Philly Front Office

(Not burying the lede: Painter goes 5 innings for the Iron Pigs, giving up a 2-run HR but little else)

At the beginning of the season the Phillies and I got together and set up a plan for the right-handed savior of the pitching staff. This collaborative process consisted of the team vaguely claiming a July target date and me extrapolating from there. Last night he made his second start in AAA. How has he done and how close is he to his debut?

Results

April 11 – A – 1.1 IP – 2ER – 1 BB – 3K

April 18 – A – 3 IP – 0 ER – 0BB – 4K

April 24 – A – 3IP – 0ER – 0 BB – 3K

May 1 – A – 4 IP – 3ER – 0BB – 2K (was perfect through 3 then ran into trouble)

May 8 – AAA – 3IP – 0ER – 3 BB – 5K (walked the bases loaded in the 3rd and escaped)

May 15 – AAA – 5IP – 2ER – 2BB – 3K (2 run HR was the only damage)

The Plan

Obviously, the results matter, but our main focus is his innings. On the season, I can’t see the Phillies wanting him to go past the 130ish innings mark. His high mark in his career is 100. Get him to around 110 for the season, leaving around 20 for the playoffs is ideal. This means his two main objectives are to be able to go deep into games (like 90 pitches) but without overworking his arm. So far, he is at 18.1 innings. This means he is already ahead of schedule according to my initial estimate.

My plan? I’m nobody. What I do know though is that they do not want him wasting bullets and innings in the minors. 30-35 innings in the minors seems right. This means, assuming similar results and between 5 and 6 innings per start, he has 2-3 more starts in the minors. That should be the end of the line.

The Next Step

Prediction: Andrew Painter is going to debut for the Phillies either against the Blue Jays at home on Friday, June 13th (gasp) or the following Thursday, June 19 against the Marlins in Miami. June 20 is at home, but it is against the Mets. I kind of doubt they want to have him debut against the top competition, but it is possible.

By promoting him to AAA so quickly though, there is the possibility that he debuts sooner. Should anything happen to the big club, Painter is ready to break glass in case of emergency. Does Aaron Nola need a phantom IL trip? Painter would very easily step in to take his spot in the rotation.

Painter is almost here.

What Does This Mean?

I’ve said it before, but GET EXCITED FOR ANDREW PAINTER!!! He is an elite pitching prospect at the level the Phillies have not seen in almost 20 years. Not since Cole Hamels gave up 1 hit in his afternoon debut against the Reds. Painter can solve a lot of issues on the club, some tangible and some intangible. By slotting him into the rotation now, he can provide extra rest to the starters during the dog days of summer. Come playoff time, he either moves a high leverage arm to the bullpen or goes himself. That’s one less arm to worry about.

Probably more importantly though, he will light a fire under the whole team. Who was the last highly touted rookie to debut for the Phillies mid-season? Was it Bohm back in 2020? When was the last pitcher? Christ, was it Nola back in 2015? It has been a LONG time since the team had a jolt in the arm like Andrew Painter. If he comes out and throws his 99mph heater down batters’ throats, the team is going to feel that. Imagine what that would have done for the Phillies last year in the midst of their mid summer malaise?

He changes everything.