Philly Front Office

On February 28, 2019, I was typing away at my laptop in a sleepy and sparse Florida coffee shop when my phone vibrated. Then it vibrated again. Then again. Then it felt like an earthquake in my pocket, and I finally checked it. “Bryce Harper to the Phillies.” YEEEESSSSSSSS!!!!!! I yelled out and the couple patrons and all the workers looked at me like the crazy person I was. I was wearing my regular low profile red hat with the white P and I exasperatedly told everyone in the place what had happened. No one actually cared, but they seemed genuinely happy that this deranged rando just received the best news of his life.

The deal was for an astounding 13 years and $330m. It was the largest contract in professional sports history for a few days and designed specifically to make Philly fans feel warm inside. No opt outs! Harper was going to be a Phillie for the rest of his career. Someone, not just anyone, a star of stars, wanted to be here. He wanted to be with us. I cannot describe how validating that felt.

Flash ahead 6 years and the Phillies have been to the post season three straight years including the World Series two years ago. Harper has an MVP award and one of the coolest moments in post season history (HARPER, THE SWING OF HIS LIFE). He also recovered from Tommy John Surgery faster than any human in recorded history. Whether it’s getting him to the plate or waiting for a tendon to heal, everything he has done in a Phillies uniform feels like it comes with a sense of urgency for everyone involved. It’s exhilerating.

You already know all of this, and I am just gushing at this point. Let’s talk about his contract. That year there was buzz that the Phillies would actually go after Manny Machado instead or even in addition to Harper. He even had that ridiculous interaction with the electrician outside CBP. It wasn’t meant to be as Machado signed for 10/$300m in San Diego. His contract had the opt-out clause which was exercised in order to re-up for 11/$350 after only 4 years. Machado’s new contract comes with a low initial salary but is poised to take a huge bump next year ($40m per year). That cash bump along with the Padres bad ownership situation may cause them to look to trade him. Harper’s cash outlay stays at $27.5m the next few years before actually going down in the final 3 years to $23.5m. The two deals could not be more different. Yes, I know he is looking for a raise/extension, but we aren’t there yet.

Harper’s deal is currently the 9th largest contract in baseball and only barely ahead of shorter-term deals for Corey Seager, Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Garrett Cole, and Rafael Devers. Vlad Guerrero and Kyle Tucker should only push him further down the list next off-season.

The length and dollars are impressive, but the beauty of this contract is in the Average Annual Value for tax purposes. At $25.3m for the life of the contract, he is currently the 31st ranked tax hit in baseball, just ahead of Dansby Swanson. He is third on his own team (behind Zack Wheeler ($42m) and Trea Turner ($27.2m))! At the top of the list is his former teammate Juan Soto at $51m. That math isn’t too hard to see that Soto costs the Mets the equivalent of two Bryce Harpers and will for the next seven years. Damn.

Despite signing the deal 6 years ago, Harper is still producing at an MVP level. Who else on the AAV list can say that?

4. Aaron Judge ($40m AAV) – He is on here not because he is bad (he isn’t) but because he is a great test case. Judge is about 6 months older than Harper and also has 7 years of contract remaining. Who is going to age better?

5. Jacob DeGrom ($37m) – He has pitched 9 games for the Rangers since signing his contract. There are 3 years remaining.

7. Mike Trout (35.5m) – He is the greatest player of his generation, but for better and for worse, his career has mirrored Ken Griffey Jr. The production is still there when he plays, but that has only been 41% of games the last 4 years. He has 6 years left on his deal.

8. Anthony Rendon ($35m) – Woof. His games played are even less than Trout (31%), but he doesn’t even seem to want to play baseball anymore. Mercifully for the Angels, he only has 2 years left on his deal.

20. Trea Turner ($27.2m) – There is still an elite player in Turner based on his second half in 2023 and first half in 2024, but we never know what we will get out of him. Do we feel confident that we are going to get that Turner for the next 9 years?

23. Carlos Rodon ($27m) – His career in NYC has not gone well, providing close to no value overall. He still has 4 years left for his age 32-35 seasons.

27. Kris Bryant ($26m) – This contract is somehow MUCH worse than Anthony Rendon’s. Bryant has been worth -1.3 WAR over his rocky Rockies career (never sorry). He still has 4 years left at this number and will likely go down as one of the worst free agent signings of all time.

30. Xander Bogaerts ($25.5m) – He hasn’t been awful for San Diego, but it is definitely trending that way. He has 9 years left on his deal and he’s already 32. He is about to fall off a cliff. This is more of a test case for Turner than Harper.

These were obviously the worst of the worst, but the only guys you’d actually consider trading Harper for over the next 6 years are Ohtani, Soto, Francisco Lindor, Corey Seager, Mookie Betts, and Bobby Witt. 6 out of 30. That’s incredible.

I can (and do) talk contract numbers all day, but I don’t have to tell you about those to validate the Harper signing. He brings something completely different to this team. There is a generation of us who had an amazing run with Jimmy Rollins, Chase Utley, and Ryan Howard. For around 8 years I could see those guys and feel good about the Phillies every day (and I still can when I think about them). They were a part of my life. Bryce brings that to this generation of Phillies fans. For the last 6 years and the next 7, there is always something to feel good about and that is everything for young Phillies fans. My 5-year-old tells everyone his favorite player is Bryce Harper. He’ll be able to do that until he is 12! You can’t put a number on that.