EDITOR’S NOTE: I screwed up yesterday. Because I mistakenly thought the Phillies were starting their series with the Royals on Friday, like you do, I wrote about George Brett and the Pine Tar Game instead of writing this and ran out of time. Getting this out now because this kind of transaction is why I have the website.
The Flyers have signed Anaheim Ducks star center to a massive 5/$90m offer sheet. Just what does that mean?
Restricted Free Agency
Carlsson was drafted 2nd overall in 2023, right behind Connor Bedard and a few picks ahead of Matvei Michkov. Because he signed right away, he hits restricted free agency this summer. As a restricted free agent, Carlsson is eligible to seek an offer sheet from other teams. An offer sheet is a signed contract just with the name of the team essentially left blank. That means the original team, in this case the Ducks, has the right of first refusal to put their name on the dotted line next to his. They have one week to make that decision.
If they do, the contract is thiers. They can’t renegotiate because the contract is already considered binding with Carlsson. No penalty to the Flyers other than having $18m in cap room tied up.
If the Ducks decline to match, they are not without compensation. There are 6 levels to restricted free agency depending on the AAV of the deal:
- $1,575,969 to $2,387,832 = 3rd round pick
- $2,387,832 to $4,775,666 = 2nd round pick
- $4,775,666 to $7,163,498 = 1st and 3rd round picks
- $7,163,498 to $9,551,332 = 1st, 2nd, and 3rd round picks
- $9,551,332 to $11,939,166 = Two 1sts, a 2nd, and a 3rd round pick
- $11,939,166 and up = Four 1st round picks
Yup, this deal comfortably lands in the last tier. The Flyers would send 1st round picks for the next 4 years to Anaheim. Of course we would still have an extra one from Toronto on the way in 2027 or 2028, but it’s still a haul. Carlsson is worth it (we hope).
Well, Is He Worth It?
The immortal words of Disco Stu, “if these trends continue…ayyyyy.” The start of Carlsson’s career has not been a meteoric rise like Macklin Celebrini in San Jose, but rather a steady climb from 29 points in 55 games as a rookie, to 45 in 76 games as a sophomore, and now 67 in 70 games this past season. That nearly a point per game pace is not what the Flyers are trying to pay for. They see Carlsson as a 1st line center capable of 100 point seasons. Considering he is just 21, Disco Stu might be right.
Of course, there’s always the possibility that he tops out at roughly a point per game. That’s very good, but not franchise altering, 4 first round picks, $18m per season good. It’s a risk.
The Flyers
This is obviously a risk the Flyers are willing to take. Why? Because they have been stuck in the purgatory of too many role players and not enough stars for too long. They are clearly good, but also clearly not good enough.
One problem with adding Carlsson though, how do they fit him in? Not only will he have a big cap number, but the team now has like 16 forwards with Claude Giroux back. The Flyers started the offseason with around $30m to spend, but after the Carlsson offer sheet are down to $12m -ish. That’s not enough to sign RFAs Trevor Zegras and Jamie Drysdale.
This could mean that Trevor Zegras is allowed to sign elsewhere or traded. Probably not though. Instead, I’m assuming they have a deal with him already worked out and other trades in the hopper depending on what happens with Carlsson. Someone like Owen Tippett or even Travis Konecny could be on the way out. I think it’s safe to say Rasmus Ristolainen is finally traded.
Will Anaheim Match?
This is the big question. The Flyers have crafted the contract in very Howie Roseman-esque ways made up mostly of huge year beginning bonuses:
- $850k salary + $19.95M bonus
- $900k salary + $18.1M bonus
- $950k salary + $17.05M bonus
- $1M salary + $15.2M bonus
- $1M salary + $15M bonus
This is designed to put cash pressure on the Ducks each season. Their owner is VERY rich, but they might not like the thought of the cash outlay. Further, $18m per season makes Carlsson the highest paid player in hockey. He beats Kirill Kaprizov by $1m and second place Leon Draisaitl by $4m. That’s crazy.
The Ducks also have to pay old friend Cutter Gauthier this summer. When he sees what the Flyers of all teams are offering his teammate, the 40 goal phenom is going to want something similar. The Ducks have cap space, but tying it up 100% with these two was probably not the plan.
This offseason is far from over for the Flyers. We’ll see how everything looks in 6 more days.
Philly Front Office 
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