Philly Front Office

UPDATE: The Toronto Maple Leafs won the lottery. This means they keep their pick in 2026. Who gets next year’s pick is below, but admittedly the NHL needs to 100% clarify the whole choice thing…

The Flyers obviously made the playoffs this season and therefore do not have any ping pong balls in tonight’s lottery. They also have not made any trades to get any other ping pong balls either. HOWEVER…

The team to watch tonight is the Toronto Maple Leafs. They are precariously placed at the 5th best odds to win. Why am I singling them out? Because they have made a few trades that leave both them and us in peril. Back in 2025, the Leafs traded a future first to the Bruins for Brandon Carlo. That pick is Top 5 protected this season. If it lands outside the Top 5, it goes to those evil Bostonians. If it stays in the Top 5, that’s where we come in.

Thanks to the Scott Laughton trade, also from 2025, the Flyers are owed a first round pick from Toronto. That pick is either in 2027 or 2028, depending on where the 2026 pick lands. For some reason, if the Leafs land in the Top 5 this season then the status of the pick moves to 2027. If in 2027, that pick is outside the Top 10, it goes directly to the Flyers. If it lands in the Top 10 though, Toronto gets to choose who, the Bruins or the Flyers, gets that Top 10 pick. FYI, the Leafs hate the Bruins more than we do.

If for some reason the Leafs choose to give that pick to the Bruins, the Flyers would get the unprotected pick in 2028 instead. However, if the Leafs lose the pick this year, then the Flyers get the Leafs Top 10 protected pick in 2027 instead.

Needless to say, we need the Leafs to keep the pick. Here’s are the odds:

1. Vancouver Canucks 18.5%
2. Chicago Blackhawks 13.5%
3. New York Rangers 11.5%
4. Calgary Flames 9.5%
5. Toronto Maple Leafs 8.5%
6. Seattle Kraken 7.5%
7. Winnipeg Jets 6.5%
8. Florida Panthers 6.0%
9. San Jose Sharks 5.0%
10. Nashville Predators 3.5%
11. St. Louis Blues 3.0%
12. New Jersey Devils 2.5%
13. New York Islanders 2.0%
14. Columbus Blue Jackets 1.5%
15. St. Louis Blues (from DET) 0.5%
16. Washington Capitals 0.5%

Remember, in the NHL Draft Lottery, they have two separate drawings for the first pick and the second pick. The Leafs can finish 1st, 2nd, 5th or in the abyss beyond that.