NL East Preview ’26: Philadelphia Phillies

I have to admit, I spent a lot of the winter not just down about the Phillies, but actively ANGRY about what they hadn’t done and their overall plan. I wasn’t in the minority either. The Phillies DO need another bat in the lineup. Funny thing happened on the way to Clearwater though, all the pitching got my blood flowing again. Jesus Luzardo and Cristopher Sanchez signed extensions, Aaron Nola looked competent, Andrew Painter took the mound, and Zack Wheeler was…there. That starting rotation plus an exponentially better bullpen means the Phillies are going to win a lot of games. Hopefully that extra bat comes at the deadline, but we are a better team right now than 365 days ago.

Washington Nationals
Miami Marlins
Atlanta Braves
New York Mets
Philadelphia Phillies
NL East Previews ’26

What’s Better?

This time last season we were trying to convince ourselves that Jordan Romano and Max Kepler still had some upside in their surgically repaired bodies. My lord was that wrong. Both were total abject disasters providing less than zero value with both having by far their worst seasons as professionals. $18.5m liquified and left to evaporate in the summer sun. Mercifully, they are gone.

In the bullpen you can see the Romano replacement as either Jhoan Duran or Brad Keller, the former the new closer and the latter the new bullpen free agent addition. Not only are both NOT rehabbing from injury and ineffectiveness, but both are f*****g good. Sure, the bullpen is a place of volatility, but no more sad boy stares over the shoulder at the flight track of a baseball being knocked into orbit.

Kepler’s best attribute was supposed to be his competence in the outfield. Well, at least that’s what they told us. The metrics didn’t back that up and AT BEST he was nothing special. Maybe compared to the other corner outfielder he seemed like a savant, but beating Nick Castellanos in a fielding contest is like me dunking on 8-foot rims against my 10-year-old. In comes Adolis Garcia who actually is a good outfielder. Whether his less-than-ideal bat comes around with the help of hitting coach Kevin Long is another story.

The real upgrade here is over Castellanos. I have a soft spot in my heart for the Miami-Guy, but his welcome had been worn out. What was it he was providing by the end? No offense, a black hole on defense, and openly fighting with his manager. He had to go. The outfield is now Garcia, rookie Justin Crawford, and a platoon of Brandon Marsh and Otto Kemp. Defensively, that’s an upgrade over the Kepler, Marsh, Castellanos triumvirate we started 2025 with and probably better than the Harrison Bader led outfield we ended with considering Nick’s ineptitude.

Remembering the Phillies Relievers of the Unmemorable 2010s

What’s Worse?

Without Harrison Bader and Ranger Suarez, this team is missing the two people who made me smile the most during last season. If Bader’s energy was considered a gift, then Ranger Suarez was a treasure. I love that guy. Despite being completely different in temperament, he was this squad’s version of Shane Victorino for me, pure baseball joy shaped into a pitcher. He will be missed. The pitching staff is still incredible, but having Ranger is simply better than not having Ranger.

When Bader was here, he provided an unbelievable spark to the lineup. It was most likely unsustainable, but like a musician dying young, that is what we have to hold on to. The lineup seemed complete with him there. The plan for much of December was for Bo Bichette to be a much more sustainable and potent bat in the lineup. It didn’t happen in the most painful way possible. That leaves Trea Turner, Kyle Schwarber, and Bryce Harper on an island in the lineup with a lot of hope and desperation saddled on the six guys hitting behind them.

The extra year that is 2026 and no longer 2025 is the forgotten problem in the lineup. JT Realmuto and Zack Wheeler are now 35, Schwarber and Harper are 33, and Trea Turner will join them with Cliff Lee candles on his birthday cake. How everyone hits the aging curve is different, but our newly extended catcher at least has been in precipitous decline at the plate. At least JT hitting 8th is much better than JT hitting 4th.

Dave Dombrowski and His 1-Year Contracts

What’s the Same (for better and for worse?)

Yes, the Phillies ran it back this winter. For all the moaning over this, other than possibly landing Bichette (which based on the contract he signed with the Mets, was never going to happen) or trading the youth for Ketel Marte, this was always both the most likely scenario. Essentially it was a choice to keep Aiden Miller, Justin Crawford, and Andrew Painter for the next several years over a win now move. There are advantages to each option, but both sides are defensible. It is what it is.

What we are left with is one very serious need, someone has to level up. The 2008 championship team wasn’t a winner because of Jimmy Rollins and Chase Utley, it was a winner because Shane Victorino and Jayson Werth gave the team something they didn’t expect.¹ They turned in All-Star level seasons out of nowhere. The 2023 team got this from Stott and Marsh while 2024 had it from Bohm in the first half, but none of those guys kept it up in 2025. Out of those three, Justin Crawford, and Adolis Garcia, someone has to give the Phillies the jolt that was missing last year. The pitching is good enough to get us to the playoffs, but for us to have a real chance, someone needs to bring their game up a notch.

There is that rotation though. With great reports coming from a rehabbing Zack Wheeler, he is set to join Cristopher Sanchez and Jesus Luzardo at the top of the rotation. They are arguably the best Top 3 in MLB. Probably the most encouraging camp (and WBC) development is Aaron Nola though. He has made me rip more than a few hairs out of my head over the years, but last year was a disaster. If he can hit his career average around a 3.83 ERA over 200 innings, the Phillies are going to win a lot of games. Those 4 would leave probably around 35-40 starts total for Taijuan Walker and Andrew Painter. That’s some serious rotation talent and serious rotation depth. It’s baseball so you can never have too much pitching, but it is an enviable 6-some.

Then there is the Big 3 of Turner, Schwarber, and Harper. Turner and Schwarber were MVP level last season while Harper just seemed off from the beginning. He is prone to slumping, but there was always a hot streak to count on to level out his stats. Last year, it never happened. I am not one of those never-Harpers, but I would like to see him go on a tear or two this season to show that it’s still in there. I’m optimistic. With another 40+ HRs from Schwarber and a .300 season from Turner, we will be just fine.

What Do We KNOW About the Phillies Going into Spring Training?

What’s Coming?

The Phillies farm system has been depleted from recent trades and now the promotions of Painter and Crawford, but the 2025 draft infused a lot of nice talent. Gage Wood, Cade Obermueller, and Matthew Fisher are all quality young arms that immediately slotted into the top half of the Phillies system. Depending on how they all do this season, they could be nice trade bait along with fringe Top-100 prospect Aroon Escobar.

As for players helping the big club, Jean Cabrera and Alex McFarlane will likely be the first pitchers up in case of emergency to either the rotation or pen. Moises Chace will be making his return from TJ Surgery and could be something by the end of the season in a reliever role. As for hitters, Aiden Miller has had back issues, but with good performance he could be very interesting in terms of promotion around the trade deadline depending on what is happening with Alec Bohm and Bryson Stott. Gabriel Rincones Jr could also make the big club at some point. He has a ton of power but is completely lost against lefties. He is strictly a platoon outfielder.

Prediction

Despite excitement being lower than last year, the Phillies are a better team who will win a ton of games. My prediction is 97 and narrowly edging out the Mets in the final week to take the NL East. While the pitching is the bread and butter, the Phillies will need to find a way to add pop to the lineup at the trade deadline. We’ll cross that bridge when we get there though. Playoffs are a crapshoot and I’m done making those kinds of predictions. Happy Opening Day EVERYBODY!!!

Stats: Baseball Reference