with health issues. Spencer Schwellenbach is a beast, but he’s hurt too. AJ Smith-Shawver, Bryce Elder, Ian Anderson, Kyle Wright, and Mike Soroka all looked like the future at one point but now are basically “remember that guy?” names.

Finally, the bullpen is a very expensive and aging unit. Robert Suarez was signed in the offseason for 3/$45m. While he is very good (except when facing Bryce Harper with a World Series appearance on the line), he is also 35. Raisel Iglesias came back for another year at $16m, but he’s 36. New addition Tyler Kinley is 35. Aaron Bummer is 32. Dylan Lee is 31. How is their entire bullpen well into their 30s???

Why the Braves Should Hate the Braves

The Injured List (plus Profar)

The Braves are hurting. Spencer Strider was just diagnosed with a strained oblique and is only expected to miss a few starts, but that is a tricky injury. He joins several more expected to miss time:

• Ha-Seong Kim – SS – torn finger tendon, due back in May
• Sean Murphy – C – right hip labrum tear, due back in May
• Joey Wentz – LHP – torn ACL, due back in 2027
• Hurston Waldrep – RHP – pitching elbow inflammation followed by arthroscopic surgery, due back in the summer
• Spencer Schwellenbach – RHP – bone spurs in pitching elbow followed by arthroscopic surgery, due back in the summer
• Joe Jimenez – RP – knee surgery followed by more knee surgery, missed 2025 and no timetable for 2026
• AJ Smith-Shawver – RHP – Tommy John Surgery in the summer, no timetable for return but probably 2027
• Jurickson Profar – LF – Cheated again, due back in 2027

That’s brutal! That’s 4 possible starters on the shelf to start the year. While Chris Sale has had good health since joining Atlanta, that hasn’t been true for most of his career. If he goes down, they are sunk completely. The same is true for oft-injured Ronald Acuna.

The Farm

After years of trades and the promotion of Drake Baldwin last year, the Braves farm is thin. Top prospect Cam Caminiti is not close to the majors. That leaves top 100-ish pitcher JR Ritchie who already has a TJ Surgery under his belt. Instead of easing him back, Ritchie jumped up 90 innings from 2024 to 2025. He could hit the majors this year, but seeing that workload and knowing the Braves, I wouldn’t count on him staying for long.

They also have pitcher Didier Fuentes who was forced into action as a 20-year-old last season. While he should stay in the minors this season, there is a possibility he works from the Braves bullpen considering his big fastball and the need for some youth.

The Braves Might Get Even Worse

Prediction

Again, on paper this team looks great. If everyone has close to their best years and all the pitchers come back healthy, they could easily win the division and leave the Phillies and Mets searching for answers. A playoff rotation of Sale, Schwellenbach, and Strider could do some serious damage. There’s just no reason to think that will happen. Not only is the team already injured, but they are out of reinforcements. No big time hitters or pitchers are coming through that door. If Acuna or Sale go down, there would be no recovering from that. Each of them are good enough to win you a game on any given night. You can’t say the same for the rest of the lineup.

Best case Braves scenario is to hang around .500 for half the season like their World Series team did. After that, hope for better health and sneak into the playoff wilds. The division is probably out of reach leaving a wild card race with the Phillies/Mets, Reds, Cubs, Padres, Giants, and Diamondbacks. That’s rough. I think they miss out again.

Stats: Baseball Reference

Contracts: Spotrac

Photo: Brett Davis/USA Today

1. Granted, they won the World Series the season before that, but that was obviously the high water mark. ↩︎
2. While his hitting numbers of 26 doubles, 6 triples, and 20 HRs looked good, his 128 Ks to 16 walks was brutal ↩︎