Philly Front Office

Your Super Bowl Champion Philadelphia Eagles have a few key free agents this off season. I saw Spotrac’s projections for our guys and they are not realistic. Let’s take a look at the market for each and their (I promise this is fun) contractual precedents. Contractual guarantees are more for QBs and the tip-top of the market guys, so I left that out of the analysis instead focusing on Average Annual Value (AAV).

EDGE Josh Sweat

Sweat had himself a game, didn’t he? There was some talk that his 2.5 sacks even had Sweat deserving of the Super Bowl MVP award (they didn’t). He is 28 years old and has tallied 33 sacks over his 4 seasons as a starter. That’s solid but not amazing production. Because of the Super Bowl though he seems destined to be overpaid. As a former 4th round pick, he has a few modest production comparables. Zach Allen recently got 3/$45m from the Broncos, but he was slightly younger. Jonathan Greenard received 4/$76m from the Vikings, but he was coming off a 13 sack season. Dre’Mont Jones signed the 3/$51m Bryce Huff contract a year before Huff did. Then there’s Huff himself who after 10 sacks in a backup role seemed destined to break out further. There’s no breakout left in Sweat. He is what he is, more of a known 8-10 sack producer than anything. That seems like right between Greenard and Jones to me. 3/$51m translates $68m over 4 years. Honestly, that’s way higher than I would go for Sweat. Prediction: $68m – $72m over 4 years.

LB Zack Baun

The Defensive Player of the Year finalist and All Pro put together an all-time contract year season. Maybe with the exception of Sam Darnold, no one earned themselves more money this year. How much money? Back in early December I thought he was in line for a 3/$45m contract, but since then Nakobe Dean got hurt and Baun kept getting better.  4 years ago, Fred Warner completely changed the Inside Linebacker market with a 5 year $95m deal with SF. Roquan Smith topped that 2 summers later with a 5 year $100m contract. The only one even close to those two is Chicago’s Tremaine Edmunds at 4 years, $72m (massive $50m guaranteed) who signed the same off season as Smith. After those 3, the next highest is Patrick Queen at 3 years, $41m ($13m guaranteed) which was signed last year. Edmunds and Queen are both former first round picks and 2-3 years younger than Baun when they signed their deals. Both had a track record of solid but not Smith/Warner level production, with Queen leveraging his contract year as his best year (second team All-Pro). It should be noted that Edmunds was probably overpaid by a team that absolutely doesn’t know what it’s doing while Queen was probably underpaid by a team that does.

This off season, Baun has company. Dre Greenlaw, Nick Bolton, Bobby Wagner, and Seattle’s Ernest Jones are all free agents. I mention these 4 because despite Baun having their #2 overall ranking, PFF lists these guys above Baun in their top 100. Greenlaw was good in limited play last year but is coming off a serious injury. Wagner is old and the other two weren’t nearly as good as Baun. My hope is that the deficiencies of each keep the market down (I’m not anti-player, just pro-Eagles). No one is getting Smith and Warner money; the track records just aren’t there. Queen’s deal seems pretty low for Baun who had a better platform year and is the kind of leader that the apparently hated Queen never was in Baltimore. The gap between those two groups is huge and only includes Edmunds who is no comp at all. My expectation is for Baun to resign with the Eagles first among his peer group because that’s what Howie does. By acting early, he will get a good deal even if he is bidding against himself. Greenlaw and Bolton will sign slightly bigger deals right after. Prediction: Baun resigns with Eagles for 3 years and $52.5m OR 4 years and $64m.

RG Mekhi Becton

Of all the people on this list, Becton is most likely to take a discount to stay. Throughout the season, no one looked happier to be an Eagle than the guy who lived through NY Jets hell for 4 years. He is only 26 years old and has his best football ahead of him, but if anyone knows how good he has it as an Eagle, it’s Becton. He is the 6th rank guard on the market according to PFF. Landon Dickerson is the highest paid Guard at $21m AAV, but 19 others are paid over $10m per season. As a former first round pick with the body of a tackle and a graduate of Stoutland University, Becton probably could get just under top tier money from someone. He only has one year of production, but that pedigree cancels that out some. You could see him getting top 10 money at $17m per year. If he takes a discount, maybe you average out the 10-20 range at around $14m per year, which is conveniently what 26-year-old Wyatt Teller agreed to 4 years ago. Prediction: Becton resigns with the Eagles for 3 years and $40m OR signs elsewhere for 4 years and $68m. Would you give away $28m to be happy?

DT Milton Williams

Until Jalen Carter moves the needle next off season, the top of the DT market is Chris Jones at $31m AAV. No one this cycle is getting that. Did you know the next 12 highest paid guys at the position are all making $20m+? The 3 guys coming just below that level are all on old deals too. For anyone thinking otherwise, I hate to break it to you, but Milton Williams is getting north of $20m per year. Former 3rd rounder Alim McNeill just got 4/$97m from the Lions. 2nd rounder Christian Barmore got 4/$83m from the Pats. Williams will suffer a little from not being an every-down player, but his athleticism is still off the charts for the position. He reminds me a lot of Javon Hargrave coming from Pittsburgh. Steelers fans had nothing but great things to say about him and that’s what we are all going to say about Williams. Hargrave only signed for 3/$39m, but that was 5 years ago. The market has skyrocketed since then. Hargrave was the 10th highest paid DT after he signed. 10th highest now is Dexter Lawrence at around $22m. Prediction: Williams gets 4 years between $80m and $88m.

CB Isaiah Rodgers

Rodgers has had an interesting last 3 years to say the least. He went from promising 24-year-old starter with the Colts to 27-year-old back up with the Eagles strictly because of an off-field betting incident. He could be convinced to stay with the Eagles on a short deal or he could look to get his highest value while he still can. Much of this depends on what the Eagles do with Darius Slay. If Slay stays one more year, Rodgers will be tempted with a starting job somewhere else. If Slay does not come back, the Eagles could offer him that spot. Either way, Rodgers isn’t sniffing anything close to top corner money. Even though he was not a starter on this team, he has that kind of upside. His highest comp might be old friend Rasul Douglas signing with Green Bay 3 years ago as a 27-year-old for 3 years, $21m. Douglas had bounced around before breaking out with the Packers but at least had one season of high-level starter production before he signed his deal. If Slay retires, I can see him getting slightly less that that deal from the Birds. If not, someone else will. Prediction: 3 years, $18m.

RB Kenneth Gainwell

My favorite comparison on the list. Antonio Gibson. Both out of Memphis, Gibson was drafted in the 3rd while Gainwell was picked in the 5th. In Washington, Gibson gradually fell out of favor having just a bit more production in a backup roll compared to Gainwell. Both are considered 3rd down type receiving backs rather than bell cows. Last off-season Gibson signed a 3y/$11.25m contract with New England as a 25-year-old. Wouldn’t you know it, Gainwell also happens to be 25! Serendipitous. That 3yr deal is his most realistic comp. Maybe…MAYBE he tops out at 3/$15m if he gets a slight bump for being a champ and running backs in general are more appreciated this year thanks to Saquan, Henry, and Jacobs. If we didn’t have Shipley, I would love to give him the Gibson deal. How can you not love a running back named Gainwell??? Prediction: 3 years, $12m.

Eagles Ranking

Zack Baun is the most likely to be an Eagle next year, while Gainwell and Williams are least likely. The reasoning isn’t complicated: if the Eagles have a succession plan, they will not overpay a redundancy. Gainwell has Shipley and Williams has Jordan Davis and Moro Ojomo. Sweat has Jalyx Hunt and possibly a high draft pick. Becton has Tyler Steen. Rodgers depends a lot on what happens with Darius Slay. Zack Baun simply cannot be replaced. Even though Howie doesn’t pay linebackers, we are in a bad spot with Baun thanks to Dean’s injury. I fully believe he would have been gone (low balled) had Dean not gotten hurt. Here is the full list from most likely to least likely to return: Baun, Becton, Rodgers, Sweat, Williams, Gainwell.

(All contract numbers courtesy of Spotrac; stats from Pro Football Reference; and PFF rankings from…I can’t remember. It will come to me)