Assuming good health (**cough** Zack Wheeler), the Phillies have 3 top end starters and one rotation staple who is not going anywhere. The Phillies are now 5-20 on the season when the 5th starter takes the hill. While you can’t expect that slot to win all the time, .500 isn’t a crazy expectation either. Granted, the Phillies provide basically no competitive run support for that starter either, but they also know they are toast going in. Let’s see if there is anyway to fix that.
On this list there will be no Tarik Skubal, Joe Ryan, or any other top-level starter. We need competence and we need it on the cheap. Is that too much to ask for? Here are the trade targets ranked by how much it will take to get them.
Trade Package Key: Low = 1 Top 10 system prospect or less; Medium = 2-3 Top 10 system prospects but no Top 100 overall; High = At least 1 Top 100 overall prospect
- Walker Buehler
- Team: Padres
- Contract: 1/$1.5m
- Trade Package: Low
- Summary: Bring him back! I don’t think I’ll ever understand why they didn’t beat that nothing contract just to have Buehler around for depth purposes. Instead the Phillies went with Taijuan Walker. Awesome. Not that Buehler is any good, but he is at least serviceable and goes around 5 innings per start. That works!
- Tyler Mahle
- Team: Giants
- Contract: 1/$10m
- Trade Package: Low
- Summary: Another prototypical 5th starter. Mahle’s ERA is hovering around 5 and his salary is too high to ask for anything decent.
- Patrick Corbin
- Team: Blue Jays
- Contract: 1/$950k
- Trade Package: Low
- Summary: Here’s the good and the bad of someone like Corbin. He was the butt of so many jokes for his contract and performance with the Nationals, but that always ignored his mostly solid FIP that was always better than his ERA. The same thing is happening this year with an ERA in the 5s and a FIP in the mid-4s. That being said, if he is someone who needs good fielders behind him, the Phillies would be a TERRIBLE landing spot for him.
- Brady Singer
- Team: Reds
- Contract: 1/$12.75m
- Trade Package: Low-Medium
- Summary: Singer has mid-rotation performance in his history, but it hasn’t shown up this year. His walks are way down this year but so are his strikeouts while his HRs are on the rise. The high contract for his production should keep the price low
- Trevor Rogers
- Team: Orioles
- Contract: 1/$6.2m
- Trade Package: Low-Medium
- Summary: Starting pitcher prices are always inflated, but the combination of one year remaining on his contract and a return to career norms after last season’s unbelievable run keeps the cost tolerable for Rogers.
- Nick Lodolo
- Team: Reds
- Contract: 1/$4.7m (plus 1 year Arb)
- Trade Package: Low-Medium
- Summary: Lodolo has killed the Phillies his entire career so I am most interested in him simply not going to a competitor. His production is down this season, mostly due to injury, but he is still a solid pitcher. The one year left of reasonably cheap control could interest a Phillies team that was caught with its pants down this year with pitching depth
- Jack Flaherty
- Team: Tigers
- Contract: 1/$17.5m
- Trade Package: Low-Medium
- Summary: Despite occasional glimpses of greatness and others of total incompetence, Flaherty at this point in his career is an average pitcher. He has good strikeout numbers and gives up too many walks but he keeps the ball in the park. He’s pricey but that should be negotiable.
- Bailey Ober
- Team: Twins
- Contract: 1/$5.2m (plus 1 year of Arb)
- Trade Package: Low-Medium
- Summary: The platonic ideal of a 5th starter. Nothing flashy in the least. Mid 4s ERA backed up by FIP. Very average counting stats. Averages just over 5 innings per start. Should have been here a month ago.
- Shane Bieber
- Team: Blue Jays
- Contract: 1/$10.5m
- Trade Package: Low-Medium
- Summary: You are paying for the name and hope here. He is just back from the IL and throwing…ok. Does he still have much left in him? Probably not
- Freddy Peralta
- Team: Mets
- Contract: 1/$8m
- Trade Package: Medium
- Summary: Someone is probably going to give the Mets a little too much for Peralta who is mired in his worst season since his sophomore year. After last year went so well, this year has been a wreck. Still, that last year was REALLY good. You could easily convince yourself of the upside here while seeing his current self as an upgrade at the back end.
- Dustin May
- Team: Cardinals
- Contract: 1/$12.5m (plus a $20m mutual option)
- Trade Package: Medium
- Summary: May’s ERA is trash but everything else says he is back to being a good pitcher: walks are low, Ks are high, and only 7 HRs allowed in 100+ innings. He doesn’t work deep into games, but 5 innings an outing would be just fine.
- Foster Griffin
- Team: Nationals
- Contract: 1/$5.5m
- Trade Package: Medium High
- Summary: Griffin is having a great season back from Japan. His track record isn’t great though and neither is his FIP, so there is a little worry about him turning into a pumpkin. The Nationals would be wise to sell him now then to try to sign him back in the offseason.
- Reid Detmers
- Team: Angels
- Contract: 1/$2.6m (plus 2 years of Arb)
- Trade Package: Medium-High
- Summary: Detmers is having his second consecutive good season and would lock down the rotation with his ability to go somewhat deep into games and minimize damage. He’s more of a #3 starter and that’s perfect.
- Sandy Alcantara
- Team: Marlins
- Contract: 1/$11.2m (team option for $21m)
- Trade Package: Medium-High
- Summary: The name Sandy Alcantara is much more impressive than the last 3 years of Alcantara on the mound. His elbow injury sapped what made him of the elite starters in baseball. That Sandy isn’t coming back, but he is still a solid mid-rotation arm who soaks up a ton of innings. He was never a huge strikeout pitcher, but those numbers are still down while his HR numbers are too high.
- Casey Mize
- Team: Tigers
- Contract: 1/$6.15m
- Trade Package: High
- Summary: If the Phillies wanted to go high without breaking the prospect bank TOO much, Mize would be the guy. He is enjoying his finest season in the majors but does not have the track record to back it up including two short playoff starts. He will end up costing half of what Skubal costs in terms of prospects at 1/5 the contract
Contracts: Spotrac.com
Photo: Chris Coduto/Getty Images
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