PSP: Free Agent Flashback 1 – Harper vs Machado

Twice now the Padres and Phillies have battled over the two biggest free agents on the market. Both times, the Phillies won the prize and the Padres received the consolation. How has it gone since then (don’t worry, this is not some wacko hit piece)? Let’s take a look at the choice of Bryce Harper over Manny Machado now and then and Trea Turner over Xander Bogaerts next week when the teams square off again.

Monday, May 25 at 6:40p – Jesus Luzardo v Randy Vasquez (R)
Tuesday, May 26 at 9:40p – Aaron Nola v Griffin Canning (R)
Wednesday, May 27 at 4:10p – Cristopher Sanchez v Walker Buehler (R)
Petco Park – San Diego, CA

On February 28th, 2019, the Phillies signed Bryce Harper to a 13/$330m contract that featured a no trade clause and no opt-outs. For better and for worse, the two were locked in together. Of course, Harper wasn’t the only free agent the Phillies talked to. Famously, Manny Machado came to Philadelphia on December 20th, 2018 and was greeted by an electrician outside the stadium who told him to “do the right thing and sign.” The Phillies even offered him a reported 8/$225m at that meeting and more later. He ended up signing a 10/$300m contract with an opt out clause after 4 years with San Diego. A week later, Harper signed with the Phillies.¹

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The two have had remarkably similar careers. Both came up in 2012 at age 19, have made a ton of All-Star teams, and made the World Series. While Harper has two MVP awards, Machado has the higher lifetime WAR (61.4 to 55.2). There was a very good argument to be made that following the 2018 season Machado was the bigger star. Sure, Harper had the name recognition, but he was coming off a down final season with the Nationals that turned him into a villain while Machado had a 6 WAR season split between the Orioles and Dodgers that ended with a World Series appearance. Here are the stats as of that free agent winter:

	Games	WAR	HR	2B	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Harper	927	27.7	184	183	.279	.388	.512	.900
Machado	926	34.6	175	211	.282	.335	.487	.822

While Machado could play shortstop or 3rd Base, Harper was a corner outfielder only. What Harper didn’t have to do though was defend his effort. Sure, he was very much known as a hothead and the Nationals PR machine completely ripped him as a greedy athlete, but Machado gave an unfortunate interview where he acknowledged that he’s no “Johnny Hustle.” Yikes, that’s a bad soundbite. The rest is history.

Since joining their new teams, the doubles and HRs have flipped, but they are still essentially the same players. That being said, Harper is starting to pull ahead:

	Games	WAR	HR	2B	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Harper	911	27.5	191	228	.281	.384	.526	.910
Machado	1018	26.8	202	190	.270	.337	.479	.815

While the averages all favor Harper, the WAR lead was actually Machado’s until this season. While Harper is looking pretty good, Machado has been terrible in the early going with a -.4 WAR on the season. Considering the tougher defensive assignment, you can probably call this a draw so far. The Phillies are the big winner going forward though. Why? The contracts.

Going from the original deals, Machado would only have 2 more seasons left at $30m a piece. Unfortunately for the Padres, Machado exercised the opt-out in his contract after his 4th season. That just so happened to be the year he finished 2nd in MVP voting and led the team to the NLCS (where he lost to Harper’s “swing of his life”). Needless to say, his value could not be higher. The two sides agreed to a new 11/$350m deal that lasts until after the 2033 season when he will be 40 years old and making $39m per season. There is still 7/$273m worth of meat on that bone. That’s a scary proposition for new Padres’ ownership.

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As for Harper, his contract famously locked everything in. While this was probably a bad move for him financially (see Machado’s extension), the incredible 13-year length made things both financially good for the team and VERY scary. Certainly, the second half of the deal would age horribly, right? Well, not really. Time has flown by and Harper only has 5/$125.5m remaining after this season. You’d sign him for that right now in a heartbeat. His yearly salary actually goes down starting in 2029. Considering Machado has more than double Harper’s cash going to him and is already the lesser player, this ended up a huge win for the Phillies. The Padres never regretted their original deal, but the follow up is going to hurt. The Phillies on the other hand are close to seeing through one of the better huge free agent deals of all time.

Photo: Getty Images