Philly Front Office

The Phillies are interested in Nolan Arenado to some extent. If Alec Bohm is traded, there will be a pretty big hole at 3rd base for at least a year until Aiden Miller is ready to come up. If Miller is moved, well all the bigger that hole. Arenado is a future first ballot hall of famer who is deteriorating at the plate and is owed $74m over the next 3 years. Despite that, I am about to tell you why we should be interested in him.

Ok, I’ll bite, why should I be interested? How did you get in here anyway?

Numbers-wise, again, Arenado is getting worse. 2 seasons ago he was an MVP candidate, but right now he is about league average at the plate. Strangely though, he has reverse platoon splits. Despite the overall numbers being down, as a righty Arenado has bashed right-handed pitching the last 2 years. He used to destroy lefties, but he is not picking them up anymore. This is pretty valuable considering everyday players see about triple the amount of right-handed pitchers than left-handed. He would make a perfect platoon partner with Sosa.

Okay Ed, let’s say I believe you [and I don’t] that he would be a good enough Bohm replacement, didn’t you also say he is making way too much money the next 3 years? Why, yes, I did savvy listener. But that is not even close to the whole story…

Arenado signed a huge and warranted 8 year, $260m contract with the Rockies in 2019. That deal had a standard $32.5m AAV for luxury tax purposes. The Rockies then gifted him to the Cardinals at his absolute peak for nothing AND paid down a large part of the contract (which they are still doing). Part of the deal also included adding an extra year on to the contract and (I believe) converted a big chunk of the salary to deferred money. In the end, the AAV lowered to $25.5m to the Cardinals. The out-of-pocket cost left on the contract is $21m in 2025 ($6m more deferred), $16m in 2026 ($6m more deferred), and $15m in 2027 (no deferral). I don’t know the exact calculation for deferrals, but his AAV should be around $18.5m.

Ed, that still sucks and now I am out 2 minutes of my life. I’m calling security. But wait, there’s more…

The Cardinals want to shed salary and probably lose some games this year in hopes to regroup for next year. They know they are dealing a depreciating asset and hope to just get anything of value for him. They will have to eat some of his contract to do that. If he had one year left, it wouldn’t be a big deal. Unfortunately for them, we are talking 3 years of starter level money. That is not going to fly for anyone.

Wait, what if they chipped in half of his salary? Now look who is interested…

Let’s say out of pocket came to $10m in 2025, $8m in 2026, and $8m in 2027 with the Phillies taking the deferrals. Now we are looking at around $10m AAV for 3 years of solid defense, a mentor for Miller, and probably a solid righty platoon. This would also allow us to trade Bohm who has much more value. This isn’t crazy anymore is it??? The Cardinals do this because instead of $25.5m in AAV, they are down to around $8.5m, basically shedding 2 of the 3 years overall, and get a mid-tier prospect.

Ed, you sold me. Get me the Cardinals on the phone!!! Right away Mr. D!