Philly Front Office

UPDATE: I had to tweak this; no way are we getting Byron Buxton for what we are willing to give.

There are two versions of the Phillies offseason, one that includes Kyle Schwarber and one that doesn’t.  It’s not just the need to replace 56 HRs, 100+ RBIs, and his leadership, it’s the $30m that comes with signing him too.  The Phillies are going to spend that money (and a lot more) no matter what.  There was a time when the Phillies were cheap.  Not anymore.  Let’s take a look at the two outcomes based on the Phillies needs.

Including player benefits and arbitration, the Phillies have about $47.5m to spend under the final tax threshold.

…Schwarber Loves Us Not

FREE AGENCY

Kyle Schwarber re-signs with the Phillies for 4/$120m ($17.5m to spend)

With Kyle back in the fold the Phillies are out on the other big name free agents.  Dreams of Kyle Tucker or Bo Bichette bringing solid contact and plate discipline are dashed, but we’ve got dingers.  ALLLLLLL the dingers. 

JT Realmuto resigns for 2/$28m with a 3^rd year option and $2m buyout ($3.5m to spend)

This simply has to happen. In some ways, bringing JT back is more important than bringing Schwarber back because there simply are no other options at catcher.

Rob Refsnyder signs with the Phillies for 2/$5m ($1m to spend)

He isn’t a common name, but Refsnyder is one of the premier right-handed hitters in baseball with a .959 OPS. He is strictly a platoon OF at 35 years old, but he would provide a solid weakside platoon with Marsh in leftfield. I went through several different versions of this roster and getting a platoon rather than a brand new left fielder just makes the most financial sense.

Phillies Offseason Storylines

TRADES

Phillies Trade Alec Bohm to the Angels for Brock Burke ($9m to spend)

I know there is some debate about the value of Alec Bohm, but I just don’t see it. He is a light hitting, bad fielding, slow-ass malcontent who has no idea how to work a count. Yes, he hit .281 this year and struck out only 82 times, but that’s because he regularly swings so early in counts. I don’t see him as anything but a negative. This is a salary dump to get a decent reliever on a cheap contract in his last year of team control. If you can find another decent reliever on a team that needs a 3B, go ahead. Jo Adell is tempting to bring back in a trade, but last year’s power surge came at the expense of walks and strikeouts. This team does not need that, especially when…

Phillies Trade Nick Castellanos and $15m to Miami for No One We Will Ever Hear of Again ($14m to spend)

Even in this run it back world, there’s simply no room for Nick Castellanos and his awful at bats anymore.  Granted, he’s the only guy that ever seems to show up in the playoffs, but he is a black hole at the plate most of the year and a sieve on defense. He could go anywhere to anyone who wants to offset the most salary. I’m picking Miami since they showed interest in him last time (new management but still) and it’s his hometown. A guy like him, I could even see taking a decent buyout to go there.

Phillies Trade Aroon Escobar to St. Louis for Brendan Donovan ($8.25m to spend)

Is Brendan Donovan a huge upgrade over Alec Bohm, no. However, he is cheaper, under control for an extra year, strikes out less, and doesn’t come with nearly the same level of baggage. One bummer with this exchange is that Donovan does most of his damage against righties. As for Escobar, with Stott, Aiden Miller, and now Donovan plus Trea Turner showing the glove again if there is any position we can afford to deal from it is infield depth.

MLB Free Agency Predictions

Posting System

Phillies Sign Kazuma Okamoto for 5/$90m ($-9.75m to spend)

If the Phillies are going to go over their budget, it will be to sign a Japanese player. Okamoto provides solid plate discipline and contact skills while being legitimately able to play 1B, 3B, or LF. In this scenario he plays LF but gives Harper a breather at first whenever necessary. He hits from the right side too.

Overview

We are over budget. This may mean that despite a need for extra starting pitching, we trade Taijuan Walker for salary relief. It could also mean attaching an extra prospect with Castellanos on his trip out of town in order for the new team to eat more dollars of the contract. I wouldn’t be against it to facilitate this kind of offseason.

In this scenario we keep the power of Kyle Schwarber while adding some plate discipline from Donovan and Okamoto. All of my versions of this list had Harrison Bader coming back until recently when he said his goodbyes to the fans. There has not been any news of a signing yet though, so I am holding out hope. This means Crawford basically MUST play CF. There are simply not other options out there in CF.

This does not leave any room for more bullpen signings. This means we will need contributions from Gabe Craig or Cade Obermueller, two rookies from the most recent draft. Earlier I included Gage Wood, but he simply does not have enough innings under his belt to contribute this season.

Phillies Top Prospects Report: End of Season

C – JT Realmuto (R)

1 – Bryce Harper (L)

2 – Bryson Stott (L)

3 – Brendan Donovan (L)

SS – Trea Turner (R)

LF – Kazuma Okamoto (R)

CF – Justin Crawford (L)

RF – Marsh (L) / Refsnyder (R)

DH – Kyle Schwarber (L)

Bullpen – Duran, Strahm, Alvarado, Burke, Kerkering, Banks, Lazar, Craig

Rotation – Sanchez, Wheeler, Luzardo, Nola, Painter with Taijuan Walker