Lately I’ve been hearing a lot that the Phillies need to be “all in” at the trade deadline this year. Not going to lie, it sounds like a great idea. Harper, Schwarber, and Wheeler aren’t getting any younger and we have been soooo close the last few years. If only we had gone “all in” at other deadlines! Ok, so we have established that we should be “all in” this season. I feel good about that. Wait a second…what in the world does “all in” even mean?
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MLB Trade Deadline
All In #1: Sell the Farm for an Elite Talent
I think this is what “all in” means to the average fan. It’s what I think “all in” is supposed to mean at least. You sell your top prospects for a star to take your team over the top. Unfortunately, in this market that only means one guy or possibly two: Tarik Skubal or Byron Buxton.
Skubal is the one guy out there who everyone knows is available and would truly mean an “all in” level of prospect haul. Even though he is strictly a rental, he is still going to require a top level prospect to get him plus more. He’s a game changer. There are two problems with that. First, the Phillies might not have the level of prospect the Tigers want for him. They would want a healthy Aiden Miller in exchange and we do not have a healthy Aiden Miller. Would they take Gage Wood instead? Maybe, but other pitching heavy teams can beat Gage Wood in a prospect fight. Let’s take the Dodgers. If Blake Snell and Tyler Glasnow come back healthy, they probably aren’t looking for help, but if not they have FIVE prospects ranked higher than Wood according to MLB. The Mariners have five too, you think they won’t want to go “all in”?
The second problem is need. The Phillies don’t need Tarik Skubal. Sure, we would love to have a two-time reigning Cy Young winner, but Sanchez, Wheeler, and Luzardo is a big boy playoff rotation. It’s simply not out biggest need, not even close.
The biggest need is an outfield bat, or any bat for that matter. Byron Buxton is that bat. Not only is he crushing the ball and back to playing great defense in center, but his contract is one of the best in the league. He has two years after this one at $15m per season. Outstanding! Ok, sign us up, right? Well, two things here two. First, everyone is going to want Buxton because outfield bats are at a premium so we have the same problem as above. Second, every season people fantasize about Buxton only for him to say he will not waive his no trade clause. Well, guess what? The Twins are only 2 games out of the playoffs as of today. Even if they fall out of contention, he might not be available.
Is there any other singular, available talent worth selling the farm for? Not really. So that’s one guy available at a position we don’t need. Awesome!
All In #2: Plug the Holes
The Phillies do not have a gaping hole on the roster, but that isn’t to say we don’t have water leaking in. What I mean is that we have a #1 starter, in fact we have two. We have two elite bats in Harper and Schwarber with Marsh hovering around the .900 OPS mark himself. We even have a dominant closer in Jhoan Duran. Those would be big leaks. Instead, we need a 5th starter, a quality setup man, a corner outfielder, and it would be nice to have an upgrade in the infield. It feels like a cartoon where Bugs Bunny is trying to stick his fingers in the holes of a leaky dam. There might just be too many of them.
5th Starter: I said 5th starter, but what I really mean is a 4th playoff arm that can get through a lineup twice and gives a solid chance to win every 5th day. We do not need Skubal or Joe Ryan from the Twins. Take it down two notches. Think Foster Griffin from the Nationals if they fall out, Trevor Rogers from Baltimore who has fallen back to Earth after last year, or Antonio Senzatela from the Rockies.1 They will not take too much of a prospect haul and would be dramatic improvements over what we have been throwing out there this season in the 5th slot.
Setup Man: Brad Keller is currently on the shelf but he has not been as advertised so far. He’s fine, but not Ryan Madson before Brad Lidge level good. He and Orion Kerkering have been 7th inning level guys and that’s not going to cut it. Like Danny Ocean, we need one more. Despite being 38, the prize right now is Aroldis Chapman from the Red Sox. Not only do they stink, but he’s a lefty and still pumping serious heat. What about bringing back Jeff Hoffman? His ERA numbers are bad, but his peripherals have been solid. Because his one remaining year at $12m in salary is so bad, he likely would not cost too much to reunite with Caleb Cotham. The best arm on the market though might be Luke Weaver from the Mets. Are you prepared for that possible trade (bites nails furiously)?
Corner Outfielder (preferably a righty): It’s pretty much Taylor Ward and Jo Adell right now. Ward has been an on-base machine this season, completely sacrificing his power surge from last year. Even when he hasn’t been hitting, he has been walking like a badass. For a right hander, sign me up! I’ll take a .388 OBP without power to sit between Harper and Marsh in the lineup, anything to keep Alec Bohm out of there. Adell is the better fielder in right, but far below Ward in terms of batter’s eye with just 10 walks to 82 Ks as of this writing. He would still be a tremendous improvement over the Gabriel Rincones black hole we have going now. As for left handers, there is old friend Mickey Moniak who is currently hurt but has been crushing the ball this year from the left side and Jung Hoo Lee of the Giants. Lee is currently hitting well over .300 against both lefties and righties, doesn’t walk or strikeout, and his minimal power. I would like him more if his contract wasn’t so bloated. $23.25m this year and next before he can opt out of the final 2/$41m of his contract. That’s brutal for a guy who only has a few months of quality hitting in MLB. Probably wouldn’t cost too much though.
Infield Upgrade: Stott and Bohm are hitting better now than in April, but it’s not like they aren’t replaceable bats. Plus, if a significant outfield bat isn’t in the cards, then we would have to expand our search. Is there anyone out there? If you are thinking Matt Chapman, let me stop you right there. While he is a tremendous fielder, his bat isn’t much better than Bohm’s and his contract has 4/$100m on it AFTER this season. Yikes! They would have to pay like half the contract to move that thing. No thank you. How about his teammate though, Luis Arraez? He is going to be a hot name this deadline because he finally learned how to play 2nd base to go along with his usual high batting average. No, I am not suggesting we get rid of Stott. Instead, how about moving Stott to 3rd and if we can’t dump Bohm on someone, platoon them? I’m not going to get into the possibility of moving Bryce back to the outfield because it does not seem very likely.
So, All In?
While the term “All In” seems really fun, it just doesn’t apply at this deadline. No one in the 2nd option is going to individually deplete the farm system and even together won’t require moving any of Miller, Wood, or Venezuelan wunderkind Francisco Renteria. As for the depth behind them? Consider them gone. Wouldn’t it be worth it though to have a competent 5th starter, a solid setup man, and a lineup without so many .600 OPSs??? This is truly a quantity over quality trade deadline.
Stats: Baseball Reference
Salary: Spotrac
Photo: Darren Yamashita-Imagn Images
- This guy was terrible last year, but has been certifiably Lorenzenian so far this year ↩︎
Philly Front Office 
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